How does a Democrat win a Georgia Governor's race?

[old timey villain]

Let's say it's 2014 or 2018 and there's a gubernatorial election in Georgia. How do the Democrats break their losing streak? Can they unify the same coalition that helped them win in the past? I'd say no. Here's my hypothetical map.



Georgia Democrats used to dominate in south Georgia. With current political and racial polarization, I don't think this is a winning strategy. Although I do have my hypothetical democrat performing fairly well in South Georgia. He picks up most of the black belt counties and a smattering of others.

He loses in North Georgia. Still, he (or she!) does about as well as can be reasonably expected, keeping the Republican under 65% in a lot of the counties, which is still an improvement.

The new are of strength is metro Atlanta. My Democrat wins the traditional urban counties, but also wins some heavily African American exurban counties on the southside. The biggest change is that he wins Cobb and Gwinnett, though very narrowly.

If a Democrat wins the governor's race in GA in the next decade, this is what I think a victory would look like.

[old timey villain]

You really think the Republicans will dominate Georgia for as long and as forcefully as the Democrats did? I don't. The Democratic party only controlled the state like it did because African Americans weren't able to vote and white voters were almost uniformally rural, evangelical and conservative.

A lot of that still exsist in the state, but our minority population is much larger and much more enfranchised, and growth in the state has brought in all types of people- liberal, moderate and conservative.

The state GOP will probably control the legislature for the foreseeable future, but I don't see how they can hold on to the Governorship for more than one or two more cycles. As soon as the Democrats build up a decent bench I think they'll have a good shot.

[old timey villain]

If 53-43 is considered unexpectedly close, that pretty much answers this question.

considering that Perdue won by 20 points in 2006, a very good year for Democrats, I'd say that was unexpectedly close.

I think Deal will be reelected in 2014, but I have a hunch that 2018 could be competitive.

As someone said, Georgia is not nearly as solidly Republican as people think it is, and it's becoming more competitive by the day. It'll just take time for the voters to tire of the GOP and the democrats here to get their s**t together.

[old timey villain]

Even with shifting demographics, I still do not see the Democrats winning the governor's seat within he next 20 years. Such a Democrat would have to be centre to center right in order to appeal to suburbans (I.e. Gwinnett County) and rural voters.

I never thought Barnes had a chance. Not after the whole flag fiasco a few years back. There is no other viable Democrat, at least at the moment, who could win. Maybe John Barrow, but none that I could see.

I guarantee you a Democrat with win the Governor's race in less than 20 years. Your prediction is wishful thinking at best. And yes, the Democrat would probably be more conservative than national Democrats, but it's foolish to think that the GOP will have a 30 year winning streak. That was probable 50 years ago, when white Georgia were overehemingly Democratic and Blacks couldn't vote, but the state is much different now.