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Author Topic: Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?  (Read 2513 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: June 19, 2012, 06:46:40 am »
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Seems like we have quite a large number of incumbent governors with terrible job approval ratings at the moment.  Of course, two years is a political eternity.  But assuming that some of these incumbents face at least the prospect of a competitive race in 2014, who are some of the 2014 gubernatorial candidates who might realistically run and have the potential to win?  I'm especially curious about some of the larger states, like FL, IL, PA, MI, etc.
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« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2012, 07:05:05 am »
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I am not sure to be frank... the issue with Democrats in Florida is that their bench is thin- a South Florida Democrat can't win where I live and there aren't many North Florida Democrats who can make it thru a primary. Sink was a great candidate as she lived in Tampa but had a drawl...
I know who will not be the next Governor- Charlie Crist
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« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2012, 07:21:15 am »
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Isn't there buzz that Sink might run again?
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« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2012, 08:10:18 am »
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OH: Kasich is pretty unpopular and could be beaten by a number of Ohio Democrats, but Richard Cordray pretty much has the right of first refusal here.  And barring some sort of massive unforeseeable event or scandal, Cordray would beat Kasich.  In fact, Cordray would be favored even if Kasich weren't so unpopular, but since he is, he may well be DOA (although it's too early to make that assumption atm).

Florida: Rod Smith seems like he might be a strong statewide candidate.  Buddy Dyer is another possibility.  Clarence is right that it won't be Crist.  But whoever the Democratic nominee is, it is important to remember that they will probably be running against Rick Scott (Scott probably has enough tea-party support to survive any primary challenge and doesn't strike me as someone who would agree to not run for reelection for the good of the Republican party).  This may end up canceling out many of the usual disadvantages Democrats face when running in statewide elections in Florida.  In any event, the bar for how strong a Democrat needs to be to win this race is much lower in this race than it normally is in Florida.

Pennsylvania: Some of this depends on who wins the statewide offices that are up this year. 

Michigan: Idk, but given the natural Democratic tilt of the state, I have a hard time imagining that the state Democratic party is too weak to find an electable candidate here.  2010 was a fluke.

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« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2012, 10:24:30 am »
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Sestak might run in PA.
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« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2012, 07:01:04 pm »
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Iowa: Braley, Vilsack and Culver have all been floated. But given that Branstad's approvals have looked a lot better from non-PPP sources, they may choose not to run.

Michigan: Hansen Clarke or Ving Bergano?

Ohio: Probably Cordray's seat as Mr X has suggested, but Strickland or Ryan could make a run as well. Or maybe even Kuninich. Tongue

Pennsylvania: People have floated Sestak, what about Holden or Altmire who have lost their House seats?

Wisconsin: Only Feingold could really test him here. I feel that Kind will run for Johnson's seat in 2016.

South Carolina: Sheheen? I don't see any other real candidates, lol.

Florida: Many people can run here and have a good chance of winning - Crist, Sink, Rich, maybe even DWS or Grayson Tongue

Texas: Maybe try Bill White or Chet Edwards?

Arizona: Goddard probably, though Giffords should run if she's mostly recovered.

Nebraska: Looks like Sheehy's running here.

Arkansas: Although the Democrats are struggling here, I think Ross and McDaniel are stronger candidates than anything the Republicans have to offer.

Maryland: Brown's probably favoured, although Franchot and Gansler could get the nomination as well. I don't see any Reps who could win here except maybe Steele or Erlich.

Massachusetts: Probably Murray's seat, though I can see Brown running if he loses to Warren.

Maine: Cutler can run as an Independent, or Pingree (both?) or Michaud can run as Dems.

Connecticut: Foley appears to be running again, though it'll probably be easier for the Reps if they run Simmons or Shays.

Hawaii: Djou?

Rhode Island: Don't know. Robatille will probably get the R nomination, though.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2012, 07:03:02 am »
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Michigan: Hansen Clarke or Ving Bergano?

I assume you mean Virgil Bernero?

