Can anyone explain Mississippi's weird results from 1956-1964?
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  Can anyone explain Mississippi's weird results from 1956-1964?
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Author Topic: Can anyone explain Mississippi's weird results from 1956-1964?  (Read 5698 times)
freepcrusher
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« Reply #25 on: July 11, 2012, 11:03:06 PM »

the white vote exit polls are wrong in some states. Evidence suggests that while McCain obviously won whites by a huge margin in the south, it wasn't by as much. From what I see in the south he got:

73% in Texas
72% in Oklahoma
no partisan data for Arkansas
79% in Louisiana
82% in Mississippi
77% in Alabama
58% in Florida
72% in Georgia
69% in South Carolina
61% in North Carolina
67% in Tennessee
no partisan data for Kentucky or West Virginia
59% in Virginia
56% in Maryland
46% in Delaware

How did you determine that data?

Dave's Redistricting App. You can see my thread about it below:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=154691.0

That wouldn't take into account racial turnout differentials or behavior of localized 'minoritied' groups (that is, whites in heavily black areas or blacks in heavily white areas) which evidence suggests vote differently than those in areas where they're a supermajority. While you'd get relatively close, I'd take those numbers with a grain of salt.

which is why I have a separate category for that called "Mixed Race Precincts" where no race is more than 75% of the population.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #26 on: July 12, 2012, 12:41:54 AM »

the white vote exit polls are wrong in some states. Evidence suggests that while McCain obviously won whites by a huge margin in the south, it wasn't by as much. From what I see in the south he got:

73% in Texas
72% in Oklahoma
no partisan data for Arkansas
79% in Louisiana
82% in Mississippi
77% in Alabama
58% in Florida
72% in Georgia
69% in South Carolina
61% in North Carolina
67% in Tennessee
no partisan data for Kentucky or West Virginia
59% in Virginia
56% in Maryland
46% in Delaware

How did you determine that data?

Dave's Redistricting App. You can see my thread about it below:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=154691.0

That wouldn't take into account racial turnout differentials or behavior of localized 'minoritied' groups (that is, whites in heavily black areas or blacks in heavily white areas) which evidence suggests vote differently than those in areas where they're a supermajority. While you'd get relatively close, I'd take those numbers with a grain of salt.

which is why I have a separate category for that called "Mixed Race Precincts" where no race is more than 75% of the population.

Yes, I have no problem with your thread, but the numbers you posted above don't take into account those mixed race precincts, only the heavily x-race precincts.
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