Nate Silver has shifted Ohio from Tossup/Tilt D to Tossup/Tilt R

[Vosem]

Ever since Nate has been maintaining a prediction for this election (since May 31), his map has always been:


Barack Obama/Joe Biden 303
Mitt Romney/? 235

But now it's become:


Barack Obama/Joe Biden 285
Mitt Romney/? 253

Yes, I know Obama's still leading, but assuming Romney has shifted Ohio, that's a very significant step towards winning the election. With the map above, the election is decided by Colorado and Virginia (which are both rated Tossup/Tilt D, says Silver) -- if Romney can win both, he carries the election. (It should, of course, be noted that Ohio and Florida are both rated Tossup/Tilt R, and that Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire are all Leans D -- there are no states Silver currently rates Leans R).

Here's a link to Silver's site: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

It should also be pointed out that Silver currently says there is a 61% chance of an Obama victory and a 39% of a Romney victory. These numbers are updated daily (and sometimes multiple times a day), so small shifts in percentages are frequent, but it's rather rare for a state to switch from D to R, or vice versa, so I thought this deserved its own thread. Here's another map of Silver's predictions with Tossups colored grey:



Obama 263, Romney 206, Tossup 63. Funnily enough, if Romney does win all the Tossups, in 2004/2008 it would've meant the election goes to the House -- only because of the 2010 Census would that signify a Romney victory.

[Oakvale]

[BaldEagle1991]

It's been this way for months, it'll tip back.

[TJ in Wisco]

Silver's had Romney winning Ohio for about a week in his "Nowcast" model but Obama winning the "Forecast" model. Now the two agree, though Romney still does better in Ohio in the Nowcast model for some reason (seemingly the opposite of the other swing states).

The last change only took Ohio from Obama 50.5% of the time to Romney 50.3% of the time, so it isn't a huge change. It will be interesting to watch the model over the next 4+ months as events change the political landscape in whatever way will happen.

[Whose House?!]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

[MilesC56]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Yikes...

Welcome to the forum, by the way.

[Senator Napoleon]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Yikes...

Welcome back to the forum, by the way.

[True Federalist]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Weirdly enough, that could benefit Obama.  Surely you've notices how gas prices have plunged the past few weeks. A mild recession caused by the Euro crisis with its main effects not felt until after the election, but that keeps the easily noticed gas price down could cause people to feel good about the economy personally while it declines collectively.

[MilesC56]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Yikes...

Welcome back to the forum, by the way.

Oh, thats right...I didn't put two and two together. Now it makes sense.

[nkpatel1279]

Michigan and Wisconsin move into the Tossup/Tilt D collumn but they are likely to remain in the Obama-D collumn. 247ev. Due to the Immigration issue-Obama-D wins CO and NV. 262ev. IA-6 and NH-4 are also in the Tossup/Tilt D collumn.-which is holding Obama-D above 270ev. 272ev.
Winning VA-13 allows Obama-D to lose IA-6.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Well unlike 2004, the Ohio economy is better than the nation's as a whole.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

It's an interesting development, but ultimately, the polls out in a couple month will tell us more.

[Vosem]

Michigan and Wisconsin move into the Tossup/Tilt D collumn but they are likely to remain in the Obama-D collumn. 247ev. Due to the Immigration issue-Obama-D wins CO and NV. 262ev. IA-6 and NH-4 are also in the Tossup/Tilt D collumn.-which is holding Obama-D above 270ev. 272ev.
Winning VA-13 allows Obama-D to lose IA-6.

We're discussing Nate Silver's rankings, not yours...Silver rates NV and CO as more likely Republican victories than MI and WI (at the moment, at least...)

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Yikes...

Welcome back to the forum, by the way.

Who is it? Jmfcst?

[WhyteRain]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Weirdly enough, that could benefit Obama.  Surely you've notices how gas prices have plunged the past few weeks. A mild recession caused by the Euro crisis with its main effects not felt until after the election, but that keeps the easily noticed gas price down could cause people to feel good about the economy personally while it declines collectively.

I saw what was, for me anyway, an interesting poll recently.  It showed that 63% of consumers and 59% of investors think the U.S. is still in a recession.  I had been wondering for awhile whether consumers and investors had the same viewpoint on this.  (I'm an investor and I'm with the 59%.)

[modify:]  Weird coincidence.  I had no sooner posted this when I saw another story about a poll showing that 78% of consumers think the U.S. is still in a recession.  http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/25/us-economy-nielsen-idINBRE85O0L720120625

[argentarius]

Stop the presses.

[WhyteRain]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Weirdly enough, that could benefit Obama.  Surely you've notices how gas prices have plunged the past few weeks. A mild recession caused by the Euro crisis with its main effects not felt until after the election, but that keeps the easily noticed gas price down could cause people to feel good about the economy personally while it declines collectively.

The WSJ says people are pocketing the savings of lower gasoline costs, not spending them: 

Lower gasoline prices can be a bright spot for consumers in a weak economy. But so far, it appears they are pocketing the savings amid financial uncertainty rather than using the windfall to spend more on other things.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304441404577482761786743928.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[True Federalist]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Weirdly enough, that could benefit Obama.  Surely you've notices how gas prices have plunged the past few weeks. A mild recession caused by the Euro crisis with its main effects not felt until after the election, but that keeps the easily noticed gas price down could cause people to feel good about the economy personally while it declines collectively.

The WSJ says people are pocketing the savings of lower gasoline costs, not spending them: 

Lower gasoline prices can be a bright spot for consumers in a weak economy. But so far, it appears they are pocketing the savings amid financial uncertainty rather than using the windfall to spend more on other things.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304441404577482761786743928.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Given what's happened the last few years, I expect it will be a few more years before people generally feel confident.  Still, the fatter wallets will make them happier than if they were slim.   With people unlikely to think we've double dipped, it's going to take some rather gloomy economic numbers to get people who favor Obama now to either stay home or switch to Romney.  Lower gas prices aren't gloomy even tho the reason they are lower is.

[WhyteRain]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Weirdly enough, that could benefit Obama.  Surely you've notices how gas prices have plunged the past few weeks. A mild recession caused by the Euro crisis with its main effects not felt until after the election, but that keeps the easily noticed gas price down could cause people to feel good about the economy personally while it declines collectively.

The WSJ says people are pocketing the savings of lower gasoline costs, not spending them: 

Lower gasoline prices can be a bright spot for consumers in a weak economy. But so far, it appears they are pocketing the savings amid financial uncertainty rather than using the windfall to spend more on other things.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304441404577482761786743928.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Given what's happened the last few years, I expect it will be a few more years before people generally feel confident.  Still, the fatter wallets will make them happier than if they were slim.   With people unlikely to think we've double dipped, it's going to take some rather gloomy economic numbers to get people who favor Obama now to either stay home or switch to Romney.  Lower gas prices aren't gloomy even tho the reason they are lower is.

I'm not even sure what to say.

Didn't you read the post (on previous page on this thread) showing that 78% of consumers think we are in a recession now?  So that we've either "double-dipped" or never got out of the original recession that started about a year after Obama took power as part of the ruling Congressional majority in 2007?  No? 

And "rather gloomy economic numbers" needed for Obama to lose?  Um ... can you cite some economic numbers that were worse than these at this stage of some other president's first term?  From what I can tell, only Carter's in 1980 come close, but I'm dying to hear what you have to say on it.

(I realize the MSM isn't covering the economic horror show -- and that every bit of bad news is described as "surprising" -- but I would think that an erudite forum like this would know not to trust the MSM on the economy anymore than it would press releases from the Obama campaign itself.)

