Strange county results

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In yet another doomed attempt to rescue the 2004 Results Forum from partisan trolls...

Which county results seem strange to you? Both who won and swings etc. count.

Interesting to see how many can be explained

[Alcon]

The only really weird results I observed were third parties doing oddly well in some Mississippi counties, but it could have just been the ballot. Mississippi has always done that.

[muon2]

I'll help you out.

In IL, Gore beat Bush 54.6% to 42.6%, a 12% margin. In 2004, Kerry won 54.8% to 44.5%, a 10.3% margin. Nine counties switched to Bush between those elections: LaSalle, Henry, Macon, Montgomery, Macoupin, Perry, Franklin, Gallatin and Pulaski.

Now I would expect some counies to switch because Dem margin was not quite as large in 2004 as in 2000. However, it is interesting to note that in 1988 when the elder Bush carried IL, all those counties were taken by Dukakis. Furthermore, Franklin and Gallatin were carried by Mondale over Reagan in the 1984 landslide. The fact that GWB carried them all in 2004 says something about the change in rural middle american voting patterns, IMO.

[Alcon]

This year, Mono and Alpine County, California, looked weirdly out of place. The counties, located on the Nevada border, voted 49.2-49.1 Kerry and 53.2-44.4 Kerry, respectively. They were fairly close for eastern California counties in 2000, but their history makes the switch a surprise. They did not go Clinton, even in the 1992 landslide, although both were won by Bush with less than 40% of the vote.

Mono County voted Nixon over Humphrey in 1968, by 64.3%-26.5%, making it the most Republican county in the state (even over Orange). Alpine voted 59.3%-32.8%.

In 1964, both counties voted Goldwater, Alpine 57.7-42.3 and Mono 56.1-43.9. The only other counties to do so were Orange (55.9-44.0), San Diego (50.3-49.7), and Sutter (51.6-48.3).

[phk]

Teton, Wyoming

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Macon, IL.

There was obviously some fraud there.

[Alcon]

Macon, IL.

There was obviously some fraud there.

Um, why?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sharkey, Mississippi looks seriously wrong.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Because even in 2000 the Democrats won it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Macon, IL.

There was obviously some fraud there.

For a moment I thought you meant Macon, AL, Kerry's 4th best county.

[Alcon]

Because even in 2000 the Democrats won it.

Um...wow.

And you know what else the Democrats won in 2000? The popular vote of the country as a whole. And a lot of other counties.

Just because they voted for a different candidate this year does not mean it was fraud. It means they voted for a different candidate this year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Furthermore, Franklin and Gallatin were carried by Mondale over Reagan in the 1984 landslide. The fact that GWB carried them all in 2004 says something about the change in rural middle american voting patterns, IMO.

That Kerry managed to lose those two counties says more about where his campaign went wrong... a failure to adress economic issues (or even to make it the main plank of his campaign) and too much pandering to liberals as opposed to Democrats.

Interestingly, in Frankin turnout was more or less the same as last time round... it's seems as though 2000 or so voters just went "f*** you" and switched their votes and in Gallatin turnout actually fell slightly...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This year, Mono and Alpine County, California, looked weirdly out of place. The counties, located on the Nevada border, voted 49.2-49.1 Kerry and 53.2-44.4 Kerry, respectively. They were fairly close for eastern California counties in 2000, but their history makes the switch a surprise. They did not go Clinton, even in the 1992 landslide, although both were won by Bush with less than 40% of the vote.

Mono County voted Nixon over Humphrey in 1968, by 64.3%-26.5%, making it the most Republican county in the state (even over Orange). Alpine voted 59.3%-32.8%.

In 1964, both counties voted Goldwater, Alpine 57.7-42.3 and Mono 56.1-43.9. The only other counties to do so were Orange (55.9-44.0), San Diego (50.3-49.7), and Sutter (51.6-48.3).

Yucca Mountain

[minionofmidas]

Take a look at the Hawai'i overseas vote 2000 and 2004.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Take a look at the Hawai'i overseas vote 2000 and 2004.

55% D in 2000, 80% D in 2004. Why did that happen?

[minionofmidas]

Take a look at the Hawai'i overseas vote 2000 and 2004.

55% D in 2000, 80% D in 2004. Why did that happen?

Take a look at the total number of votes, and it will presently become clear.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

80 overseas votes in 2000/428 in 2004

[Alcon]

This year, Mono and Alpine County, California, looked weirdly out of place. The counties, located on the Nevada border, voted 49.2-49.1 Kerry and 53.2-44.4 Kerry, respectively. They were fairly close for eastern California counties in 2000, but their history makes the switch a surprise. They did not go Clinton, even in the 1992 landslide, although both were won by Bush with less than 40% of the vote.

Mono County voted Nixon over Humphrey in 1968, by 64.3%-26.5%, making it the most Republican county in the state (even over Orange). Alpine voted 59.3%-32.8%.

In 1964, both counties voted Goldwater, Alpine 57.7-42.3 and Mono 56.1-43.9. The only other counties to do so were Orange (55.9-44.0), San Diego (50.3-49.7), and Sutter (51.6-48.3).

Yucca Mountain

Nope. Yucca Mountain is in Tulare County, which is near Fresno. It actually voted Bush by an even bigger margin, well above the national average change.

I'd personally bet on them being resort counties. We did well in those places this year - Teton, Wyoming, for instance.

[Sam Spade]

Actually, the shifts in Travis and Williamson County, Texas surprised me a bit.  Travis is really the only "left-wing" county in Texas, where there are out of place Northern California voters. 

Nader got nearly 10% there in 2000 and Bush won the county by 5%.  Without Nader in 2004, Kerry won the county by 14%.  I'm pretty sure that was the largest swing in the nation for the Dems and Nader was not the only part of it.

Williamson County (heavily Republican) north of Austin also switched big-time.  Bush only won it by 31.4%, after winning it by nearly 40% in 2000 with Nader taking 3%.

Some of the other smaller counties around Austin show a little similar bias, though less and less as you go out.

If Bush didn't improve as greatly as he did in east Texas and the Hispanics in the Rio Grande Valley, he wouldn't have improved his percentage there as he did; he probably would have lost ground.

And yes, resort counties really shifted Democrat this year.

I wonder how much of that had to do with those windsurfing commercials?

[minionofmidas]

Actually, the shifts in Travis and Williamson County, Texas surprised me a bit.  Travis is really the only "left-wing" county in Texas, where there are out of place Northern California voters. 

Nader got nearly 10% there in 2000 and Bush won the county by 5%.  Without Nader in 2004, Kerry won the county by 14%.  I'm pretty sure that was the largest swing in the nation for the Dems and Nader was not the only part of it.

San Miguel Co, CO, was the largest Dem swing - about 28 (or 14, depends on your definition) point, or about 8 (4) points larger than in Travis county, which I guess is in the top twenty but not very far up (it's the largest Dem shift in the South though)

[Sam Spade]

Actually, the shifts in Travis and Williamson County, Texas surprised me a bit.  Travis is really the only "left-wing" county in Texas, where there are out of place Northern California voters. 

Nader got nearly 10% there in 2000 and Bush won the county by 5%.  Without Nader in 2004, Kerry won the county by 14%.  I'm pretty sure that was the largest swing in the nation for the Dems and Nader was not the only part of it.

San Miguel Co, CO, was the largest Dem swing - about 28 (or 14, depends on your definition) point, or about 8 (4) points larger than in Travis county, which I guess is in the top twenty but not very far up (it's the largest Dem shift in the South though)

ok, thanks.  I hadn't done that much examination into the figures yet.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kittson, MN

Hardly any different from the rural ND areas bordering it. One county I definately wasn't counting on flipping to Kerry.

[phk]

Fresno County shifting even harder to Bush was a bummer, but not strange.

[Blue Rectangle]

Actually, the shifts in Travis and Williamson County, Texas surprised me a bit.  Travis is really the only "left-wing" county in Texas, where there are out of place Northern California voters. 

Nader got nearly 10% there in 2000 and Bush won the county by 5%.  Without Nader in 2004, Kerry won the county by 14%.  I'm pretty sure that was the largest swing in the nation for the Dems and Nader was not the only part of it.

San Miguel Co, CO, was the largest Dem swing - about 28 (or 14, depends on your definition) point, or about 8 (4) points larger than in Travis county, which I guess is in the top twenty but not very far up (it's the largest Dem shift in the South though)

Wow, 4000 votes cast in a county with a population of 7000.  SoS office says 4700 registered voters for 2004, so there obviously aren't a lot of minors in this county.  The crazy thing is that Bush's numbers were not changed, but the Democratic votes almost doubled in number.

[Alcon]

Actually, the shifts in Travis and Williamson County, Texas surprised me a bit.  Travis is really the only "left-wing" county in Texas, where there are out of place Northern California voters. 

Nader got nearly 10% there in 2000 and Bush won the county by 5%.  Without Nader in 2004, Kerry won the county by 14%.  I'm pretty sure that was the largest swing in the nation for the Dems and Nader was not the only part of it.

San Miguel Co, CO, was the largest Dem swing - about 28 (or 14, depends on your definition) point, or about 8 (4) points larger than in Travis county, which I guess is in the top twenty but not very far up (it's the largest Dem shift in the South though)

Wow, 4000 votes cast in a county with a population of 7000.  SoS office says 4700 registered voters for 2004, so there obviously aren't a lot of minors in this county.  The crazy thing is that Bush's numbers were not changed, but the Democratic votes almost doubled in number.

Only 17.6% of San Miguel County residents are under 18, much less than the 25.6% state average.

It's a ski resort county and includes Telluride.