Nate Silver has shifted Ohio from Tossup/Tilt D to Tossup/Tilt R

[WhyteRain]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Weirdly enough, that could benefit Obama.  Surely you've notices how gas prices have plunged the past few weeks. A mild recession caused by the Euro crisis with its main effects not felt until after the election, but that keeps the easily noticed gas price down could cause people to feel good about the economy personally while it declines collectively.

I saw what was, for me anyway, an interesting poll recently.  It showed that 63% of consumers and 59% of investors think the U.S. is still in a recession.  I had been wondering for awhile whether consumers and investors had the same viewpoint on this.  (I'm an investor and I'm with the 59%.)

[modify:]  Weird coincidence.  I had no sooner posted this when I saw another story about a poll showing that 78% of consumers think the U.S. is still in a recession.  http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/25/us-economy-nielsen-idINBRE85O0L720120625

[WhyteRain]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Weirdly enough, that could benefit Obama.  Surely you've notices how gas prices have plunged the past few weeks. A mild recession caused by the Euro crisis with its main effects not felt until after the election, but that keeps the easily noticed gas price down could cause people to feel good about the economy personally while it declines collectively.

The WSJ says people are pocketing the savings of lower gasoline costs, not spending them: 

Lower gasoline prices can be a bright spot for consumers in a weak economy. But so far, it appears they are pocketing the savings amid financial uncertainty rather than using the windfall to spend more on other things.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304441404577482761786743928.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[WhyteRain]

The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Weirdly enough, that could benefit Obama.  Surely you've notices how gas prices have plunged the past few weeks. A mild recession caused by the Euro crisis with its main effects not felt until after the election, but that keeps the easily noticed gas price down could cause people to feel good about the economy personally while it declines collectively.

The WSJ says people are pocketing the savings of lower gasoline costs, not spending them: 

Lower gasoline prices can be a bright spot for consumers in a weak economy. But so far, it appears they are pocketing the savings amid financial uncertainty rather than using the windfall to spend more on other things.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304441404577482761786743928.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Given what's happened the last few years, I expect it will be a few more years before people generally feel confident.  Still, the fatter wallets will make them happier than if they were slim.   With people unlikely to think we've double dipped, it's going to take some rather gloomy economic numbers to get people who favor Obama now to either stay home or switch to Romney.  Lower gas prices aren't gloomy even tho the reason they are lower is.

I'm not even sure what to say.

Didn't you read the post (on previous page on this thread) showing that 78% of consumers think we are in a recession now?  So that we've either "double-dipped" or never got out of the original recession that started about a year after Obama took power as part of the ruling Congressional majority in 2007?  No? 

And "rather gloomy economic numbers" needed for Obama to lose?  Um ... can you cite some economic numbers that were worse than these at this stage of some other president's first term?  From what I can tell, only Carter's in 1980 come close, but I'm dying to hear what you have to say on it.

(I realize the MSM isn't covering the economic horror show -- and that every bit of bad news is described as "surprising" -- but I would think that an erudite forum like this would know not to trust the MSM on the economy anymore than it would press releases from the Obama campaign itself.)