Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 01, 2014, 11:29:12 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  How does a Democrat win a Georgia Governor's race?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: How does a Democrat win a Georgia Governor's race?  (Read 3200 times)
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1731


View Profile
« on: June 28, 2012, 04:23:55 pm »
Ignore

Let's say it's 2014 or 2018 and there's a gubernatorial election in Georgia. How do the Democrats break their losing streak? Can they unify the same coalition that helped them win in the past? I'd say no. Here's my hypothetical map.



Georgia Democrats used to dominate in south Georgia. With current political and racial polarization, I don't think this is a winning strategy. Although I do have my hypothetical democrat performing fairly well in South Georgia. He picks up most of the black belt counties and a smattering of others.

He loses in North Georgia. Still, he (or she!) does about as well as can be reasonably expected, keeping the Republican under 65% in a lot of the counties, which is still an improvement.

The new are of strength is metro Atlanta. My Democrat wins the traditional urban counties, but also wins some heavily African American exurban counties on the southside. The biggest change is that he wins Cobb and Gwinnett, though very narrowly.

If a Democrat wins the governor's race in GA in the next decade, this is what I think a victory would look like.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2012, 04:30:10 pm by cope1989 »Logged

Can't we all just get along?
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6545
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2012, 04:35:00 pm »
Ignore

Roy Barnes has to run again if democrats want to have an opportunity here... I don't see any other democrat who could make 2014 a close race. Maybe Marshall.
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14790
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: 4.35

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2012, 04:52:53 pm »
Ignore

Roy Barnes has to run again if democrats want to have an opportunity here... I don't see any other democrat who could make 2014 a close race. Maybe Marshall.

Or John Barrow. He could be out of his House seat by 2012 and looking for a new job. I think Barrow could cobble together the necessary coalition of Atlanta liberals, educated suburban voters and rural Dixiecrats to win.
Logged


Vote UKIP!
MasterSanders
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1000
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2012, 12:39:37 am »
Ignore

He doesn't.

I believe that the election of Nathan Deal has sealed the GOP's hold on the Peach State for now.Most white Democrats have gone Republican, anyway.
Logged

old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1731


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2012, 07:45:59 am »
Ignore

You really think the Republicans will dominate Georgia for as long and as forcefully as the Democrats did? I don't. The Democratic party only controlled the state like it did because African Americans weren't able to vote and white voters were almost uniformally rural, evangelical and conservative.

A lot of that still exsist in the state, but our minority population is much larger and much more enfranchised, and growth in the state has brought in all types of people- liberal, moderate and conservative.

The state GOP will probably control the legislature for the foreseeable future, but I don't see how they can hold on to the Governorship for more than one or two more cycles. As soon as the Democrats build up a decent bench I think they'll have a good shot.
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5298
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2012, 08:16:43 am »
Ignore

Wait a couple more terms of positive demographic change. It's inconceivable that it won't eventually lean Democrat, but it's not yet ready to.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18334
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2012, 10:18:43 am »
Ignore

I think if Georgia's willing to elect someone like Nathan Deal, who even I didn't support, I think it's going to be very difficult for them to take back the Governor's Mansion for at least a decade, barring scandal.

Still wishing Handel was in there now...
Logged


"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives."
-Jackie Robinson
timothyinMD
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 441


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2012, 10:50:48 am »
Ignore

How does a Democrat win a Georgia Governor's race?

They don't.  They're Democrats

Lol at who said run Roy Barnes.  He's a loser
Logged
Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18845
United States
View Profile
« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2012, 01:49:36 pm »
Ignore

Be Zell Miller.
Logged
asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12483


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2012, 02:36:50 pm »
Ignore

How does a Democrat win a Georgia Governor's race?

They don't.  They're Democrats

Lol at who said run Roy Barnes.  He's a loser

He won in the past and came, as far as I'm aware, unexpectedly close to Deal in an incredibly Republican year. It's not likely that Georgia will see another Democratic governor in 2014, but to pretend that Georgia is as monolithically Republican as it used to be Democratic is facile.
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5178
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2012, 03:08:35 pm »
Ignore

Yeah...I don't think they do, nowadays.
Logged

I apologize for being so adamantly right.
BeccaM
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1111
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2012, 03:45:28 pm »
Ignore

If 53-43 is considered unexpectedly close, that pretty much answers this question.
Logged

Warner for Senate '14
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30559
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2012, 03:59:35 pm »
Ignore

They wait 20-25 years for demographics to change, and then cobble together a coalition of blacks, liberal whites, and Hispanics.
Logged

Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1731


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: June 29, 2012, 05:58:51 pm »
Ignore

If 53-43 is considered unexpectedly close, that pretty much answers this question.

considering that Perdue won by 20 points in 2006, a very good year for Democrats, I'd say that was unexpectedly close.

