Why are Republicans so certain of a Romney win?

[Harry]

Admittedly, I am predicting an Obama win, but I would not call it certain.  I completely acknowledge Romney has a 1-in-3 shot, or maybe a little better, of winning.  I think most Democrats on this forum are the same way.  I don't really see any Democrats calling it a certainty, despite Obama leading in enough polls to make him a winner. (538 currently has him at at 67.8% chance.)

However, almost every Republican who posts on this board is 100% sure that Obama is going to lose, ignoring the hard evidence for the idea that America will be so enraged by Obamacare that that will be their only issue.  And they might be right, but why are they so certain?

Is this forum a bad sample of the country?  I think not.  I think most Republicans nationwide have already declared Romney the winner in their minds.  Why?

[WhyteRain]

However, almost every Republican who posts on this board is 100% sure that Obama is going to lose, ignoring the hard evidence for the idea that America will be so enraged by Obamacare that that will be their only issue.  And they might be right, but why are they so certain?

I'm a former Democrat (bluedog variety) and now a registered Independent.  I think the rationale for seeing Obama lose badly is really simple:

The results of the 2010 election.

What's changed since then?

[Torie]

However, almost every Republican who posts on this board is 100% sure that Obama is going to lose,

You must read different posts than I do.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

I disagree that most Republicans are certain of a Romney win.

I believe that most Republicans, including myself, believe that Romney has a good chance, given the uncertain economy and Obama's lack of real leadership on that front, and that much of the swing and independent vote will rally around Romney over their opposition to the Obama healtcare policy.

But to say that Republicans, including Republicans on this forum, are certain of a Romney win is simply not accurate.

In fact, I would say that most Republicans, including myself, give Romney a 50/50 chance at this point.

[Jayhawker]

This seems ironic to me, as I see a lot of Democrats on here who firmly believe Obama will win, and many of the Republicans I know certainly have their doubts. Even I don't think its certain.

[mondale84]

They aren't certain, those who pretend they are are just trolling.

[pepper11]

However, almost every Republican who posts on this board is 100% sure that Obama is going to lose,

You must read different posts than I do.

[Cobbler]

I actually think there is a greater chance that Obama wins. Romney will make it close, and could win, but I feel that Obama has an advantage.

[WhyteRain]

OBAMA'S APPROVAL RATING MUCH WORSE THAN IT LOOKS

Proving once again that he is one of the nation’s most astute political analysts, the Washington Examiner's Michael Barone makes clear that President Barack Obama may be in more political trouble than he or many of his allies are prepared to publicly admit.

An alumnus of U.S. News & World Report, Barone deconstructs the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and he shows that Obama’s negative 45 percent-48 percent job approval figures are deceptive and that the president is far weaker politically than the numbers suggest.
 
The poll, which admittedly is a snapshot of public opinion, shows the president has a 91 percent approval rating among black voters. “A little back of the envelope arithmetic,” Barone writes, “suggest that Obama’s job rating among the 88 percent or 89 percent of non-black respondents is about 39 percent positive and 54 percent negative.”

This article was written June 29, 2010.  http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/peter-roff/2010/06/29/Obamas-Approval-Rating-Much-Worse-Than-It-Looks

Obama's current approval rating:  47.9% (RCP average).

Four months later, a crimson tide election.

Four months from now, what's to change that?

[CathKhan]

However, almost every Republican who posts on this board is 100% sure that Obama is going to lose,

You must read different posts than I do.

Indeed.

[Cobbler]

Honestly, I don't think we can say Obama is going to lose because of 2010. Presidents lose during midterms all the time and still can get reelected. Otherwise, Clinton would've been a one termer.

[BritishDixie]

I'm a right winger, and yet I have an uncomfortable gut feeling that Obama will win.

[WhyteRain]

Honestly, I don't think we can say Obama is going to lose because of 2010. Presidents lose during midterms all the time and still can get reelected. Otherwise, Clinton would've been a one termer.

By the Fall of 1996, Clinton had all but changed his party affiliation.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm definitely not certain of a Romney win. For now I'd say Obama has a slight edge but if by fall there start to be negative job losses then I'd say advantage Romney.

[WhyteRain]

I'm a right winger, and yet I have an uncomfortable gut feeling that Obama will win.

I rate that as only slightly more likely than Nancy Pelosi becoming the next House Speaker.

[Clinton1996]

OBAMA'S APPROVAL RATING MUCH WORSE THAN IT LOOKS

Proving once again that he is one of the nation’s most astute political analysts, the Washington Examiner's Michael Barone makes clear that President Barack Obama may be in more political trouble than he or many of his allies are prepared to publicly admit.

An alumnus of U.S. News & World Report, Barone deconstructs the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and he shows that Obama’s negative 45 percent-48 percent job approval figures are deceptive and that the president is far weaker politically than the numbers suggest.
 
The poll, which admittedly is a snapshot of public opinion, shows the president has a 91 percent approval rating among black voters. “A little back of the envelope arithmetic,” Barone writes, “suggest that Obama’s job rating among the 88 percent or 89 percent of non-black respondents is about 39 percent positive and 54 percent negative.”

This article was written June 29, 2010.

Obama's current approval rating:  47.9% (RCP average).

Four months later, a crimson tide election.

Four months from now, what's to change that?

