2016

[Farage]

Who will win the Dem Primaries if the candidates are:
- Andrew Cuomo
- Elizabeth Warren
- Brian Schweitzer
- Mark Warner
- Martin O'Malley

Who will win the GOP Primaries if the candidates are:
- Chris Christie
- Marco Rubio
- John Huntsman
- Rand Paul
- Allen West

And finally, who will win the General Elections in this scenario?

Discuss with maps

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

Rubio beats Cuomo.

Too lazy to make a map.

[IndyTexas]

Democrats: Andrew Cuomo
- Warren develops a strong but narrow activist following and her campaign fizzles out early, making her the less-wacky Democratic 2016 version of Michele Bachmann
- Schweitzer runs as a moderate vaguely libertarian-ish Western Democrat; he wins states like Colorado, Utah and Oklahoma, but isn't able to perform as well in bigger states with more delegates
- Warner runs as a pragmatic, problem-solving Jon Huntsman type; he wins New Hampshire by rallying independent voters but other than that he doesn't appeal to the Democratic base and the conservative white Democrats go with Schweitzer
- O'Malley runs as a Hillary Clinton-type candidate, employing an economically populist platform and moving to the center on issues like gun control to do well in the Rust Belt and Appalachia; his electoral experience in Maryland allows him to do well among black voters and carry most of the Deep South as a result
- Cuomo goes into the race favored to win; he appeals to northeastern voters, urban voters and also wins the Hispanic vote

Jon Huntsman mounts a widely publicized independent campaign for Mayor of New York City in 2013 and wins. He endorses Andrew Cuomo during the 2016 primaries and is ultimately selected as his running mate, resulting in a kinda-sorta-bi-partisan Cuomo/Huntsman ticket. Huntsman resigns from the mayor's office during the summer of 2016 to campaign full time, and changes his voter registration to Utah so that they will be able to receive New York's electoral votes.

[Senator Snowstalker]

I don't see Huntsman blatantly carpetbagging.

[Chris B]

Cuomo would be the frontrunner for the Dems but I think there would be an opening for a more progressive alternative to emerge like Schweitzer, Warren, or O'Malley.

The GOP would be a toss-up between Christie and Rubio.

[Clinton1996]

Democrats
Schweitzer surprises many by winning Iowa over Warner by camping out there, much like Santorum in 2012. But Cuomo comes back with an overwhelming win in New Hampshire over O'Malley. O'Malley takes South Carolina narrowly over Cuomo. Warren drops out and endorses O'Malley after South Carolina claiming he's a "true progressive". Warner endorses Schweitzer hoping for the veep spot. But the Clinton's make a surprise endorsement of Cuomo and gives him a bump. It goes back and forth between the three with Schweitzer taking the Midwest and Great Plains, O'Malley taking the Deep South and Rust Belt, and Cuomo taking the North East, Pacific West, and splitting the New South with O'Malley. I think Schweitzer endorses Cuomo so he can clinch it and is chosen as Veep.

Cuomo Schweitzer O'Malley
Republicans
I thin Jon Huntsman leaves the GOP before 2016 (listen to him lately, he's not even going to the convention).
I think AllenWest fizzles out before January and drops out in favor of Rubio. Rand Paul takes Iowa narrowly beating out Rubio. Christie easily takes New Hampshire. In South Carolina Rubio takes the win with Christie in a close second. Rubio of course takes Florida and with the momentum takes Nevada. Christie eventually drops out in favor of Rubio after Super Tuesday, Rand Paul stays in and racks up a few delegates in caucuses.

Rubio Christie Paul

General
Cuomo and Rubio battle it out till the end but I think Cuomo narrowly takes it, doing well in the Rust Belt, takes Montana, and in the West, and taking Virginia. Rubio does great in the South and better than Romney with Hispanics, but not enough to stop Cuomo's south western sweep.

Cuomo 317
Rubio 221

[aobduser]

no map.

[Vosem]

For the Democratic primaries, Andrew Cuomo and Mark Warner are favorites in initial polling. Schweitzer manages to win Iowa comfortably, with Warner in second, but Warren wins NH, with Cuomo second. Schweitzer pulls out narrow wins in South Carolina (against Warner) and Florida (against Cuomo), before winning easily in Nevada. At some point Warren makes a Santorum-esque comeback and the race becomes Schweitzer vs. Warren, but Schweitzer was the frontrunner after FL and manages to get the nomination. Maybe Cuomo as Veep.

For the Republicans, Huntsman is a nonfactor. West may do well in early polling but ultimately is also a nonfactor, leaving Christie, Rubio, and Paul as the 'serious' candidates. Christie would probably try to lock up NH, leaving Iowa as being a race of Rubio vs. Paul. If Rubio wins, he probably uses the momentum to carry SC and FL and then becomes the frontrunner; if Paul wins, the race gets scrambled but ultimately Christie wins. Not sure about Veep, but it would have to be someone who has a 'nice' persona to balance Christie (I just thought of Angela Merkel before I remembered she's in Germany) -- Susana Martinez might be a good pick if she wants it.

Christie against Schweitzer would be a really fun race considering they both have a penchant for saying what they perceive to be the truth right to people's faces. It would be very different than the carefully-calculated Romney against Obama. After eight years of Obama (I'm assuming), Christie would probably win, but it would be close -- like this:



Christie/Martinez 288
Schweitzer/Cuomo 250

PA is the deciding state.

[Clinton1996]

For the Democratic primaries, Andrew Cuomo and Mark Warner are favorites in initial polling. Schweitzer manages to win Iowa comfortably, with Warner in second, but Warren wins NH, with Cuomo second. Schweitzer pulls out narrow wins in South Carolina (against Warner) and Florida (against Cuomo), before winning easily in Nevada. At some point Warren makes a Santorum-esque comeback and the race becomes Schweitzer vs. Warren, but Schweitzer was the frontrunner after FL and manages to get the nomination. Maybe Cuomo as Veep.

For the Republicans, Huntsman is a nonfactor. West may do well in early polling but ultimately is also a nonfactor, leaving Christie, Rubio, and Paul as the 'serious' candidates. Christie would probably try to lock up NH, leaving Iowa as being a race of Rubio vs. Paul. If Rubio wins, he probably uses the momentum to carry SC and FL and then becomes the frontrunner; if Paul wins, the race gets scrambled but ultimately Christie wins. Not sure about Veep, but it would have to be someone who has a 'nice' persona to balance Christie (I just thought of Angela Merkel before I remembered she's in Germany) -- Susana Martinez might be a good pick if she wants it.

Christie against Schweitzer would be a really fun race considering they both have a penchant for saying what they perceive to be the truth right to people's faces. It would be very different than the carefully-calculated Romney against Obama. After eight years of Obama (I'm assuming), Christie would probably win, but it would be close -- like this:



Christie/Martinez 288
Schweitzer/Cuomo 250

PA is the deciding state.

Against a northeastern moderate and without a southerner in the ticket, I think Schweitzer would have a good shot at Missouri, North Carolina, and Georgia and would probably take them.