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Author Topic: 2016: The Changing Faces of the Presidency  (Read 2463 times)
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jro660
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« on: June 23, 2012, 11:49:02 am »
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In the spring of 2015, the New York Times Magazine runs an issue dedicated solely to discussing the 2016 candidates for president who have already announced intentions to run. President Obama, re-elected after a close win in 2012, stands at about 50% approval, 47% disapproval.

The Democrats

Former Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton, thought to be an early frontrunner, has consistently said that she will not be a contender in 2016. Clinton has held no fundraisers nor any campaign events, and, at this point, if she were to enter the race, it would be surprising to many in the political world, as the 2016 Democratic candidates have already raised millions of dollars and begun campaigning in crucial states like Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

Vice President Joe Biden launched his exploratory committee for the presidency just last week, but he has already begun a vigorous campaign in Iowa, New Hampshire, and in his home state of Delaware, which will hold its primary in late January. Biden has already raised a large sum of money, but according to polls, Democrats are only mildly enthusiastic about Biden's candidacy.

President Barack Obama calls Biden a "tremendously important" vice president, but indicates that he will not get involved in the primary contest. Despite Biden's larger-than-life fundraising operation, he has racked up few endorsements outside of his home state of Delaware.

New York City Mayor Christine Quinn has generated a lot of buzz with the announcement last month that she has formed an exploratory committee looking to the highest office of the land. Recently, TIME Magazine published an article "From City Hall to the White House?" profiling Quinn's significant achievements since being elected New York's first openly gay and female mayor in 2013. Quinn, like her rival Vice President Biden, is a leading contender in fundraising, and has also racked up important endorsements such as most of Greater NYC's congressional delegation, and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who, according to reports begrudgingly decided to drop a bid for the presidency. LGBT elected officials such as Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO) have endorsed Quinn in an attempt to solidify support within the LGBT community.

Virginia's Senior Senator Mark Warner is running for president with much of President Obama's former campaign infrastructure. Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod are both work with Warner on his campaign, and, according to recent polling, Warner is a top-tier contender, appearing near or at the top of Democratic preference polls. Many Democrats consider him a solid choice in the primaries. Additionally, Senator Warner polls among the best against Republican candidates for the presidency. So far, Warner's efforts have focused mainly on younger and middle-class voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, and the African American community in South Carolina, in which Warner is aiming to make strong inroads.

Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley has been in the race the longest out of any of the candidates, slowly building up coalitions in early voting states. O'Malley's campaign wants Democrats to know that O'Malley is a solid progressive, pushing for the DREAM Act and marriage equality during his tenure, yet someone who can build bridges with Republicans in the Congress. O'Malley has hired several firms to reach out to the Latino population in Nevada, a caucus state where O'Malley has already opened several campaign offices.

Will he or won't he? New York Governor Andrew Cuomo was reelected with 68% of the vote in 2014, and remains strongly popular in the Empire State. But sources close to Cuomo say he won't pull the trigger on a run unless a clear path is paved for him to win the nomination.

Black, Latino or Asian? Prominent Black, Latino, and Asian Democrats are urging credible candidates of color to consider a run for the presidency. Some prospects include Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez of California or former Interior Secretary Ken Salazar.

Stay tuned for part 2, the Republican candidates...
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President William McKinley
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« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2012, 12:22:09 pm »
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Cuomo is sounding like his father... nice writing!
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2012, 12:28:11 pm »
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Interesting selection.

I like the idea of Quinn entering when Gilibrand, Cuomo and Clinton all opt out.

And I also appreciate the speculation about additional candidates circa Spring 2015.
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GLPman
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« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2012, 12:41:34 pm »
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If these are all the Democratic candidates, then I'll be rooting for Cuomo.
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« Reply #4 on: July 04, 2012, 06:03:56 pm »
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Is anyone gonna continue this? It looked pretty good.
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ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #5 on: July 04, 2012, 09:51:42 pm »
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This is great!
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America's like that hot chick everyone wants, and illegal immigrants are all the nerds that she should say "no" to.
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« Reply #6 on: July 04, 2012, 10:28:34 pm »
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This is great!
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

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FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)
Senator Alfred F. Jones
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2012, 11:02:54 am »
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Alfred is the only acceptable option

Clinton they've discovered our lovechild Sad

Libreedom
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« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2012, 12:30:05 pm »
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Hey, progressive, update this, please!!
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #9 on: July 08, 2012, 12:19:23 am »
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The Republicans

For many Republicans, 2016 is the year where the GOP gets to have its fair shot at making history with its presidential preference. By all measures, this year's field is among the most crowded in history, and surely its most diverse.

Former Virginia Governor and 2012 GOP Vice Presidential nominee Bob McDonnell is a natural frontrunner for his party's nomination in 2016. He secured the endorsement of Mitt Romney and has hired many former Romney operatives, allowing McDonnell to surpass many of his opponents in fundraising. McDonnell, who says that he will compete in each of the January primary contests, has had few gaffes on the trail and is believed by Republican operatives to be a top-choice candidate for the post.

Chris Christie, in his second term as New Jersey's governor is giving Bob McDonnell a run for his money for the Republican nomination. Christie has focused his campaign efforts on New Hampshire, where he hopes to stave off the "candidate backed by corn" in Iowa. With a lot of support, comes a lot of enemies as well, and Christie has made some in the Republican Party's religious wing. Before his closer-than-expected re-election in 2013 over former Governor and State Senator Richard Codey, same sex marriage was passed in New Jersey. Fearing retribution from liberals and moderates in an off-year election cycle, Christie largely ignored the issue, refusing to attend fundraisers and other events promoting the illegalization of marriage equality. Despite this setback, Christie has raised the most out of any contender, leads national polls, but struggles in early state polls.

New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez squeaked out a re-election victory in 2014 and has been on the campaign trail for president ever since. Despite lower name recognition than McDonnell or Christie, Martinez has been the most active candidate, hoping to pull a "Santorum" in states like Iowa because of her staunchly conservative position on social issues. Martinez has been a leading figure in the attempts to overturn same-sex marriage and civil unions in western states. In 2014, the National Organization of Marriage named Martinez "Governor of the Year."

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan tossed his hat into the presidential ring shortly after his opponent Susana Martinez. But Ryan's controversial budgets and campaign finance scandals have served his campaign major setbacks. Recently, Republican insiders in Washington were surveyed, and agreed that Ryan was the most likely to drop out of the race before the first contest.

  Kentucky Senator Rand Paul generates much money and buzz, but little substantive support in terms of endorsements or recent polls given to likely Republican primary voters. Many expect that Paul will fare just slightly better than his father, Ron Paul

Eric Cantor did not run and threw his support to Governor McDonnell. Senator Marco Rubio had planned to run, but serious campaign finance allegations and other issues stopped the bid. Senators John Thune, Kelly Ayotte and Governors Bobby Jindal, Jan Brewer, Nikki Haley and Rick Scott declared a lack of interest in running for the position.

Stay tuned for results from the 2015 Iowa Straw Poll and a newer look at our Democratic candidates!
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« Reply #10 on: July 08, 2012, 10:30:12 am »
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Author's Note: If you would like a detailed piece on any side election I mentioned (i.e., Chris Christie's close 2013 re-election), let me know and I will post the details of that election too.
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« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2012, 06:46:34 pm »
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AMES STRAW POLL RESULTS

Saturday, August 15, 2015: Just months before the first test in the 2016 Republican nomination, the candidates were in a frenzy to get supporters to the widely watched (but relatively meaningless) Ames Straw Poll. Only Chris Christie, who has stated that he will merely have a "shell campaign" in Iowa will not be in Ames today.

Results:
Bob McDonnell:        34%
Rand Paul:               30%
Susana Martinez:     18%
Chris Christie:          9%
Paul Ryan:               9%
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2012, 06:18:48 am »
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Author's Note: If you would like a detailed piece on any side election I mentioned (i.e., Chris Christie's close 2013 re-election), let me know and I will post the details of that election too.

The 2013 gubernatorial elections would be interesting.
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Political Matrix

E: -7,74
S: -5,22
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jro660
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« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2012, 01:12:44 pm »
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Author's Note: If you would like a detailed piece on any side election I mentioned (i.e., Chris Christie's close 2013 re-election), let me know and I will post the details of that election too.

The 2013 gubernatorial elections would be interesting.

Sure.

New Jersey 2013 Gubernatorial Election
Christopher J. "Chris" Christie  (R)    49.8%*
Richard J. Codey                  (D)        48.5%

Virginia 2013 Gubernatorial Election
Kenneth "Ken" Cuccinelli (R)          51.2%
Terry McAuliffe  (D)                        48.2%
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« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2012, 01:59:54 pm »
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New York Times Primary Primer

Just the week before the January 5 Iowa Caucuses, the Democratic candidates seem to be in a frenzy getting out last minute support from all edges of the Hawkeye State. Recent polls indicate that Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Mark Warner are neck-in-neck, with Mayor Christine Quinn in a close third place, despite the fact that the New York City mayor has spent the most money out of all of the candidates in Iowa. Quinn's campaign admits it plans to pick up delegates "along the way" to bigger states like New York, California, Florida and Illinois.

Governor Martin O'Malley and California Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez seem to be competing for Iowa residency, as each of the candidates has spent the last two months practically living in the state, hoping for an Iowa Caucus upset.

O'Malley strategists believe that their best shot is in suburban and rural parts of the state, where the former Maryland governor insists he can "outwork" his top-tier rivals. Vice President Biden and Senator Warner have taken O'Malley to task in recent weeks, shoring up support in the Iowa suburbs. Just recently, Biden opened up three more offices just outside of Des Moines, while Warner's campaign has rented out barns as makeshift campaign headquarters in rural parts of the state.

Quinn, a relative stranger to national politics, is focusing her Get out the Vote operation on Des Moines, and college towns such as Iowa City and Ames. In a boost to this effort, the Federation of Iowa College Democrats narrowly voted to support Quinn's presidential effort, offering her campaign some volunteer labor.

Recently, Quinn received for flack for insisting that her child in suburban Long Island was "similar to most parts of Iowa--you know, not big cities, lots of small towns, diners, places like that."

Then of course, there is Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, who represents Anaheim in the House of Representatives. Her quixotic bid is low on funds, but high on energy, she insists. Recent polls place Sanchez in the low single digits in virtually every state, including ones with high Latino populations--bad news for the daughter of Mexican immigrant parents.

Next Tuesday, expect the unexpected, states Des Moines Register politics reporter. "The stakes are the highest for [Vice President] Biden, who will have to justify his candidacy, if, as the sitting Vice President, he can't win in Iowa."

If your views lean more to the right, the Republican contest offers just as much excitement. Bob McDonnell, the popular former governor of Virginia remains the favorite in this contest. Recent polls give him anything from a 3 to 11 point edge over his next closest rival, depending on the poll, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, and even Susana Martinez in one survey.

Recently, however, Christie's campaign funneled in $2 million for an ad campaign. Christie, afraid of finishing last or just ahead of Paul Ryan, needs a relatively strong finish argues a senior aide for Bob McDonnell. "The governor knows he can win states like Rhode Island or Vermont or his home state. But can he win the heart of the Republican Party, you know, middle America?" This is a question that has plagued the New Jersey governor, much as it did the party's previous nominee, Mitt Romney.

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky has worked the state in his own right, scoring the endorsements of local Republican leaders, town committees, and libertarian-leaning community activists. Experts say a Paul win is not too farfetched, though it might make the Iowa Caucuses look more and more obsolete.

One candidate, Susana Martinez, whose stock has risen as of late, scored the important backing of Congressman Steve King, and former Senator and Iowa Caucus victor Rick Santorum. Martinez has spent little money in the state, far less than most of her rivals.

Congressman Paul Ryan has focused his Iowa effort on northeastern portions of the state, bordering his hometown of Wisconsin. Ryan admits a win in Iowa is "unlucky," but he is hoping to score some bragging rights in key counties, so he can refocus his campaign on other states.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's the fun part!!!