The fact that only old and angry white voters turned out in the Midterms is what's to change that. According to recent polling, the President is re-assembling his 2008 coalition of young, black, Hispanic, and college voters and they are putting him ahead. Even after a GOD AWFUL June, he is still ahead by an average of 4 points. Just imagine if the economy was like it was at the beginning of the year.

[asexual trans victimologist]

WhyteRain's grasp of the concept of time might actually be worse than krazen's.

[True Federalist]

OBAMA'S APPROVAL RATING MUCH WORSE THAN IT LOOKS

Proving once again that he is one of the nation’s most astute political analysts, the Washington Examiner's Michael Barone makes clear that President Barack Obama may be in more political trouble than he or many of his allies are prepared to publicly admit.

An alumnus of U.S. News & World Report, Barone deconstructs the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and he shows that Obama’s negative 45 percent-48 percent job approval figures are deceptive and that the president is far weaker politically than the numbers suggest.
 
The poll, which admittedly is a snapshot of public opinion, shows the president has a 91 percent approval rating among black voters. “A little back of the envelope arithmetic,” Barone writes, “suggest that Obama’s job rating among the 88 percent or 89 percent of non-black respondents is about 39 percent positive and 54 percent negative.”

This article was written June 29, 2010.  http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/peter-roff/2010/06/29/Obamas-Approval-Rating-Much-Worse-Than-It-Looks

Obama's current approval rating:  47.9% (RCP average).

Four months later, a crimson tide election.

Four months from now, what's to change that?

Not really a change, just the simple fact that Romney's approvals have generally been considerably lower than Obama's.  Over at RCP, their average of Obama's approvals is currently 51.5 to 44.4 (+7.1) while Romney's is 43.6 to 43.9 (-0.3).

Obama's approval advantage over Romney isn't as high among the polls that just use likely voters. so it isn't all bleak for Romney.  But it is likely to be a bleak campaign season for people in the swing states.  Romney will likely go heavily negative to keep turnout low.  A high turnout election does not favor Mitt.

[krazen1211]

OBAMA'S APPROVAL RATING MUCH WORSE THAN IT LOOKS

Proving once again that he is one of the nation’s most astute political analysts, the Washington Examiner's Michael Barone makes clear that President Barack Obama may be in more political trouble than he or many of his allies are prepared to publicly admit.

An alumnus of U.S. News & World Report, Barone deconstructs the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and he shows that Obama’s negative 45 percent-48 percent job approval figures are deceptive and that the president is far weaker politically than the numbers suggest.
 
The poll, which admittedly is a snapshot of public opinion, shows the president has a 91 percent approval rating among black voters. “A little back of the envelope arithmetic,” Barone writes, “suggest that Obama’s job rating among the 88 percent or 89 percent of non-black respondents is about 39 percent positive and 54 percent negative.”

This article was written June 29, 2010.

Obama's current approval rating:  47.9% (RCP average).

Four months later, a crimson tide election.

Four months from now, what's to change that?

The fact that only old and angry white voters turned out in the Midterms is what's to change that. According to recent polling, the President is re-assembling his 2008 coalition of young, black, Hispanic, and college voters and they are putting him ahead. Even after a GOD AWFUL June, he is still ahead by an average of 4 points. Just imagine if the economy was like it was at the beginning of the year.

That's not a fact at all. For instance, public sector union whites like those in Dane County are and were very high turnout voters.

I think your grasp of reality might be less than Nathan's.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Admittedly, I am predicting an Obama win, but I would not call it certain.  I completely acknowledge Romney has a 1-in-3 shot, or maybe a little better, of winning.  I think most Democrats on this forum are the same way.  I don't really see any Democrats calling it a certainty, despite Obama leading in enough polls to make him a winner. (538 currently has him at at 67.8% chance.)

However, almost every Republican who posts on this board is 100% sure that Obama is going to lose, ignoring the hard evidence for the idea that America will be so enraged by Obamacare that that will be their only issue.  And they might be right, but why are they so certain?

Is this forum a bad sample of the country?  I think not.  I think most Republicans nationwide have already declared Romney the winner in their minds.  Why?

I'm a Republican, but I actually think Obama will win.

[cope1989]

I'm definitely not certain of a Romney win. For now I'd say Obama has a slight edge but if by fall there start to be negative job losses then I'd say advantage Romney.

again, we can only hope that we start to lose jobs! Then the election is certainly Romney's!

Seriously, are most Republicans hoping for job losses again just so Romney can win? I'd like to think people are better than that.

[krazen1211]

I'm definitely not certain of a Romney win. For now I'd say Obama has a slight edge but if by fall there start to be negative job losses then I'd say advantage Romney.

again, we can only hope that we start to lose jobs! Then the election is certainly Romney's!

Seriously, are most Republicans hoping for job losses again just so Romney can win? I'd like to think people are better than that.

Job losses in the bloated public sector are essential to lower taxes on the American people.

[WhyteRain]

WhyteRain's grasp of the concept of time might actually be worse than krazen's.

How so?

[Kevin]

This seems ironic to me, as I see a lot of Democrats on here who firmly believe Obama will win, and many of the Republicans I know certainly have their doubts. Even I don't think its certain.

[Invisible Obama]

Because they think they can defeat the President with a lot of negative attacks and believe that most voters share their very harsh disapproval of the President.

Democrats learned that lesson in 2004.