I think Deal will be reelected in 2014, but I have a hunch that 2018 could be competitive.

As someone said, Georgia is not nearly as solidly Republican as people think it is, and it's becoming more competitive by the day. It'll just take time for the voters to tire of the GOP and the democrats here to get their s**t together.
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18334
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #14 on: June 29, 2012, 05:59:56 pm »
Ignore

How does a Democrat win a Georgia Governor's race?

They don't.  They're Democrats

Lol at who said run Roy Barnes.  He's a loser

He won in the past and came, as far as I'm aware, unexpectedly close to Deal in an incredibly Republican year. It's not likely that Georgia will see another Democratic governor in 2014, but to pretend that Georgia is as monolithically Republican as it used to be Democratic is facile.

Huh? How was it unexpectedly close?

I was in Georgia during the primary and for a while after - that race was considered originally to be a toss-up, and many thought Barnes was favor. Deal actually pulled away in the last few months.
Logged


"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives."
-Jackie Robinson
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6545
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2012, 06:59:04 pm »
Ignore

How does a Democrat win a Georgia Governor's race?

They don't.  They're Democrats

Lol at who said run Roy Barnes.  He's a loser

He won in the past and came, as far as I'm aware, unexpectedly close to Deal in an incredibly Republican year. It's not likely that Georgia will see another Democratic governor in 2014, but to pretend that Georgia is as monolithically Republican as it used to be Democratic is facile.

Huh? How was it unexpectedly close?

I was in Georgia during the primary and for a while after - that race was considered originally to be a toss-up, and many thought Barnes was favor. Deal actually pulled away in the last few months.

But dems had "better" candidates in not-so-republican states, like Ellsworth in Indiana, Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas (I know AR hates Obama more than GA), Goddard in AZ, Culver in IA... who lost by more than Barnes. So, considering that, I think Barnes could be a good candidate in 2014.
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4963


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: June 30, 2012, 10:57:11 pm »
Ignore

I think if Georgia's willing to elect someone like Nathan Deal, who even I didn't support, I think it's going to be very difficult for them to take back the Governor's Mansion for at least a decade, barring scandal.

Still wishing Handel was in there now...

Deal won in what was the best Republican year since 1894 and only got 53%.  In a 2006 or even a neutral cycle like 1998, Deal would have lost. 
Logged
Vote UKIP!
MasterSanders
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1000
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: July 09, 2012, 07:55:51 am »
Ignore

Even with shifting demographics, I still do not see the Democrats winning the governor's seat within he next 20 years. Such a Democrat would have to be centre to center right in order to appeal to suburbans (I.e. Gwinnett County) and rural voters.

I never thought Barnes had a chance. Not after the whole flag fiasco a few years back. There is no other viable Democrat, at least at the moment, who could win. Maybe John Barrow, but none that I could see.
Logged

old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1731


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: July 09, 2012, 03:24:22 pm »
Ignore

Even with shifting demographics, I still do not see the Democrats winning the governor's seat within he next 20 years. Such a Democrat would have to be centre to center right in order to appeal to suburbans (I.e. Gwinnett County) and rural voters.

I never thought Barnes had a chance. Not after the whole flag fiasco a few years back. There is no other viable Democrat, at least at the moment, who could win. Maybe John Barrow, but none that I could see.

I guarantee you a Democrat with win the Governor's race in less than 20 years. Your prediction is wishful thinking at best. And yes, the Democrat would probably be more conservative than national Democrats, but it's foolish to think that the GOP will have a 30 year winning streak. That was probable 50 years ago, when white Georgia were overehemingly Democratic and Blacks couldn't vote, but the state is much different now.
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1636
United States


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2012, 09:09:36 pm »
Ignore

The ideal circumstance would be an open election with a Republican in the White House.

The party in the White House typically does poorly in the midterms. But incumbent Governors tend not to be blamed for any disagreements in Washington. In 2006, Republican Governors were reelected in Minnesota, California and Vermont. In 2010, a Democratic Governor was reelected in Arkansas, although Governors of Ohio and Iowa were defeated.

So if the stars align, with Democrats choosing a talented candidate during a favorable cycle and the Republicans choosing someone less appealing, the Democrats have a good chance of getting one of their own elected Governor of Georgia.

The party's bench seems to be weak, as the legislators tend to come from liberal areas. An ideal candidate would be the US Attorney, who can presumably appeal to conservative voters as a law and order candidate.

Former Georgia Attorney General Thurbert Baker seems like an okay candidate. He lost his 2010 Gubernatorial primary to former Governor Roy Barnes.
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3637
Mexico


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2012, 10:47:33 pm »
Ignore

The Republican hacks in here amuse me.
Logged



Economic score: -6.26
Social score: -7.74
Lowly Griff
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5460
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: August 11, 2012, 03:41:13 am »
Ignore

I have a whole series of thoughts on this topic, but it's already late so I will just post a couple of initial things.

Roy Barnes was the best chance for us in 2010 and may still be come 2014. I have another candidate in mind for 2014 or perhaps 2018. I'm fairly against the idea of a third Barnes run, but he did manage to perform very well given the 2010 national wave of Republicanism. As was mentioned before, Barnes managed to halve the margin of loss in 2010 when compared to 2006 - which should have been a great year for Georgia Democrats (and very well have been, relatively) but was a disaster.

Here's a map showing the swing in 2010 compared to 2006 (LOL at the four cute counties that decided to decrease both RPI & DPI and go + Libertarian):



Barnes managed to gain some relative traction in many parts of the state, including the unbreakable northern part. Deal had hometown advantage in NE Georgia and did quite well in conservative, formerly Democratic areas in SE Georgia. Again, I have to emphasize: does this look like a typical 2010 swing map?



Also, there's this map showing above-average (% of pop) minority and white counties. Since the map was designed to illustrate electoral possibilities:

  • With whites, I defined "above-average" at 60%, which is 5 points higher than the state average. (votes in higher proportion)
  • With minorities, I defined "above-average" at 40%, which is 5 points lower than the state average (sizable ineligible Latino population)



A ton of potential in many counties awaits the Democratic Party if it ever develops an effective GOTV effort outside of Atlanta.

And finally, what I imagine an ever-so-slight 2014/2018 Democratic victory looking like, assuming the candidate is white (I can't see your image, cope; would love to compare):

« Last Edit: August 11, 2012, 03:47:43 am by IDS Legislator Griffin »Logged

I don't have to meet a certain standard in order for God to allow me into heaven.
IDS Emperor Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12127
Germany


Political Matrix
E: 6.52, S: -7.57

P

View Profile
« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2012, 04:17:53 pm »
Ignore

by being really conservative.
Logged

Boot out the Bums! Vote for Dorman for Governor!

JacobNC
psychicpanda
Full Member
***
Posts: 176
United States


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2012, 07:57:11 pm »
Ignore

Huh? How was it unexpectedly close?

He overperformed.  Or at least, he kept Deal at McCain's percentage (which was very much an underperformance).  A Republican in Georgia should've won 60-40 in 2010, at least.  Sparks in Alabama also overperformed, but I don't see Democrats winning there in the near future.

Sink in Florida and Sheheen in South Carolina are two Southern Democrats who definitely would've won in another year.
Logged
JacobNC
psychicpanda
Full Member
***
Posts: 176
United States


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: August 19, 2012, 08:00:49 pm »
Ignore

The ideal circumstance would be an open election with a Republican in the White House.

The party in the White House typically does poorly in the midterms. But incumbent Governors tend not to be blamed for any disagreements in Washington. In 2006, Republican Governors were reelected in Minnesota, California and Vermont. In 2010, a Democratic Governor was reelected in Arkansas, although Governors of Ohio and Iowa were defeated.

That's a good point - in fact, in 2006, Democrats' best states were Wyoming, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arizona.  Republicans' best were Connecticut and Hawaii.  Gubernatorial elections are not affected by national politics nearly as much as Senate and House races.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines