Nate Silver has shifted Ohio from Tossup/Tilt D to Tossup/Tilt R

[Vosem]

Ever since Nate has been maintaining a prediction for this election (since May 31), his map has always been:

Barack Obama/Joe Biden 303
Mitt Romney/? 235

But now it's become:

Barack Obama/Joe Biden 285
Mitt Romney/? 253

Yes, I know Obama's still leading, but assuming Romney has shifted Ohio, that's a very significant step towards winning the election. With the map above, the election is decided by Colorado and Virginia (which are both rated Tossup/Tilt D, says Silver) -- if Romney can win both, he carries the election. (It should, of course, be noted that Ohio and Florida are both rated Tossup/Tilt R, and that Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire are all Leans D -- there are no states Silver currently rates Leans R).

Here's a link to Silver's site: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

It should also be pointed out that Silver currently says there is a 61% chance of an Obama victory and a 39% of a Romney victory. These numbers are updated daily (and sometimes multiple times a day), so small shifts in percentages are frequent, but it's rather rare for a state to switch from D to R, or vice versa, so I thought this deserved its own thread. Here's another map of Silver's predictions with Tossups colored grey:

Obama 263, Romney 206, Tossup 63. Funnily enough, if Romney does win all the Tossups, in 2004/2008 it would've meant the election goes to the House -- only because of the 2010 Census would that signify a Romney victory.

[Vosem]

Michigan and Wisconsin move into the Tossup/Tilt D collumn but they are likely to remain in the Obama-D collumn. 247ev. Due to the Immigration issue-Obama-D wins CO and NV. 262ev. IA-6 and NH-4 are also in the Tossup/Tilt D collumn.-which is holding Obama-D above 270ev. 272ev.
Winning VA-13 allows Obama-D to lose IA-6.

We're discussing Nate Silver's rankings, not yours...Silver rates NV and CO as more likely Republican victories than MI and WI (at the moment, at least...)

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Yikes...

Welcome back to the forum, by the way.

Who is it? Jmfcst?

[Vosem]

Silver's had Romney winning Ohio for about a week in his "Nowcast" model but Obama winning the "Forecast" model.

True enough -- and now as of today he has Romney winning Virginia in the now-cast, though Obama continues to be carrying it in the Novembercast (the difference between the two is economic indicators, which are shifting things a little less than a point in Obama's favor, and of cours everything about the Novembercast is less certain).

Also, Obama seems to have surged for some reason in Colorado -- he was at 53% chance of victory there yesterday and now he's at 63%. Previously Romney's path to victory was the current map + VA + CO, but it now it seems the path of least resistance is current map + VA + IA. This map would, interestingly enough, be identical to 2004 in the East but identical to 2008 in the West (the line between East and West is defined as the line separating ND-SD-NE-KS-OK-TX from MN-IA-MO-AR-LA) -- which suggests to me current map + VA + IA might be a formula for a Romney EV victory occurring as Obama wins the PV -- indeed, Silver states the chance of Romney EV-Obama PV is 3.4% while the chance of the opposite (Obama EV-Romney PV) was 1.9%, even though conventional wisdom, rising from the good national Romney polls but poor statewide ones seemed to suggest a reverse-2000 was actually likely.

I would love to see the forum/the Internet/the world's reaction to Romney winning the EV but Obama the PV, preferably with some sort of Florida-2000/Minnesota Sen.-2008/New Hampshire Sen.-1974 debacle. It would be magnificent and hilarious to behold.

[Vosem]

And...Ohio has shifted back to Tossup/Tilt D in the Novembercast, and Virginia is also D again in the Nowcast -- though Ohio remains Republican in the Nowcast.