AL: Capital Survey Research Center: Romney up 15 in Alabama

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Alabama President by Capital Survey Research Center on 2012-06-30

Summary: D: 36%, R: 51%, I: 0%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Looks OK.

Their July 1, 2008 poll was McCain+13:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=1

So, if we assume that Obama is ahead by 3-5 nationally, then a Alabama poll with R+15 fits in well.

[mondale84]

Would be LOL-worthy if Obama broke 40...unlikely, but would be hilarious

[Tender Branson]

Would be LOL-worthy if Obama broke 40...unlikely, but would be hilarious

Some (or many ?) southern states could actually trend towards Obama this year, while he could drop off in heavily Democratic states like MA, RI, CT, MI etc.

[pbrower2a]

Reversion to the mean? Southern white voters may be discovering that President Obama isn't as bad as they thought that he would be.

A 15% margin in Alabama would be closer to the 2000 defeat of Al Gore in Alabama instead of the 2004 defeat of John Kerry in Alabama.  

[morgieb]

Better than 2008, which is a plus.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Not surprising. McCain, as a Scots-Irish veteran, was able to contrast the urban black Harvard-educated Obama and improve upon Bush in parts of the South. With the Republican John Kerry now the nominee, there will be a drop in turnout and possibly a mild swing to Obama in several Southern states. Meanwhile, Romney will make huge gains in parts of the Mountain West (20 point shift in Utah? Maybe.) and more modest gains in the Northeast. Still, I think Romney leads by slightly more than 15.

[President von Cat]

Lean Obama

[Tender Branson]

Lean Obama

Definitely. In Banditworld.

[Wisconsin+17]

Kenobitown has AL +1/+2 for the O.

[old timey villain]

Reversion to the mean? Southern white voters may be discovering that President Obama isn't as bad as they thought that he would be.

A 15% margin in Alabama would be closer to the 2000 defeat of Al Gore in Alabama instead of the 2004 defeat of John Kerry in Alabama.  

Pbrower, I admire your optimism, but I guarantee you that's not happening.

[mondale84]

Reversion to the mean? Southern white voters may be discovering that President Obama isn't as bad as they thought that he would be.

A 15% margin in Alabama would be closer to the 2000 defeat of Al Gore in Alabama instead of the 2004 defeat of John Kerry in Alabama.  

Pbrower, I admire your optimism, but I guarantee you that's not happening.

They're probably afraid Obama is going to open concentration camps for white people in his second term. 

[old timey villain]

Reversion to the mean? Southern white voters may be discovering that President Obama isn't as bad as they thought that he would be.

A 15% margin in Alabama would be closer to the 2000 defeat of Al Gore in Alabama instead of the 2004 defeat of John Kerry in Alabama.  

Pbrower, I admire your optimism, but I guarantee you that's not happening.

They're probably afraid Obama is going to open concentration camps for white people in his second term. 

Some people down here think his entire first term has been one giant concentration camp for white people.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Actually the folks who have really been screwed by the O are the black folks.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Actually the folks who have really been screwed by the O are the black folks.

Master Barack is a cruel, mean man.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, this is a lot of comments for a not that exciting poll.

[pbrower2a]

This source identifies the poll is initiated by the school teachers' lobbying group in Alabama.

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2012/06/poll_mitt_romney_leads_preside.html

It could easily underestimate the strength of the GOP in Alabama. Of course, President Obama is not going to win Alabama and won't be close.

[Ebowed]

It could easily underestimate the strength of the GOP in Alabama.

Well yeah, it's not like Obama is going to do much better than the 36% he's already getting here.

[pbrower2a]

The only possible gain for President Obama results from his effective and swift response to some tornadoes in Alabama for which the Governor had praise.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The only possible gain for President Obama results from his effective and swift response to some tornadoes in Alabama for which the Governor had praise.

Obama could come flying in to personally rescue the Governor, his family, and their dog from a tornado that had scooped them up, revealing himself as the last son of Krypton in the process, and since the Governor is a Republican his only comment would be to say, "See! We were right about him not being a natural-born citizen after all!"

[Niemeyerite]

What a jerk you are (or seem to be, I wish you are a parody).

[mondale84]

LOL

[pbrower2a]

The Kenyan isn't winning more than 34% of the legitimate vote. If he wins more, it will be fraud.

What do you mean by 'the legitimate vote'?

[Smid]

Reversion to the mean? Southern white voters may be discovering that President Obama isn't as bad as they thought that he would be.

A 15% margin in Alabama would be closer to the 2000 defeat of Al Gore in Alabama instead of the 2004 defeat of John Kerry in Alabama.  

More likely those 13% undecideds are weighing up who they dislike more: Mormons or a dark-skinned Democrats.

[tmthforu94]

Reversion to the mean? Southern white voters may be discovering that President Obama isn't as bad as they thought that he would be.

A 15% margin in Alabama would be closer to the 2000 defeat of Al Gore in Alabama instead of the 2004 defeat of John Kerry in Alabama.  

More likely those 13% undecideds are weighing up who they dislike more: Mormons or a dark-skinned Democrats.

Anyone wanna take a bet on which one just about all of that 13% will vote for?

My guess: it rhymes with foreman...