Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 02, 2014, 01:25:31 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  How will the Supreme Court's Health Care Reform ruling ...
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7 Print
Poll
Question: impact President Obama's approval ratings in the coming days/weeks ?
Reform thrown out completely/Approvals rise
Reform thrown out completely/Approvals sink
Reform thrown out completely/Approvals not changing
Reform thrown partially out/Approvals rise
Reform thrown partially out/Approvals sink
Reform thrown partially out/Approvals not changing
Reform upheld/Approvals rise
Reform upheld/Approvals sink
Reform upheld/Approvals not changing
Show Pie Chart

Author Topic: How will the Supreme Court's Health Care Reform ruling ...  (Read 4644 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34272
Austria


View Profile
« on: June 28, 2012, 12:01:46 am »
Ignore

What do you think ?

I'll be pessimistic and say Option 3: Reform thrown completely out/Approvals not changing
Logged
Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16021


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2012, 12:07:14 am »
Ignore

My guess- Reform thrown completely out/Approvals not changing-- maybe sinking slightly due to negative press coverage.
Logged

Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22170
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2012, 12:12:39 am »
Ignore

Safe bet: It will be a 5-4 decision.
Logged
President John Hay
clarence
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4731
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2012, 12:14:59 am »
Ignore

I don't see how the bill being thrown out would lead to anything other then a freefall in Obama's approvals... his signature achievement thrown out would be the theme kicking off every nightly news across America
Logged

Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16021


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2012, 12:20:41 am »
Ignore

I don't see how the bill being thrown out would lead to anything other then a freefall in Obama's approvals... his signature achievement thrown out would be the theme kicking off every nightly news across America

Well, two points (1) it would be rightly seen as the fault of the Supreme Court. Even those who oppose the law admit that it being thrown out was highly unlikely in early 2010. No one could have been expected to foresee such activism. (2), Obama's approvals aren't based on "his signature achievement." They're based on the fact that he's a Democrat, the state of the economy, and his personal character. Obamacare being thrown out wouldn't lead his support to collapse. Only if he betrayed his party in some fundamental way (nearly impossible), the economy crashed into a depression, or a Edwards/Nixon-style personal scandal would do that. But yeah the negative news coverage would probably hurt his ratings.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2012, 12:22:32 am by Beet »Logged

Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22170
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2012, 12:22:16 am »
Ignore

I don't see how the bill being thrown out would lead to anything other then a freefall in Obama's approvals... his signature achievement thrown out would be the theme kicking off every nightly news across America

Well, it would be rightly seen as the fault of the Supreme Court. Even those who oppose the law admit that it being thrown out was highly unlikely in early 2010. No one could have been expected to foresee such activism. But yeah the negative news coverage would probably hurt his ratings.

You seem to be misinformed. It's not activism if Republicans do it.
Logged
NVGonzalez
antwnzrr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1753
Mexico


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2012, 12:30:18 am »
Ignore

The mandate will likely get thrown out and a poopstorm will break out. Court approvals will fall significantly no matter what they do though.
Logged




Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35772
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2012, 12:36:11 am »
Ignore

Option 3 is my first guess.  Behind that is that it's partially thrown out.
Logged
greenforest32
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2560


Political Matrix
E: -7.94, S: -8.43

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2012, 12:38:42 am »
Ignore

Toss-up between option 5 and 6 for me.

I think the mandate will be struck down but I don't know if that alone would really sink his approvals as it has never been popular.

It might if he goes out and defends the mandate. If he proposes a progressive alternative (public option, Medicare buy-in, etc), I could see flat approvals.
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31728


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2012, 12:40:17 am »
Ignore

Toss-up between option 5 and 6 for me.

I think the mandate will be struck down but I don't know if that alone would really sink his approvals as it has never been popular.

It might if he goes out and defends the mandate. If he proposes a progressive alternative (public option, Medicare buy-in, etc), I could see flat approvals.

If either of his appointees throws out any part of the bill, that would obviously be a huge Romney victory.
Logged
All In For KC
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18387
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2012, 12:42:07 am »
Ignore

I'm certain the mandate will be struck down, but not sure on the rest of the law. I think it'll sink Obama a couple points. I think it'll be a good ending to another good month for Romney. If its struck down, I'd certainly argue Romney "won" May and June.
Logged


"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives."
-Jackie Robinson
technical support
thrillr1111
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 309
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2012, 12:43:06 am »
Ignore

Most of us already know whats going to happen. The republican supreme court will of course throw it out. i would be shock if the polls,intrade,ect were wrong. But it's quite obvious whats going to happen. 9 judges get to decide millions of peoples heathcare plan.
Logged
greenforest32
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2560


Political Matrix
E: -7.94, S: -8.43

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2012, 12:45:24 am »
Ignore

Toss-up between option 5 and 6 for me.

I think the mandate will be struck down but I don't know if that alone would really sink his approvals as it has never been popular.

It might if he goes out and defends the mandate. If he proposes a progressive alternative (public option, Medicare buy-in, etc), I could see flat approvals.

If either of his appointees throws out any part of the bill, that would obviously be a huge Romney victory.

The only thing I could see his appointees throwing out is the mandate though the unpopular part would be deciding what provisions are linked and go out with it.

Maybe they could troll a bit and strike down the state-level mandate in Massachusetts too? Tongue
Logged
President von Cat
captain copernicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 615


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2012, 03:59:49 am »
Ignore

I'm certain the mandate will be struck down, but not sure on the rest of the law. I think it'll sink Obama a couple points. I think it'll be a good ending to another good month for Romney. If its struck down, I'd certainly argue Romney "won" May and June.

I wouldn't, and opinion polls would agree with me.
Logged


It makes me happy Republicans will never be able to say they defeated Obama. Never ever.
technical support
thrillr1111
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 309
United States


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2012, 06:20:30 am »
Ignore

 If it goes 5-4 then it was political.
Logged
Harry
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19011
United States


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: June 28, 2012, 07:32:01 am »
Ignore

The mandate will be upheld; Obama's approval won't have any immediate effects, but in the long run it will be good for him, just because it avoids the disaster of the mandate being thrown out.
Logged
Harry
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19011
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: June 28, 2012, 07:34:38 am »
Ignore

I'm certain the mandate will be struck down

No you aren't.  You might turn out to be right, but you, like everyone else, don't have a clue.  It's all just guessing.
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22170
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2012, 07:45:55 am »
Ignore

So when can we expect the ruling?
Logged
Paleobrazilian
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 273
Brazil


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2012, 08:11:37 am »
Ignore

So when can we expect the ruling?

10:00 ET. Only 50 minutes to go now.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34272
Austria


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: June 28, 2012, 08:56:05 am »
Ignore

Is there a live-stream or will there be a press release ?
Logged
WhyteRain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 952
Political Matrix
E: 6.19, S: -2.78

P

View Profile
« Reply #20 on: June 28, 2012, 09:01:49 am »
Ignore

If it goes 5-4 then it was political.

Yup, the 4 should join the 5 and make it unanimous.  I think you could get a 9-0 decision to partially overturn it.
Logged
WhyteRain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 952
Political Matrix
E: 6.19, S: -2.78

P

View Profile
« Reply #21 on: June 28, 2012, 09:04:22 am »
Ignore

I don't see how the bill being thrown out would lead to anything other then a freefall in Obama's approvals... his signature achievement thrown out would be the theme kicking off every nightly news across America

I sort of see the opposite.  If the SC strikes down DemocratCare, then the GOP loses one of its biggest voter-mobilization arguments -- that "we must elect Republicans to the WH and Congress who will repeal it".

Meanwhile, I think the Democrats' base will be newly inspired.

So, ironically, the GOP should hope it's upheld while the Democrats hope it's struck down. 
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32036
United States


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: June 28, 2012, 09:05:01 am »
Ignore

Is there a live-stream or will there be a press release ?

Press release.  Stolen valor act unconstitutional.
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Senator JCL and the geologist
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4404
United States


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: June 28, 2012, 09:09:14 am »
Ignore

This baby is coming down.
Logged

Congressional Races
Jackie Walorski (R/IN-2)
Marlin Stutzman (R/IN-3)
Todd Rokita (R/IN-4)
Chard Reid (Lib/IN-5)
Luke Messer (R/IN-6)
Tom Massie (R/KY-4)
David Brat (R/VA-7)
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31728


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: June 28, 2012, 09:09:44 am »
Ignore

Mandate survives?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines