France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism

[Zanas]

That's it, the government just lowered the price of one liter of gas by 0,06 €. Huge priority for a left-wing government to spend its money on... -___-'

Oh and Montebourg said that nuclear power was a "sector with a future" (un secteur d'avenir), the Greens are pretty pissed but they either resign or shut up. So they shut up. Glad we the FdG didn't negotiate ministers beforehand like those did...

[Zanas]

Montebourg is neither right nor wrong : it is a question of political will. He could just have consulted his junior green government partner before expressing such an affirmation. That is to say, if any socialist had any consideration whatsoever for their coalition partners... :-P

[Zanas]

I find it unfair that any government should take anyone's money at all. Who are they to do that anyway ?

[Zanas]

Well that campaign just made the "socialist" government back up... Sadness.

[Zanas]

Well, the government backed off on their will to increase the tax business holders have to pay when they sell their shares in their companies and make money with that.

We don't have a left-wing government, I really can't see it.

[Zanas]

Driving people in the hands of MLP because of this? lol, no. That's not at all the scheme into which MLP could earn voters, it's more likely bad for her, because this measure is seen like a rather balanced and constructive one by most of the classical political class (MEDEF approved of it!), and actually it's part of stuffs that participates to make social relationships more peaceful. It's actually a balanced one, and not something betraying the Socialistes ideas, those who don't like it had to support stuffs like 'Mélenchon'.

Actually, I would beg to differ. This is typically the type of political betrayal that will make Hollande's electors think : "well we elected him to fire Sarko, and basically he's doing more of the same on everything that matters economically". So it's typically the kind of things that feed the whole "UMPS tous pareils, tous pourris" FN rhetorics... And, frankly, how can you prove them wrong ?... Gay marriage ? People actually do not care that much about that, but they care about giving the company that fired their brother or their son several fukcing millions of € when they have nil, or even have more to pay on their own in tax.

You seem to be proud that Medef approved of that, and that most of the classical political class as well. Well here's the thing : "most of the classical political class" is right-wing, and most is disconnected from the public. Soooo yeah, they approve of it. How about the people ?

But since you speak "stuffs like 'Mélenchon'" as if you took a tissue to throw a stale fruit in the bin, I guess you won't be hearing what I say here...

[Zanas]

By the way, it seems to me that the political level is not here to create change in a society, it's here to deal with an already existing reality, so, we deal with what our country is

To paraphrase you : those words can only be the words of someone who voted for a shallow blob.

You say the political level is not here to create change in a society, but only to deal with an already existing reality : well you're wrong. That is the job of the administrative level. If you have political programs and a choice, it is in fact because they're supposed to change things, even if I'll grant it to you that they don't nowadays. Well when they're right-wing they do, they change things to benefit their friends...

[Zanas]

Politics can and do change things. Look at history, there are plenty of examples of this.

If I thought for a single instant that the politicians' only job was to "deal with an already existing reality", I wouldn't bother voting.

Which is what a growing number of our contemporaneous do, actually, because of people like Benwah...

What a pity. Benwah, do you really think that there is absolutely no political influence on how and where a society changes ? In that case, I really don't get why you would prefer any political side to another...

[Zanas]

It's obvious not all depuites were there, so it's just they lacked a few of their own. I'm a bit appalled by the PCF one voting against, though unfortunately not completely surprised...

And it's also a bit scary, but also not very surprising, to see most overseas left-wing deputies voting against.

[Zanas]

Well, even if they have been recycling their front-benchers a bit with new more modern specimens, there are still a good bulk of the PCF that is composed of 60+ people with sometimes not so progressive views on societal issues... One of their deputies, André Gerin, even ended up being quite the racist, before getting expelled from the parliament group and not reelected in 2012.

[Zanas]

Weeeell, he was borderline.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Zanas]

You realize there is indeed racism behind this but he still managed to varnish it with a populist-like rhetoric. A number of old communists in the PCF are indeed racists. They were for French Algeria, they were for sending troops to beat up New Caledonia, and so on. I'm just glad they succeed in getting younger more modern ones up front now : Laurent, Dartigolles, Brossat, etc. who are a lot more societally frequentable.

[Zanas]

Yeah, French media are all out on this. Actually, it's been numerous years since most of the Party's federations were not using the hammer and sickle on any of their activist material.  And Emmanuel Dang Tran is only secretary of one of Paris' 20 sections, one of the most reactionary ones.

But I find it a pity. The hammer and sickle is an international recognition symbol, plus a historical landmark. Oh well, no big deal.

[Zanas]

Hash : do it. If you want somewhere to start, I'll ask you : Metz, Nancy, Valenciennes, Paris Ve, Marseille, Strasbourg, Bordeaux, Le Havre, Nîmes, Sète.

[Zanas]

Watching this government is a bit like watching a trainwreck, except a very very very predictable one. And they even manage to get better and better at wrecking the train while it's wrecking.

With the UMP's leadership issues, broad avenue to Marine Le Pen...

[Zanas]

According to the article he had the account for 20 years. Yet somehow background checks either didn't catch it or swept it under the rug.

What background checks ? You either are the President's buddy and you enter the Government, or are not and stay out. Simple as that.

Oh and it goes on :

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And I can tell you when they speak about extremist parties, they're not speaking about the Left Front.

Hollande should resign now and give the Presidency to Marine Le Pen altogether. That way she could at least make some bullsh**t before 2017 and get beaten... (not saying this seriously, just, you know, out of profound and utter lassitude and resignation...)

[Zanas]

There are basically none of these in between electoral campaigns (which, granted, are almost every year, but the non-Presidential ones last only 2 to 3 months). Especially, there is no "general election tracker" that would generically poll a supposed Presidential election all the way during the 5-year term. That's something that we election maniacs would appreciate, but frankly that would be weird to have here...

And when they do poll, they poll like sh**t. For example, they polled nationally around three weeks ago for a municipal election next year of all things...

This gave the following :
Far-left 2 %    
Left Front 9 %    
Greens 6 %    
PS 27 %    
Modem 4 %    
UMP 38 %    
FN 12 %    
Others 2 %

Remember people are supposed to say for which mayoral candidate they would vote. Obviously FN, having close to no incumbent, loses a lot in a poll like this. But differences would be huge, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win a record number of municipalities next year, in Pas-de-Calais, Moselle, Vaucluse or Gard.

[Zanas]

Do someone want me to translate this or you're fine with Google ?

[Zanas]

Please translate.

I'll do just that, but tomorrow.

Most of the people I speak with regarding the Cahuzac affair are really resigned about it. I get much "tous pourris" feeling (all rotten), but not something that can be mustered by either the FN or FG. It's more like "they're all the same, but they have really always been, and we've known, and we've done nothing to prevent it in the past, and will continue so."

Quite depressing actually.

[Zanas]

Errr, not so quick Tony. French people tend to vote quite locally in the municipal election on the contrary. And it's not even sure that regional and departmental levels will have a vote in 2014 at this point. Actually, the municipal election of 2014 could well be the best thing that could happen to the PS : they will lose a few middle-sized cities based on national swing, but they're quite strong in the cities so they really won't lose that much. Of course they will lose loads of small cities (like 50,000 inhabs and lower), but that won't matter in the least, because that's not what media coverage will be about.

Media coverage will be, as it always is with municipal elections, and because, frankly, the French media and commentators don't know sh**t about elections (they really really really suck monumentally at these), about who wins in the 5 or 10 largest cities, very few of which are swing ones.

Among the 10 largest cities, the right cannot hope for Paris and Lyon, whereas the PS can realistically hope for Marseille. The right has a bit of hope about Toulouse (unlikely) and Strasbourg (a bit more likely), but this will be eclipsed by the loss of Marseille. The left in return could hope for Bordeaux, but only if Juppé stays out, but he seems like he wants to run so he should keep it.

After that, in the 20 largest cities, there are really not so much targets for the right, maybe Reims or Saint-Étienne, or Metz a bit further, but that's all.

So basically, the 2014 election will be about who wins Marseille : the PS and it's like "the left pulls this out in a difficult context", or the right and it's "sanction vote against an impopular government".

That's simplified though.

[Zanas]

Some nutjob UMP Paris municipal councillor proposes the creation of a "rue Margaret Thatcher" (street)... In Paris... Seriously.

Oh and about Bordeaux, a poll has just been released :
Juppé would win 54-55% in the first round, being automatically elected, whether the left is united (38%), or dispersed (PS 26%, EELV 8%, FG 6%).

So Bordeaux stays to the right.

[Zanas]

Well, he's from the Lot, so I assume his seat is safe, right?

Oh sh*t, it's Lot-et-Garronne.... So right-wing pickup likely.

Yeah I don't know. Granted, Lot-et-Garonne has been consistently quite swingy the last decades, but the PS in the 3rd constituency's runoffs has gone from 48% in 2002 (which was not so bad in that context), to 52% in 2007, to a large 61% in 2012. It polled 47% in the first round last year. So it seems to have conquered quite a voting base, and I'm not sure it will shrink enough to not win this one.

Plus, in 2012 UMP was at 27% and FN at 16%. In Lot-et-Garonne and with Copé-Fillon sh**t, you can expect this gap to shrink...

In the event that FN tops UMP, PS wins it, but not so easily. I'd say a 54-46.

In the event we have a classic PS-UMP runoff, say with PS polling 32%, EELV 3% (2 in 2012) and FG 8% (4.5% in 2012), I can see a UMP victory, but not so sure. Still, FN voters in Lot-et-Garonne are more likely to transfer to UMP in the secound round than say, in Moselle or Nord, so I guess UMP wins it 52-48.

But we cannot rule out the possibility that there has been sociological changes around Villeneuve-sur-Lot in the past 10 years that make the constituency lean clearly left nowadays, and so the PS could as well retain a good 36-40 in the first round, with a few reserves for the runoff, and end keeping it 53-47.

Haaash ? You hadn't covered Lot-et-Garonne last year, so I had to completely improvise that one. Am I right ?

I used this btw : http://www.atlaspol.com/AQ/lot-et-garonne.htm
Quite useful sometimes.

[Zanas]

Seems like a NKM-winning-the-nomination bump and it should go back a little.

Is "de Saint-Just" the FN list-head ? Who is it ?

[Zanas]

Ah yes with the peculiar first name I remember hearing about him.

[Zanas]

Ah yes with the peculiar first name I remember hearing about him.

Interesting last name, too. Is he any relation at all?

I wasn't able to find out, but it would be quite the disgrace.