MI-Lambert, Edwards & Associates/Denno Research: Tied race
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Author Topic: MI-Lambert, Edwards & Associates/Denno Research: Tied race  (Read 1842 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: June 25, 2012, 07:41:42 AM »

600 likely voters, conducted June 14-15:

40% Obama
40% Romney
20% Undecided

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/06/tie_race_new_poll_shows_romney.html
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2012, 08:32:52 AM »

Too many undecideds, but a trend is emerging that suggests Michigan could go either way.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2012, 12:09:23 PM »

Too many undecideds, but a trend is emerging that suggests Michigan could go either way.

Junk poll released slowly.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2012, 01:02:05 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2012, 01:08:00 PM by krazen1211 »

That's 5 polls now. Romney is marching well along the path.

That said, the liberals manage to cling to the single outlier Rasmussen poll! Without it, Romney would be leading the RCP average.


Perhaps people are having memories of the Jennifer Granholm job apocalypse.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2012, 02:00:05 PM »

This is like those polls that showed Obama tied in Tennessee with low 40s numbers, they just don't equal competitiveness in November. Let's look at some 2008 polls for Michigan.

Public Policy Polling    September 6–7    Barack Obama    47%    John McCain    46%

American Research Group    Sept 16-19    Barack Obama    48%    John McCain    46%

Marketing Resource Group
of Lansing    Sept 15-19    Barack Obama    43%    John McCain    46%

NBC/Mason-Dixon    Sept 18-23    Barack Obama    46%    John McCain    46%

Strategic Vision    September 22–24    Barack Obama    48%    John McCain    45%    
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ajc0918
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« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2012, 02:02:52 PM »

"Let Detriot go Bankrupt"
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2012, 02:04:12 PM »

What is Lambert Edwards' track record like?

And krazen, WAA and EPIC-MRA have already demonstrated that they are garbage pollsters.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2012, 02:06:55 PM »

This is like those polls that showed Obama tied in Tennessee with low 40s numbers, they just don't equal competitiveness in November. Let's look at some 2008 polls for Michigan.

Public Policy Polling    September 6–7    Barack Obama    47%    John McCain    46%

American Research Group    Sept 16-19    Barack Obama    48%    John McCain    46%

Marketing Resource Group
of Lansing    Sept 15-19    Barack Obama    43%    John McCain    46%

NBC/Mason-Dixon    Sept 18-23    Barack Obama    46%    John McCain    46%

Strategic Vision    September 22–24    Barack Obama    48%    John McCain    45%    


I get your point about outlier polls like the recent Tennessee numbers, but don't think Michigan compares. The one thing that most of the numbers you posted have in common is that they all came in early or mid September 2008, the one point of that campaign where McCain was actually leading or tied with Obama. It was after the convention and Palin pick, but before the financial melt down. So McCain likely was close to Obama in Michigan during this period. Every poll out this month has shown Michigan a close race.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2012, 02:08:58 PM »

This is like those polls that showed Obama tied in Tennessee with low 40s numbers, they just don't equal competitiveness in November. Let's look at some 2008 polls for Michigan.

Public Policy Polling    September 6–7    Barack Obama    47%    John McCain    46%

American Research Group    Sept 16-19    Barack Obama    48%    John McCain    46%

Marketing Resource Group
of Lansing    Sept 15-19    Barack Obama    43%    John McCain    46%

NBC/Mason-Dixon    Sept 18-23    Barack Obama    46%    John McCain    46%

Strategic Vision    September 22–24    Barack Obama    48%    John McCain    45%    


I get your point about outlier polls like the recent Tennessee numbers, but don't think Michigan compares. The one thing that most of the numbers you posted have in common is that they all came in early or mid September 2008, the one point of that campaign where McCain was actually leading or tied with Obama. It was after the convention and Palin pick, but before the financial melt down. So McCain likely was close to Obama in Michigan during this period. Every poll out this month has shown Michigan a close race.


Even among that timeframe, he dishonestly hardcore cherry picked a handful of polls and ignored others. The RCP average from early or mid September 2008 in the daterange provided would have shown an Obama lead of +4.



Of course, now every poll is showing a tied race. No cherry picking necessary.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2012, 02:11:57 PM »

What is Lambert Edwards' track record like?

And krazen, WAA and EPIC-MRA have already demonstrated that they are garbage pollsters.

There's no need to use those polls if you don't like them; 3 others are saying the same thing.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2012, 02:45:50 PM »

What is Lambert Edwards' track record like?

And krazen, WAA and EPIC-MRA have already demonstrated that they are garbage pollsters.

And Romney actually lost support in EPIC-MRA's polling, they actually had him up some months ago, so it doesn't really support Romney doing better in Michigan. But, I agree, neither pollster is really credible.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #11 on: June 25, 2012, 02:47:02 PM »

What is Lambert Edwards' track record like?

And krazen, WAA and EPIC-MRA have already demonstrated that they are garbage pollsters.

There's no need to use those polls if you don't like them; 3 others are saying the same thing.
Not quite.
Junk pollsters and unknown pollsters are claiming Michigan is close.
Respected and trustworthy pollsters Rasmussen and PPP say otherwise.
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ajb
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« Reply #12 on: June 25, 2012, 03:03:11 PM »

This is like those polls that showed Obama tied in Tennessee with low 40s numbers, they just don't equal competitiveness in November. Let's look at some 2008 polls for Michigan.

Public Policy Polling    September 6–7    Barack Obama    47%    John McCain    46%

American Research Group    Sept 16-19    Barack Obama    48%    John McCain    46%

Marketing Resource Group
of Lansing    Sept 15-19    Barack Obama    43%    John McCain    46%

NBC/Mason-Dixon    Sept 18-23    Barack Obama    46%    John McCain    46%

Strategic Vision    September 22–24    Barack Obama    48%    John McCain    45%    


I get your point about outlier polls like the recent Tennessee numbers, but don't think Michigan compares. The one thing that most of the numbers you posted have in common is that they all came in early or mid September 2008, the one point of that campaign where McCain was actually leading or tied with Obama. It was after the convention and Palin pick, but before the financial melt down. So McCain likely was close to Obama in Michigan during this period. Every poll out this month has shown Michigan a close race.


Even among that timeframe, he dishonestly hardcore cherry picked a handful of polls and ignored others. The RCP average from early or mid September 2008 in the daterange provided would have shown an Obama lead of +4.



Of course, now every poll is showing a tied race. No cherry picking necessary.

Because ignoring Rasmussen and PPP is in no way cherry-picking.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #13 on: June 25, 2012, 03:09:52 PM »

This is like those polls that showed Obama tied in Tennessee with low 40s numbers, they just don't equal competitiveness in November. Let's look at some 2008 polls for Michigan.

Public Policy Polling    September 6–7    Barack Obama    47%    John McCain    46%

American Research Group    Sept 16-19    Barack Obama    48%    John McCain    46%

Marketing Resource Group
of Lansing    Sept 15-19    Barack Obama    43%    John McCain    46%

NBC/Mason-Dixon    Sept 18-23    Barack Obama    46%    John McCain    46%

Strategic Vision    September 22–24    Barack Obama    48%    John McCain    45%    


I get your point about outlier polls like the recent Tennessee numbers, but don't think Michigan compares. The one thing that most of the numbers you posted have in common is that they all came in early or mid September 2008, the one point of that campaign where McCain was actually leading or tied with Obama. It was after the convention and Palin pick, but before the financial melt down. So McCain likely was close to Obama in Michigan during this period. Every poll out this month has shown Michigan a close race.


Even among that timeframe, he dishonestly hardcore cherry picked a handful of polls and ignored others. The RCP average from early or mid September 2008 in the daterange provided would have shown an Obama lead of +4.



Of course, now every poll is showing a tied race. No cherry picking necessary.

Because ignoring Rasmussen and PPP is in no way cherry-picking.

I'm not. The RCP average only uses the most recent polls.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #14 on: June 25, 2012, 03:11:40 PM »

Even if you'd generally be inclined to accept polls like this, the fact that there's this rash of polls out of this particular state lately that are significantly more Republican than Rasmussen should at least feel somewhat odd.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #15 on: June 25, 2012, 03:39:24 PM »

I see the fool's gold is shining.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #16 on: June 25, 2012, 03:50:50 PM »

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2620120615199
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ajb
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« Reply #17 on: June 25, 2012, 03:53:24 PM »

This is like those polls that showed Obama tied in Tennessee with low 40s numbers, they just don't equal competitiveness in November. Let's look at some 2008 polls for Michigan.

Public Policy Polling    September 6–7    Barack Obama    47%    John McCain    46%

American Research Group    Sept 16-19    Barack Obama    48%    John McCain    46%

Marketing Resource Group
of Lansing    Sept 15-19    Barack Obama    43%    John McCain    46%

NBC/Mason-Dixon    Sept 18-23    Barack Obama    46%    John McCain    46%

Strategic Vision    September 22–24    Barack Obama    48%    John McCain    45%    


I get your point about outlier polls like the recent Tennessee numbers, but don't think Michigan compares. The one thing that most of the numbers you posted have in common is that they all came in early or mid September 2008, the one point of that campaign where McCain was actually leading or tied with Obama. It was after the convention and Palin pick, but before the financial melt down. So McCain likely was close to Obama in Michigan during this period. Every poll out this month has shown Michigan a close race.


Even among that timeframe, he dishonestly hardcore cherry picked a handful of polls and ignored others. The RCP average from early or mid September 2008 in the daterange provided would have shown an Obama lead of +4.



Of course, now every poll is showing a tied race. No cherry picking necessary.

Because ignoring Rasmussen and PPP is in no way cherry-picking.

I'm not. The RCP average only uses the most recent polls.

As an aside, I've never known exactly how RCP decides what counts as "recent." It doesn't seem to be simply a certain number of polls, nor the polls conducted within a certain time frame.
In other words, letting RCP do your cherry-picking for you doesn't really change things.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #18 on: June 25, 2012, 06:44:46 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2012, 08:46:29 PM by Oldiesfreak1854 »


This unfortunate headline to Mitt Romney's article has been taken out of context.  What Romney meant is that GM should have gone through a privately managed (Chapter 11) bankruptcy that would have allowed them to stay in business and save jobs.  Ultimately, even with the money from the bailout, this is exactly what happened.  Do some research on bankruptcy laws if you've got the time for it.  His dad was an auto exec and Governor here, so I would think that he would know something about the auto industry.
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