Which state will be first to go Democrat on a national level?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Discuss.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Georgia, though I wouldn't be surprised if both switched over in the same election.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Georgia, though I wouldn't be surprised if both switched over in the same election.

Maybe in the future, with just the right candidate, the Democrats could sweep the coasts and borders.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Georgia because of all the blacks.

[morgieb]

Georgia = blacks are more Democratic than Hispanics and their white populations vote at a similar rate.

[Frodo]

A more interesting question would have been whether Arizona or Georgia would go Democratic first. 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

A more interesting question would have been whether Arizona or Georgia would go Democratic first. 

Arizona.

[old timey villain]

I can see an election a few cycles from now where a lot of Midwestern states like Michigan, Wisconsin and maybe Minnesota finally flip while GA, TX, NC and VA all finally vote Dem. That would be wild and I think it will definitely happen in the next 10 years.

I'd say Georgia flips first because it has a large Democratic base to build upon, being African Americans of course. They vote in higher numbers than Hispanics in Texas and are much more Democratic. White support in both states is about even, although Obama did a few points better with whites in Texas than he did in Georgia. Texas is not far behind GA though because it's growing faster.

[BaldEagle1991]

Georgia, because of the blacks and Northern Whites moving into Atlanta.

But Texas isn't too far behind, with Hispanics and Northern Whites moving into Austin and Houston.

Although one thing to note is that GA is surprisingly less religious, church going, and less wealthy than Texas overall, that right there are other non-racial factors.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, as mentioned, has a much larger African-American population than Texas and makes our minority voting bloc much stronger; I believe as of 2010 Georgia now has more African-Americans than any other state in nominal terms. Our African-American population is also growing at a pretty brisk rate - Black Mecca.

We also have a Latino community comprising around 8% of the population. I saw some Census projections on here a couple of months ago and the trend from 1990-2010 and based on that, Georgia could become a majority-minority state as early as 2020, although closer to 2025 is more likely.

If Latinos continue to be galvanized to the Democratic Party, then it's possible that Texas could flip sooner, but I still think Georgia - with a white Democrat running for President - could flip in 2016.

[BaldEagle1991]

When do you think Texas could possibly flip? Shortly after Georgia does?

[old timey villain]

When do you think Texas could possibly flip? Shortly after Georgia does?

Well, there's really no way to determine exactly when a state "flips." You can really only go by Presidential elections every four years. And trends can get in the way. You could say that California flipped in 1988, even though it didn't vote D until 1992.

And I don't think Texas or Georgia will ever completely flip. Neither one will ever be blue states, as the strains of social and economic conservatism are just too strong to be completely overpowered. But  I do think both will become swing states. Georgia could become a majority/minority state by 2020, and when that happens we will have definitely flipped.

 Texas is already majority/minority, but a flip will depend on higher Hispanic turnout and keeping them in the D column. Stronger growth in liberal cities like Austin could also speed up the process. It might also help Democrats if the economy continues to diversity and is no longer dominated by the conservative oil and gas industry.

But you have to remember, Texas is a state that Clinton never flipped, was won by Bush with well over 60% in 2000 and 2004, and Obama lost by about 10 points. It will take a while for demographic trends to overcome that legacy, so probably more than 10-15 years. But it can happen, I mean look at California.

[BaldEagle1991]

When do you think Texas could possibly flip? Shortly after Georgia does?

Well, there's really no way to determine exactly when a state "flips." You can really only go by Presidential elections every four years. And trends can get in the way. You could say that California flipped in 1988, even though it didn't vote D until 1992.

And I don't think Texas or Georgia will ever completely flip. Neither one will ever be blue states, as the strains of social and economic conservatism are just too strong to be completely overpowered. But  I do think both will become swing states. Georgia could become a majority/minority state by 2020, and when that happens we will have definitely flipped.

 Texas is already majority/minority, but a flip will depend on higher Hispanic turnout and keeping them in the D column. Stronger growth in liberal cities like Austin could also speed up the process. It might also help Democrats if the economy continues to diversity and is no longer dominated by the conservative oil and gas industry.

But you have to remember, Texas is a state that Clinton never flipped, was won by Bush with well over 60% in 2000 and 2004, and Obama lost by about 10 points. It will take a while for demographic trends to overcome that legacy, so probably more than 10-15 years. But it can happen, I mean look at California.

I can see. I have to agree with you that the states can't be blue states like MA or CA, but potential future swing states like OH or FL.

Although coming from TX, I know the economy is continuing to diversify, but many of the economic sectors that is being diversified here are also conservative leaning, such as weapon/gun making, religious publishing, and military. I know the film and tech industries are coming here too, but in small amounts and it's mostly in either Dallas or Austin.

The only hope I think for many of these states is their minority populations, and growing Northern/Left Coast white populations as well. It's going to be much harder for TX though as Hispanics tend to have a lower turnout rate, but it could happen.

[old timey villain]

Demographic changes play a big role in how a state's political culture changes. You could say that this alone turned Florida into a swing state. But Florida has experienced a decades long flood of inmigration that is unheard of almost anywhere else. A change in dominant industries is what often heralds political changes and that's probably what will have to happen in GA and TX.

NoVa turned VA into a swing state, but a lot of that has to do with the explosion of federal jobs that were relocated to the region.

North Carolina has experienced tremendous growth in scientific and research industries, specifically in the Research Triangle, and this infusion of highly educated tech workers turned NC into a swing state.

California lost a huge chunk of its defense jobs when the Cold War ended. Many of these Republican leaning workers left the state, helping it to turn blue.

The issue with Georgia and Texas is that both are still dominated by conservative industries, and changing economic trends are where the two states diverge.

Georgia spent decades building up its finance and real estate industries. Our state enacted loose banking laws, creating an explosion of small town banks popping up. At the same time, these banks loaned out easy money to real estate developers which created the bubble in construction and real estate industries. It wasn't too long ago that a new shopping center or subdivision was popping up every day. However, since the recession these industries have collapsed and now Georgia is trying to lure other industries, like IT and research.

The energy sectors in Texas were about the only industries in the country that actually did better in the recession. So even as Texas diversifies its economy, those sectors are still growing and powerful, which could prolong the state's GOP tilt. Now in Georgia's case, if Construction and banking never recover, they will be replaced by other sectors that are more liberal, which would flip the state like NC in 2008.

[BaldEagle1991]

The energy sectors in Texas were about the only industries in the country that actually did better in the recession. So even as Texas diversifies its economy, those sectors are still growing and powerful, which could prolong the state's GOP tilt. Now in Georgia's case, if Construction and banking never recover, they will be replaced by other sectors that are more liberal, which would flip the state like NC in 2008.

I'm expecting an oil industry collapse sometime soon, then you will see a large economic diversification that would even include the liberal leaning industries.

[tpfkaw]

Georgia first went Democrat on the national level in 1828 (or 1792, if you count the Democratic-Republicans), while Texas first did in 1848, the first election post-statehood.  Only counting from 1848, Georgia did not vote Democrat until 1852, but since you did not specify that as a condition, I'll say Georgia.

/pedant

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

When do you think Texas could possibly flip? Shortly after Georgia does?

Well, there's really no way to determine exactly when a state "flips." You can really only go by Presidential elections every four years. And trends can get in the way. You could say that California flipped in 1988, even though it didn't vote D until 1992.

And I don't think Texas or Georgia will ever completely flip. Neither one will ever be blue states, as the strains of social and economic conservatism are just too strong to be completely overpowered. But  I do think both will become swing states. Georgia could become a majority/minority state by 2020, and when that happens we will have definitely flipped.

 Texas is already majority/minority, but a flip will depend on higher Hispanic turnout and keeping them in the D column. Stronger growth in liberal cities like Austin could also speed up the process. It might also help Democrats if the economy continues to diversity and is no longer dominated by the conservative oil and gas industry.

But you have to remember, Texas is a state that Clinton never flipped, was won by Bush with well over 60% in 2000 and 2004, and Obama lost by about 10 points. It will take a while for demographic trends to overcome that legacy, so probably more than 10-15 years. But it can happen, I mean look at California.

Well, the fact that 6 of the last 8 elections included a Texan on the Republican ticket probably helpped steer it into the blue states.

[old timey villain]

I guess that makes sense. The same could be said for California staying red for as long as it did.

But Texas isn't California. 2008 might have shown a reversion to normal long term trends in Texas, meaning that the Democratic floor is higher than it used to be, around 43-44 as opposed to the high 30s during the Bush era. And if that's the case, then Texas will still take time to flip, if it does at all.

I guess it should be noted that the Republican party won't give up their two most electorally rich reliable states without a fight (In 2008, Georgia and Texas were the biggest prizes for McCain). Losing those states from their column would certainly make them a minority party at the presidential level. If the GOP doesn't evolve to bring hispanics and other minorities into the fold, you will almost certainly see these two states become tossup. I think it will take a while for these minority groups to truly warm to the party, but it will probably happen eventually, for the sake of the party's survival.

Still, if Texas and Georgia continue to attract people of all races, ethnicities, religions and ideologies, they will continue to become more of a microcosm of the country as a whole, which will make them swing states regardless.

[AmericanNation]

With regard to that, I see a trend of older black males and (non hispanic) Catholics becoming strongly republican (in the midwest anyway).  The second trend may well pull a significant amount of Hispanics along eventually.  Republicans only need to win 15-20% of the Black vote and 35-40% of the Hispanic vote to be a strong majority party for the next 25 years or more. 
I can't see the dependency death grip the democrats have on some groups lasting forever though (they will run out of other people's money), so a big shake up is a strong possibility.                       

[old timey villain]

With regard to that, I see a trend of older black males and (non hispanic) Catholics becoming strongly republican (in the midwest anyway).  The second trend may well pull a significant amount of Hispanics along eventually.  Republicans only need to win 15-20% of the Black vote and 35-40% of the Hispanic vote to be a strong majority party for the next 25 years or more. 
I can't see the dependency death grip the democrats have on some groups lasting forever though (they will run out of other people's money), so a big shake up is a strong possibility.                       

Regarding your trends, I certainly don't see them at all right now. I mean, maybe in the future since anything is possible, but certainly not now, especially your prediction about older black males.  Older black males remember the Civil Rights movement very well, and it's still a very emotive experience for them since they lived through it. They see men like John Lewis, Andrew Young, and Jesse Jackson as heroes, and they're all Democrats.

Most black people I speak to about politics feel like the GOP hasn't done a damn thing for them in the past 50 years, and in fact, often tries to wind back the clock on civil rights and equality issues. You can certainly debate the validity of this argument, but I suspect this is why African Americans are consistently 90% Democrat or more in presidential elections.

How Hispanics trend in the future will be entirely dependent upon their income, social status, occupation and religious beliefs. They will eventually fan out among both parties, but that will take a while.

And while I'm on the topic, I really take issue with your 'dependency death grip' comment. A while back I was flamed for being kind of mean spirited towards blue collar Dems in WV regarding why so many hate Obama. I was angry in seeing them vote against their economic interests, and in the process I became condescending, which is probably the exact reason why the Democratic party is losing their support so rapidly.

If Republicans want to ever have a chance with minorities, the same condescending attitude needs to stop as well. Sure, blacks can be socially conservative, but they will never see themselves as compatible with the GOP if the party continues to insult them and claim that they only vote Democrat just so they can keep sucking on the government teat. That claim would (understandably) piss anybody off.

[AmericanNation]

With regard to that, I see a trend of older black males and (non hispanic) Catholics becoming strongly republican (in the midwest anyway).  The second trend may well pull a significant amount of Hispanics along eventually.  Republicans only need to win 15-20% of the Black vote and 35-40% of the Hispanic vote to be a strong majority party for the next 25 years or more. 
I can't see the dependency death grip the democrats have on some groups lasting forever though (they will run out of other people's money), so a big shake up is a strong possibility.                       

Regarding your trends, I certainly don't see them at all right now. I mean, maybe in the future since anything is possible, but certainly not now, especially your prediction about older black males.  Older black males remember the Civil Rights movement very well, and it's still a very emotive experience for them since they lived through it. They see men like John Lewis, Andrew Young, and Jesse Jackson as heroes, and they're all Democrats.

Most black people I speak to about politics feel like the GOP hasn't done a damn thing for them in the past 50 years, and in fact, often tries to wind back the clock on civil rights and equality issues. You can certainly debate the validity of this argument, but I suspect this is why African Americans are consistently 90% Democrat or more in presidential elections.

How Hispanics trend in the future will be entirely dependent upon their income, social status, occupation and religious beliefs. They will eventually fan out among both parties, but that will take a while.

And while I'm on the topic, I really take issue with your 'dependency death grip' comment. A while back I was flamed for being kind of mean spirited towards blue collar Dems in WV regarding why so many hate Obama. I was angry in seeing them vote against their economic interests, and in the process I became condescending, which is probably the exact reason why the Democratic party is losing their support so rapidly.

If Republicans want to ever have a chance with minorities, the same condescending attitude needs to stop as well. Sure, blacks can be socially conservative, but they will never see themselves as compatible with the GOP if the party continues to insult them and claim that they only vote Democrat just so they can keep sucking on the government teat. That claim would (understandably) piss anybody off.

I can see your point, however I can easily turn it on it's head and my life experience and expertise would back me up in doing so... I'll leave that there. 

Yea, I would have guessed that the dynamic is different deep south vs. Midwest.  Many older black males I've talked to feel like the democrat party hasn't done a thing for them in the past 50 years, and they feel like they are taken for granted or oppressed by the ruling establishment in their community (democrats).  Republicans have pushed school choice, vouchers, economic development, tax relief, and family values. Meanwhile, democrats have...  tried to prevent those things with all their might and done nothing positive. 

Now, most other blacks(non old males) will give me a version of your line, or something about evil rich republican racists cutting all the programs they need or something like that.  I can imagine the gay marriage evolution and the immigration amnesty talk plays into my trend as well.       

[old timey villain]

With regard to that, I see a trend of older black males and (non hispanic) Catholics becoming strongly republican (in the midwest anyway).  The second trend may well pull a significant amount of Hispanics along eventually.  Republicans only need to win 15-20% of the Black vote and 35-40% of the Hispanic vote to be a strong majority party for the next 25 years or more.  
I can't see the dependency death grip the democrats have on some groups lasting forever though (they will run out of other people's money), so a big shake up is a strong possibility.                      

Regarding your trends, I certainly don't see them at all right now. I mean, maybe in the future since anything is possible, but certainly not now, especially your prediction about older black males.  Older black males remember the Civil Rights movement very well, and it's still a very emotive experience for them since they lived through it. They see men like John Lewis, Andrew Young, and Jesse Jackson as heroes, and they're all Democrats.

Most black people I speak to about politics feel like the GOP hasn't done a damn thing for them in the past 50 years, and in fact, often tries to wind back the clock on civil rights and equality issues. You can certainly debate the validity of this argument, but I suspect this is why African Americans are consistently 90% Democrat or more in presidential elections.

How Hispanics trend in the future will be entirely dependent upon their income, social status, occupation and religious beliefs. They will eventually fan out among both parties, but that will take a while.

And while I'm on the topic, I really take issue with your 'dependency death grip' comment. A while back I was flamed for being kind of mean spirited towards blue collar Dems in WV regarding why so many hate Obama. I was angry in seeing them vote against their economic interests, and in the process I became condescending, which is probably the exact reason why the Democratic party is losing their support so rapidly.

If Republicans want to ever have a chance with minorities, the same condescending attitude needs to stop as well. Sure, blacks can be socially conservative, but they will never see themselves as compatible with the GOP if the party continues to insult them and claim that they only vote Democrat just so they can keep sucking on the government teat. That claim would (understandably) piss anybody off.

I can see your point, however I can easily turn it on it's head and my life experience and expertise would back me up in doing so... I'll leave that there.  

Yea, I would have guessed that the dynamic is different deep south vs. Midwest.  Many older black males I've talked to feel like the democrat party hasn't done a thing for them in the past 50 years, and they feel like they are taken for granted or oppressed by the ruling establishment in their community (democrats).  Republicans have pushed school choice, vouchers, economic development, tax relief, and family values. Meanwhile, democrats have...  tried to prevent those things with all their might and done nothing positive.  

Now, most other blacks(non old males) will give me a version of your line, or something about evil rich republican racists cutting all the programs they need or something like that.  I can imagine the gay marriage evolution and the immigration amnesty talk plays into my trend as well.      

Well, ok, you're moving into right wind talking points mode, instead of a rational open minded discussion. All of the things you listed as GOP policies that could be good for black people are extremely subjective, and everyone has different opinions on them. And I guarantee you there is not some universal consensus that blacks overwhelmingly support those issues. If they did, then the Democratic politicians who strike them down would be kicked out of office by their black constituents.

But here's what's the most fascinating, and frustrating for Republicans: African Americans now exist in every part of the country and every rung of the social ladder. Yet they all overwhelmingly vote Democratic. This is in stark contrast to other minority groups that begin to split their votes as they further assimilate. I can only explain this as an act of black solidarity and a deep cultural legacy that goes back to the New Deal era.

[AmericanNation]

Not just a talking point, the segment that cares about their kid's education overwhelmingly supports those policies(in areas were they exist).  Go to a Voucher lottery once, you'll see 100% support for those policies.  
You have a point about frustration, but it isn't like they are going to get more democratic.  I read some interesting polls in North Carolina a few weeks ago showing 15 to 20 % of the black vote against Obama.  Now, Romney wins NC by 10 or more with those numbers, but something is going on there.  Probably a gay marriage thing, so you have religious, intact families who care about their kids education, and older males showing signs of a small realignment of 5-10%.        

[BaldEagle1991]

I guess that makes sense. The same could be said for California staying red for as long as it did.

But Texas isn't California. 2008 might have shown a reversion to normal long term trends in Texas, meaning that the Democratic floor is higher than it used to be, around 43-44 as opposed to the high 30s during the Bush era. And if that's the case, then Texas will still take time to flip, if it does at all.

I guess it should be noted that the Republican party won't give up their two most electorally rich reliable states without a fight (In 2008, Georgia and Texas were the biggest prizes for McCain). Losing those states from their column would certainly make them a minority party at the presidential level. If the GOP doesn't evolve to bring hispanics and other minorities into the fold, you will almost certainly see these two states become tossup. I think it will take a while for these minority groups to truly warm to the party, but it will probably happen eventually, for the sake of the party's survival.

Still, if Texas and Georgia continue to attract people of all races, ethnicities, religions and ideologies, they will continue to become more of a microcosm of the country as a whole, which will make them swing states regardless.

When that happens, I guarantee you'll see some of the Democratic old white men come back.

[AmericanNation]

So if they both became swing states, than theoretically the unofficial party HQ s would move from Dallas and Atlanta to where? Indianapolis? Denver?