Btw, this column adds Jocelyn Benson and Gretchen Whitmer as possible Michigan 2014 gubernatorial candidates (though it looks like Benson has never held public office, so she'd be a longshot):

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/02/looking_ahead_to_2014_who_will.html

What about Illinois?  Pat Quinn only barely won against mediocre competition in 2010, and he's gotten less popular since then, hasn't he?  So does the GOP have a chance?

And what about California?  Is Brown even certain to run for reelection?  He'd be 80 years old when a hypothetical second term ends.
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« Reply #7 on: June 20, 2012, 08:15:40 am »
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Michigan: Hansen Clarke or Ving Bergano?

I assume you mean Virgil Bernero?

Btw, this column adds Jocelyn Benson and Gretchen Whitmer as possible Michigan 2014 gubernatorial candidates (though it looks like Benson has never held public office, so she'd be a longshot):

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/02/looking_ahead_to_2014_who_will.html

What about Illinois?  Pat Quinn only barely won against mediocre competition in 2010, and he's gotten less popular since then, hasn't he?  So does the GOP have a chance?

And what about California?  Is Brown even certain to run for reelection?  He'd be 80 years old when a hypothetical second term ends.


IIRC Benson narrowly lost the race for Michigan Secretary of State in 2010, despite being a first-time candidate (I think).  Whitmer would definitely be a strong candidate.  If he has appeal to white voters and did a good job as Mayor (idk if either is the case), maybe Dennis Archer.  Gary Peters (assuming he beats Clarke) would be a strong candidate although I suspect that he is more interested in running for Senate whenever Carl Levin decides not to run for reelection.  In any event, I am pretty sure that there won't be any problem finding a good candidate to run against Snyder, especially if he is still highly unpopular (although I think he'll probably face a tough race no matter what). 

I don't think Brown has anything to worry about atm and if he doesn't run for reelection, there are bound to be plenty of Democrats waiting in the wings (Newsom, Harris, etc). 

It's to early to say what will happen in Illinois (even more so than in MI or CA).  Quinn may not run for reelection, the Republicans may nominate a very weak or unusually strong candidate.  This race is currently defined by known unknowns.
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« Reply #8 on: June 20, 2012, 08:27:19 am »
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Brown's approvals are currently -27, but it has been a long time since a Californian governor has lost re-election.
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« Reply #9 on: June 20, 2012, 08:56:29 am »
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Holden or Altmire for Governor? Good luck winning the primary.
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« Reply #10 on: June 20, 2012, 09:03:12 am »
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Florida: Many people can run here and have a good chance of winning - Crist, Sink, Rich, maybe even DWS or Grayson Tongue

You're right about the first three. I'd prefer Sink myself as she seems to have a good head on her sholders and isn't as much of an opportunistic slimeball as Crist. But DWS or Grayson? Nope. Neither have the tempriment to win over Republicans leaners, and while it may look like a cakewalk against Scott now, you'll get Republicans running back to his side against those two. DWS also faces the problem of being too much of a national figure; it'd be easy to link her to the national party and paint her as extreme.
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« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2012, 02:59:22 pm »
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Last I heard, Tom Corbett (PA) didn't have really bad numbers.  Here are some of my preferred potential candidates, all of whom I believe may win:

IL: Dan Rutherford (R)
MI: Bill Schuette (R)
FL: Bill McCollum (R) or Pam Bondi (R)
CT: Rob Simmons (R)
OH: Mike DeWine (R)
PA: Bill Scranton III (R)
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« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2012, 03:03:13 pm »
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OH: Kasich is pretty unpopular and could be beaten by a number of Ohio Democrats, but Richard Cordray pretty much has the right of first refusal here.  And barring some sort of massive unforeseeable event or scandal, Cordray would beat Kasich.  In fact, Cordray would be favored even if Kasich weren't so unpopular, but since he is, he may well be DOA (although it's too early to make that assumption atm).

