Nate Silver has shifted Ohio from Tossup/Tilt D to Tossup/Tilt R

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Weirdly enough, that could benefit Obama.  Surely you've notices how gas prices have plunged the past few weeks. A mild recession caused by the Euro crisis with its main effects not felt until after the election, but that keeps the easily noticed gas price down could cause people to feel good about the economy personally while it declines collectively.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Weirdly enough, that could benefit Obama.  Surely you've notices how gas prices have plunged the past few weeks. A mild recession caused by the Euro crisis with its main effects not felt until after the election, but that keeps the easily noticed gas price down could cause people to feel good about the economy personally while it declines collectively.

The WSJ says people are pocketing the savings of lower gasoline costs, not spending them: 

Lower gasoline prices can be a bright spot for consumers in a weak economy. But so far, it appears they are pocketing the savings amid financial uncertainty rather than using the windfall to spend more on other things.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304441404577482761786743928.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Given what's happened the last few years, I expect it will be a few more years before people generally feel confident.  Still, the fatter wallets will make them happier than if they were slim.   With people unlikely to think we've double dipped, it's going to take some rather gloomy economic numbers to get people who favor Obama now to either stay home or switch to Romney.  Lower gas prices aren't gloomy even tho the reason they are lower is.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Exactly.  Since people are currently supporting Obama despite thinking we are already in a recession, then us actually going into one won't shake their support unless things get really bad really fast, and that doesn't appear to be what's happening.  Meanwhile commodity prices such as gasoline are going down now in anticipation of a probable downturn from the Euro crisis and to people who aren't political or economics junkies, that will seem like a good thing.  Most people don't base their feelings about what the economy is doing based on macroeconomic statistics, but on the microeconomics of what is happening to their own personal finances and how their friends and family are doing.  It's why Obama's support was going down earlier this year when gas prices were going up despite macroeconomic numbers that were somewhat encouraging.

James Carville wasn't precise enough with his famous quote.  It should be "It's the microeconomy, stupid."  Unlike what was happening with Carter, we have low interest rates and falling prices, both of which make the microeconomic situation for Obama much better than it was for ol' Peanuthead.