I'm curious to see your predictions for both contests!!! Make them!!! results come out either tonight or tomorrow!
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« Reply #15 on: July 11, 2012, 02:31:41 pm »
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Republicans
1. Bob McDonnell
2. Rand Paul
3. Susanna Martinez
4. Paul Ryan
5. Chris Christie

Democrats
1. Mark Warner
2. Joe Biden
3. Christine Quinn
4. Martin O'Malley
5. Loretta Sanchez
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America's like that hot chick everyone wants, and illegal immigrants are all the nerds that she should say "no" to.
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« Reply #16 on: July 11, 2012, 06:12:18 pm »
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I'm hoping O'Malley pulls a Santorum or Obama in Iowa and surges for the win. Then he and Warner battl it out til the end.
Democrats
1.Martin O'Malley
2.Mark Warner
3.Joe Biden
4.Loretta Sanchez
5.Christine Quinn

Republicans
1.Bob McDonnell
2.Rand Paul
3.Paul Ryan
4.Chris Christie
5.Susana Marrinez
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« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2012, 10:38:16 am »
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IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS

The Democrats
Joe Biden               34%
Mark Warner          32%
Christine Quinn      20%
Martin O'Malley      12%
Loretta Sanchez     2%

The Republicans
Bob McDonnell       28%
Susana Martinez    28%
Rand Paul              25%
Chris Christie         12%
Paul Ryan              7%

Fallout from the results coming soon....
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« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2012, 07:26:35 pm »
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THE NEW YORK TIMES: CAUCUS DAY RESULTS

Biden Pulls of Democratic Victory; O'Malley and Sanchez Drop Out

Vice President Joe Biden squeaked his way past Senator Mark Warner in yesterday's Iowa Caucus. New York City Mayor Chris Quinn, who came a distant third, spent her day in New Hampshire where she is in a battle for first place with Biden and Warner.

Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley dropped out of the race citing his fourth place performance in Iowa. O'Malley, who touted his progressive reforms as governor during his race, says that he will back the candidate with the "strongest progressive values who can also unite our party" sometime before the Maryland primary should it become competitive.

Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez dropped her quixotic bid and reserved her endorsement until "Latino leaders can come together and announce our support for who stands best on Latino [issues]."

Martinez Surges into Tie With McDonnell; Christie Distant Fourth

New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez shocked the political world by coming just a few hundred votes shy of topping former Virginia governor and frontrunner Bob McDonnell. The Iowa Republican Party says that Martinez earned delegates at the convention, and came just about 286 votes away from first place.

Senator Rand Paul earned a disappointing 20%, but will return to New Hampshire to campaign for the Granite State's first in the nation primary.

Meanwhile, NJ Governor Chris Christie is under tremendous fire for his lackluster performance in Iowa. Despite this, he is leading polls in New Hampshire.

Congressman Paul Ryan has dropped out.

A big question remains: Is Susana Martinez building momentum, or was this a freak result?
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« Reply #19 on: July 22, 2012, 11:48:11 pm »
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New Hampshire Primary Results and State of the Race

Republicans:
Chris Christie    39%
Bob McDonnell     23%
Susana Martinez  17%
Rand Paul            17%
Others--rem %

Democrats:
Mark Warner    40%
Joe Biden          36%
Christine Quinn   22%

NEW YORK TIMES DEBRIEF

Christie Routs Opponents in New Hampshire; Calls on Opponents to Drop Out

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie called on his opponents to drop out of the Republican primary race after his double-digit victory in New Hampshire last night. "New Hampshire picks presidential candidates, in our party's history---New Hampshire winners win the contest. If we want to take on the Democrats, and stop Obama's third time, we need to do this united--so I'm asking Republicans to join me. We don't need second-tier candidates this year."

Meanwhile, Governor Bob McDonnell, joined with Mitt Romney, decried Christie's arrogance and said that candidates "earn their spot over a series of contests, not just the flavor of the weak." A major battle seemed to be brewing between the McDonnell and Christie camps.

With Nevada and South Carolina next, Christie was worried about losing his New Hampshire momentum. Nevada polls gave Susana Martinez an edge but it was shrinking to Christie and McDonnell. And in South Carolina McDonnell led the pack...stay tuned for the Democratic result breakdown!
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #20 on: July 23, 2012, 12:38:34 am »
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Dammit rand!
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

Skyrim now, Skyrim tomorrow, Morrowind Forever!

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)
Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #21 on: July 30, 2013, 12:06:19 pm »
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Anyone want me to continue this or should I just leave it be?
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #22 on: July 30, 2013, 03:00:44 pm »
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Please continue! I find the Biden/Warner dynamic very interesting.
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Governor Spiral
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« Reply #23 on: July 30, 2013, 05:32:16 pm »
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It's honestly quite good so far. Keep going.
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