Florida: Rod Smith seems like he might be a strong statewide candidate.  Buddy Dyer is another possibility.  Clarence is right that it won't be Crist.  But whoever the Democratic nominee is, it is important to remember that they will probably be running against Rick Scott (Scott probably has enough tea-party support to survive any primary challenge and doesn't strike me as someone who would agree to not run for reelection for the good of the Republican party).  This may end up canceling out many of the usual disadvantages Democrats face when running in statewide elections in Florida.  In any event, the bar for how strong a Democrat needs to be to win this race is much lower in this race than it normally is in Florida.

Pennsylvania: Some of this depends on who wins the statewide offices that are up this year. 

Michigan: Idk, but given the natural Democratic tilt of the state, I have a hard time imagining that the state Democratic party is too weak to find an electable candidate here.  2010 was a fluke.


Michigan is a swing state.  Gore only carried it by 5 points in 2000 and Kerry only took it by 3 points in 2004.  Obama's margin in 2008 was the real fluke.  Gov. Snyder has said that he won't run again if he accomplishes what he wants to by the next election.  I predict Bill Schuette will get the GOP nomination and win the general election.
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« Reply #13 on: June 21, 2012, 03:30:29 pm »
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Last I heard, Tom Corbett (PA) didn't have really bad numbers.

36% approval isn't exactly great.
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« Reply #14 on: June 21, 2012, 03:56:26 pm »
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Iowa: Braley, Vilsack and Culver have all been floated. But given that Branstad's approvals have looked a lot better from non-PPP sources, they may choose not to run.

Michigan: Hansen Clarke or Ving Bergano?

Ohio: Probably Cordray's seat as Mr X has suggested, but Strickland or Ryan could make a run as well. Or maybe even Kuninich. Tongue

Pennsylvania: People have floated Sestak, what about Holden or Altmire who have lost their House seats?

Wisconsin: Only Feingold could really test him here. I feel that Kind will run for Johnson's seat in 2016.

South Carolina: Sheheen? I don't see any other real candidates, lol.

Florida: Many people can run here and have a good chance of winning - Crist, Sink, Rich, maybe even DWS or Grayson Tongue

Texas: Maybe try Bill White or Chet Edwards?

Arizona: Goddard probably, though Giffords should run if she's mostly recovered.

Nebraska: Looks like Sheehy's running here.

Arkansas: Although the Democrats are struggling here, I think Ross and McDaniel are stronger candidates than anything the Republicans have to offer.

Maryland: Brown's probably favoured, although Franchot and Gansler could get the nomination as well. I don't see any Reps who could win here except maybe Steele or Erlich.

Massachusetts: Probably Murray's seat, though I can see Brown running if he loses to Warren.

Maine: Cutler can run as an Independent, or Pingree (both?) or Michaud can run as Dems.

Connecticut: Foley appears to be running again, though it'll probably be easier for the Reps if they run Simmons or Shays.

Hawaii: Djou?

Rhode Island: Don't know. Robatille will probably get the R nomination, though.
Maryland-No Elrich isn't running again. He only ran again for Governor in 2010 because he saw it was going to be a huge Republican year. Steele-maybe maybe not. Maryland has only had one Republican Governor since the decade of the 70's and that was Elrich from 2003-2006.

Arizona-Giffords is going for McCain's US Senate seat wether McCain retires or not in 2016 I believe.

Connecticut-It looks like a pick-up for the R's right now.
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« Reply #15 on: June 21, 2012, 04:02:13 pm »
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OH: Kasich is pretty unpopular and could be beaten by a number of Ohio Democrats, but Richard Cordray pretty much has the right of first refusal here.  And barring some sort of massive unforeseeable event or scandal, Cordray would beat Kasich.  In fact, Cordray would be favored even if Kasich weren't so unpopular, but since he is, he may well be DOA (although it's too early to make that assumption atm).

Florida: Rod Smith seems like he might be a strong statewide candidate.  Buddy Dyer is another possibility.  Clarence is right that it won't be Crist.  But whoever the Democratic nominee is, it is important to remember that they will probably be running against Rick Scott (Scott probably has enough tea-party support to survive any primary challenge and doesn't strike me as someone who would agree to not run for reelection for the good of the Republican party).  This may end up canceling out many of the usual disadvantages Democrats face when running in statewide elections in Florida.  In any event, the bar for how strong a Democrat needs to be to win this race is much lower in this race than it normally is in Florida.

Pennsylvania: Some of this depends on who wins the statewide offices that are up this year. 

Michigan: Idk, but given the natural Democratic tilt of the state, I have a hard time imagining that the state Democratic party is too weak to find an electable candidate here.  2010 was a fluke.


Michigan is a swing state.  Gore only carried it by 5 points in 2000 and Kerry only took it by 3 points in 2004.  Obama's margin in 2008 was the real fluke.  Gov. Snyder has said that he won't run again if he accomplishes what he wants to by the next electionI predict Bill Schuette will get the GOP nomination and win the general election.
So basically Snyder is pulling a Matt Blunt in leaving when he accomplishes everything that he want to accomplish. I thought it would be hard for a Republican to win the governorship after or when Snyder decides to leave.
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« Reply #16 on: June 21, 2012, 05:47:13 pm »
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Maybe Meg Whitman in California?
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« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2012, 02:04:56 pm »
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The Republicans will have a much easier time holding on if Snyder doesn't run again, and Bill Schuette would be a strong candidate for Republicans to put up.
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« Reply #18 on: June 23, 2012, 04:08:42 pm »
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State Sen Kirk Dillard is one to watch in IL. He lost the 2010 primary by less than 200 votes due to a fragmented suburban field (Brady was the only downstate candidate of the 7). Virtually every inside observer has remarked that he would have performed roughly the same as Mark Kirk in the general had he been the nominee.
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« Reply #19 on: June 23, 2012, 06:55:30 pm »
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People need to stop looking at candidates who have lost as their saving grace.
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Senator Meiji (D-NC)
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« Reply #20 on: June 23, 2012, 07:14:15 pm »
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Florida: Sink can win this time: even though she's not that good a campaigner and kinda a moderate hero, she's not Scott. Rod Smith was actually Sink's Lt. Gov. running mate, and is a Blue Dog type guy. There's a good group of mayors (Alvin Brown of Jacksonville, Buddy Dyer of Orlando, Jack Seiler of Ft. Lauderdale, Pam Iorio of Tampa), but they really only have appeal in their localities. State Sens. Jeremy Ring, Nan Rich, Dave Aronberg, and Dan Gelber all seem like decent people, but they're from South Florida, so no. So there's a pretty good group of Democrats who, excluding Sink & Smith, can't win, and I don't like Sink or Smith (and they'd be a 50-50 shot). Really, there's only 3 "Democrats" who can win statewide. Those 3 "Democrats" are Gov. Bob Graham, Sen. Bill Nelson, and Gov. Charlie Crist. Bob Graham probably won't return, and Bill Nelson'd only run if he lost his Senate election (which he won't). So you're left with one option: Charlie.
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« Reply #21 on: June 24, 2012, 08:37:57 am »
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Pennsylvania: People have floated Sestak, what about Holden or Altmire who have lost their House seats?

Wisconsin: Only Feingold could really test him here. I feel that Kind will run for Johnson's seat in 2016.

South Carolina: Sheheen? I don't see any other real candidates, lol.

Florida: Many people can run here and have a good chance of winning - Crist, Sink, Rich, maybe even DWS or Grayson Tongue

Texas: Maybe try Bill White or Chet Edwards?

Arizona: Goddard probably, though Giffords should run if she's mostly recovered.

Nebraska: Looks like Sheehy's running here.

Arkansas: Although the Democrats are struggling here, I think Ross and McDaniel are stronger candidates than anything the Republicans have to offer.

Maryland: Brown's probably favoured, although Franchot and Gansler could get the nomination as well. I don't see any Reps who could win here except maybe Steele or Erlich.

Massachusetts: Probably Murray's seat, though I can see Brown running if he loses to Warren.

Maine: Cutler can run as an Independent, or Pingree (both?) or Michaud can run as Dems.

Connecticut: Foley appears to be running again, though it'll probably be easier for the Reps if they run Simmons or Shays.

Hawaii: Djou?

Rhode Island: Don't know. Robatille will probably get the R nomination, though.
Sestak would have a better electoral history than anyone who lost a US House race. Plus, he's better known throughout the state. He will be in his 60s. But so was Corbett.
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« Reply #22 on: June 24, 2012, 09:06:14 am »
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Did the buzz around Lisa Madigan die when she didn't run for the Obama seat?
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« Reply #23 on: June 24, 2012, 10:56:02 am »
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My guess is that Perry and Brown don't run for reelection. Perry would be in office for 14 years. Brown would be 76, and he already had his comeback. So those would be the major elections.

If Cruz loses the Senate primary against Dewhurst, I think he would be the top contender for the Republican party's nomination.

If Cruz is elected to the Senate, it would be an interesting primary due to the sheer size of the Republican bench.

The Democratic field for the 2012 election for Senate in Texas is so weak that they'll likely go with token opposition in 2014.

Gavin Newsom is probably the first in line for the California democratic primary. At the moment, it seems like the top Republicans would be either Whitman or Fiorina, whoever has more interest in running.

In New York, I suspect Cuomo would face token opposition.

In Florida, Rick Scott seems like the type of guy who would run for a second term even if his approval rating continued to be in the toilet. And he has enough support amongst Republicans to avoid a primary. I'm not sure who the Democratic nominee will be. Crist will be valuable in national politics, because of what it says about the Republican party, but his record is fairly conservative, and there are the gay rumors, which recently got mainstream media attention. The Florida cabinet members are all Republican, so Democrats will have to look elsewhere in the congressional delegation, state legislature and mayoralities.

In Illinois, I would imagine Lisa Madigan would be a likely contender, just because Attorney Generals have good odds of being elected Governor. On the Republican side, Bill Brady has name recognition from his 2010 run. I think he would start out as the party's frontrunner.

In Nebraska, Lieutenant Governor Rick Sheehy seems to be the likely Republican contender.

In Arkansas, Attorney General Dustin McDaniel seems to be the best candidate the Democrats to follow in the footsteps of Bill Clinton and Mike Bebee. Any Democrat reelected to statewide office in 2010 in such a red state deserves respect. Although Bill Halter did pretty well in the primary against Blanche Lincoln. Lieutenant Governor Mark Darr seems to be the most prominent Republican.

If Scott Brown loses the Senate race, he'll be a strong candidate for Governor of Massachusetts. Otherwise, Charles Murray may be given another opportunity for the Republican nomination. The Democratic primary would be interesting considering the sheer number of potential nominees, none of whom has tremendous starpower. I don't see the nomination going to Warren.

If Nathan Deal doesn't want to run for reelection, I think the Republican party's nomination will go to Karen Handel. As far as conservative primary voters are concerned, she came out ahead during the Komen mess.

Nikki Haley's approval ratings are low, and she was elected Governor in a fairly close race in a very Republican state in a very Republican year. So she could be vulnerable to a rematch with Vincent Shaheen, especially in circumstances unfavorable to Republicans, such as President Romney presiding over a bad economy.
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« Reply #24 on: June 24, 2012, 01:09:25 pm »
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Texas: Maybe try Bill White or Chet Edwards?

You've basically just named the entire Democratic bench, which sums up the mess the Texas Democrats have become.

They can only win a statewide office here if their candidate: (1) has plenty of money and the ability to raise plenty more; (2) hasn't served in Congress and thus can't be tied to Obama, the national Democratic Party or Washington in general; (3) has the respect of the business community, rather than just trial lawyers and black and Hispanic interest groups.

Bill White met all three of these criteria and he still lost. Chet Edwards meets none of these criteria.
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