[True Federalist]

Exactly.  Since people are currently supporting Obama despite thinking we are already in a recession, then us actually going into one won't shake their support unless things get really bad really fast, and that doesn't appear to be what's happening.  Meanwhile commodity prices such as gasoline are going down now in anticipation of a probable downturn from the Euro crisis and to people who aren't political or economics junkies, that will seem like a good thing.  Most people don't base their feelings about what the economy is doing based on macroeconomic statistics, but on the microeconomics of what is happening to their own personal finances and how their friends and family are doing.  It's why Obama's support was going down earlier this year when gas prices were going up despite macroeconomic numbers that were somewhat encouraging.

James Carville wasn't precise enough with his famous quote.  It should be "It's the microeconomy, stupid."  Unlike what was happening with Carter, we have low interest rates and falling prices, both of which make the microeconomic situation for Obama much better than it was for ol' Peanuthead.

[milhouse24]

what's funny is that liberal commentators and Obama supporters say that Obama will win because the "new normal" is 8% unemployment, and citizens will just accept that that is what life will be like in america for the next 8 years or more depending on universal health care.  So, Obama will win because americans will just accept suckiness for the rest of our lives!

We can be just like France which has had 8-10% unemployment for the last 20 years.  In fact, the best French unemployment was 7.5% in 2008, what a great country! 

It just seems that the outspoken liberals in the media and young people blindly support Obama because its still the "cool" thing to do, and Romney is so boring and square.  He's just a brainy nerd in a suit. 

I have a feeling that in August and September, the tide will turn swiftly to Romney once he gets some actual exposure in the liberal media during the debates and convention; and "hip" Americans realize there is actually another person running for President against Obama and not some 70 year old geriatric. 

[BritishDixie]

what's funny is that liberal commentators and Obama supporters say that Obama will win because the "new normal" is 8% unemployment, and citizens will just accept that that is what life will be like in america for the next 8 years or more depending on universal health care.  So, Obama will win because americans will just accept suckiness for the rest of our lives!

We can be just like France which has had 8-10% unemployment for the last 20 years.  In fact, the best French unemployment was 7.5% in 2008, what a great country! 

It just seems that the outspoken liberals in the media and young people blindly support Obama because its still the "cool" thing to do, and Romney is so boring and square.  He's just a brainy nerd in a suit. 

We've had that in Britain since 1945. You'll get used to it (unfortunately).

Anyway that prediction map is the same as mine.

I have a feeling that in August and September, the tide will turn swiftly to Romney once he gets some actual exposure in the liberal media during the debates and convention; and "hip" Americans realize there is actually another person running for President against Obama and not some 70 year old geriatric. 

[Vosem]

Silver's had Romney winning Ohio for about a week in his "Nowcast" model but Obama winning the "Forecast" model.

True enough -- and now as of today he has Romney winning Virginia in the now-cast, though Obama continues to be carrying it in the Novembercast (the difference between the two is economic indicators, which are shifting things a little less than a point in Obama's favor, and of cours everything about the Novembercast is less certain).

Also, Obama seems to have surged for some reason in Colorado -- he was at 53% chance of victory there yesterday and now he's at 63%. Previously Romney's path to victory was the current map + VA + CO, but it now it seems the path of least resistance is current map + VA + IA. This map would, interestingly enough, be identical to 2004 in the East but identical to 2008 in the West (the line between East and West is defined as the line separating ND-SD-NE-KS-OK-TX from MN-IA-MO-AR-LA) -- which suggests to me current map + VA + IA might be a formula for a Romney EV victory occurring as Obama wins the PV -- indeed, Silver states the chance of Romney EV-Obama PV is 3.4% while the chance of the opposite (Obama EV-Romney PV) was 1.9%, even though conventional wisdom, rising from the good national Romney polls but poor statewide ones seemed to suggest a reverse-2000 was actually likely.

I would love to see the forum/the Internet/the world's reaction to Romney winning the EV but Obama the PV, preferably with some sort of Florida-2000/Minnesota Sen.-2008/New Hampshire Sen.-1974 debacle. It would be magnificent and hilarious to behold.

[Vosem]

And...Ohio has shifted back to Tossup/Tilt D in the Novembercast, and Virginia is also D again in the Nowcast -- though Ohio remains Republican in the Nowcast.