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Author Topic: Do you think the Health Care Act is as unpopular in 2012 as in 2010 elections?  (Read 1093 times)
milhouse24
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« on: June 30, 2012, 11:23:07 pm »
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The 2010 elections was a tide of anti-Obama and anti-Health Care activists coming out for a landslide defeat of Democrats everywhere. 

The Supreme Court ruling has approved Health Care and made it a big issue in the 2012 elections. 

Are Tea Party activists and anti-Health Care activists still strong enough to beat Obama and the Democrats a second time? 

Are there still an overwhelming majority of anti-Obama swing voters in the 2012?

Or will swing voters just accept defeat with the Supreme Court ruling. 
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« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2012, 11:45:19 pm »
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Honestly? No.

Not that it still isn't politically potent.

People make a HUGE mistake to assume that a Midterm political dynamic will exist in the next presidential race, 1982 didn't impact 1984, 1994 didn't impact 1996... a lot of that comes down to demographics. There was a sharp drop in minority and youth involvement between 2008 and 10, which is normal for midterms.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2012, 11:52:16 pm »
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Honestly? No.

Not that it still isn't politically potent.

People make a HUGE mistake to assume that a Midterm political dynamic will exist in the next presidential race, 1982 didn't impact 1984, 1994 didn't impact 1996... a lot of that comes down to demographics. There was a sharp drop in minority and youth involvement between 2008 and 10, which is normal for midterms.

But in 2012, there are many black voters that oppose universal marriage.  Also, many young voters are busy getting high than remembering about "HOPE AND CHANGE" like in 2008.  There is no Iraq War 'draft' for college students to fear getting drawn into. 

If Obama is counting on the Youth Vote in 2012, he's going to lose big.  That's my prediction at least.
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2012, 12:16:09 am »
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Honestly? No.

Not that it still isn't politically potent.

People make a HUGE mistake to assume that a Midterm political dynamic will exist in the next presidential race, 1982 didn't impact 1984, 1994 didn't impact 1996... a lot of that comes down to demographics. There was a sharp drop in minority and youth involvement between 2008 and 10, which is normal for midterms.

But in 2012, there are many black voters that oppose universal marriage.  Also, many young voters are busy getting high than remembering about "HOPE AND CHANGE" like in 2008.  There is no Iraq War 'draft' for college students to fear getting drawn into. 

If Obama is counting on the Youth Vote in 2012, he's going to lose big.  That's my prediction at least.
There is war on women... That's the Youth vote in 2012.
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Sbane
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2012, 01:59:44 am »
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The health care law wasn't even as unpopular as Democrats in general in 2012. An election decided on just the health care law in 2010 would have led to a tie. People are way overestimating the extent of the unpopularity of the health care law. And many parts are liked even by those opposed to the law. If I was a GOP advisor, I would tell them to focus on the economy rather than healthcare. Unless the economy unexpectedly starts booming in which case it's game over for the Republicans anyway.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2012, 02:02:30 am by Senator Sbane »Logged
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« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2012, 02:15:32 am »
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Honestly? No.

Not that it still isn't politically potent.

People make a HUGE mistake to assume that a Midterm political dynamic will exist in the next presidential race, 1982 didn't impact 1984, 1994 didn't impact 1996... a lot of that comes down to demographics. There was a sharp drop in minority and youth involvement between 2008 and 10, which is normal for midterms.

But in 2012, there are many black voters that oppose universal marriage.  Also, many young voters are busy getting high than remembering about "HOPE AND CHANGE" like in 2008.  There is no Iraq War 'draft' for college students to fear getting drawn into. 

If Obama is counting on the Youth Vote in 2012, he's going to lose big.  That's my prediction at least.

I don't think Obama's stance on gay marriage will hurt his prospects much with black voters.

PPP polled NC right after Amendment 1 passed and found this:

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55% of African-Americans believe same-sex couples should either be allowed to marry or form civil unions, up 11 points from the last statewide same-sex marriage poll, conducted May 6. In the pre-primary poll, a majority (51%) of African-Americans said there should be no legal recognition of gay couples in North Carolina, but that number has dropped to 39%.

That was also after Obama announced his stance on gay marriage.
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« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2012, 03:17:38 am »
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2010 was not a matter of 'anti-Obama swing voters'. I don't think you understand what a swing voter is or how midterm elections work.
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« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2012, 03:26:54 am »
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Honestly? No.

Not that it still isn't politically potent.

People make a HUGE mistake to assume that a Midterm political dynamic will exist in the next presidential race, 1982 didn't impact 1984, 1994 didn't impact 1996... a lot of that comes down to demographics. There was a sharp drop in minority and youth involvement between 2008 and 10, which is normal for midterms.

But in 2012, there are many black voters that oppose universal marriage.  Also, many young voters are busy getting high than remembering about "HOPE AND CHANGE" like in 2008.  There is no Iraq War 'draft' for college students to fear getting drawn into. 

If Obama is counting on the Youth Vote in 2012, he's going to lose big.  That's my prediction at least.

Obama doesn't need the same youth turnout to win, he just needs it to return to same level it normally is for presidential elections. But I think the turnout will be above normal youth turnout... but below 2008.

The GOP positions on immigration and women's rights will hurt them far more than Obama's position on gay marriage will hurt him.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2012, 03:29:23 am by President Polnut »Logged


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« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2012, 08:27:53 am »
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No, absolutely not.

I think it's even more unpopular.

Do I think it will hurt Obama in the election? No.

This question is about as pertinent as asking if Mitt serving cheezy grits will help him win the south.
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« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2012, 08:45:58 am »
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No, it really won't be.

Midterm elections are really more about getting the party faithful out to the polls than it is about winning over swing voters. In 2010, Republicans were more pissed over the bill than Democrats were happy about it, so they won the turnout battle.

People are fired up now after the ruling, but in a few weeks most people will move on and the issue will be the economy once again.
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« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2012, 08:46:54 am »
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It's even more unpopular.
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« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2012, 08:48:24 am »
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lol no.

It may still have an impact but it won't be arguably the biggest factor of the election. Turnout was very conservative in 2010, too.
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« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2012, 08:48:57 am »
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The 2010 elections was a tide of anti-Obama and anti-Health Care activists coming out for a landslide defeat of Democrats everywhere. 

The Supreme Court ruling has approved Health Care and made it a big issue in the 2012 elections. 

Wrong. It was complacency among Obama voters in 2010 who failed to recognize how important Congress is.   The Hard Right was as fervent as ever, went out to vote, and with similar numbers that they voted in 2008 in a shrunken electorate and obediently voted in Hard Right pols.  

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Are Tea Party activists and anti-Health Care activists still strong enough to beat Obama and the Democrats a second time? 

They are strong enough to give another smashing defeat to liberal Democrats and probably even defeat President Obama, but only if the electorate is like it was in 2010.  But if the electorate appears in numbers similar to those of 2008 President Obama wins, Democrats hold onto the Senate, and regain the House. Remember -- the Tea Party types in Congress have been terribly ineffective despite their loud noise. They have achieved nothing except to stall a liberal agenda for two years.

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Are there still an overwhelming majority of anti-Obama swing voters in the 2012?

Or will swing voters just accept defeat with the Supreme Court ruling. 

There are a few more such voters than there are vegetarian alligators. Any swing of voters from 2010 to 2012 will be either the return of Obama voters to the electorate in 2012 or the addition of new voters who did not vote in 2008 or 2010.

President Obama bet far more than was wise on the Affordable Care Act at least for 2010, and such will show in the US Senate until 2016. He can now present it as a permanent achievement and no longer as something in Constitutional limbo.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2012, 04:53:21 pm »
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Just keep telling yourself that the mysterious "democratic base" was complacent and not excited for the 2010 elections. 

Now why would they be "not excited" about an election.  Maybe its because they actually disagree with the HC mandate.  Maybe that is why they sat home on the couch instead of voting.  Or maybe that is why some democrats voted for republicans because they were pissed off at Obama and the Congress. 

You answered your own question, but you apparently failed to see the rational logic behind your answer. 

Now you have the simple question of will the "democratic base" be "excited" to support Obama and democrats in 2012?  With a terrible economy and the HC issue, I am extremely doubtful, but you are free to see the world with rose-colored glasses.
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« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2012, 07:05:34 pm »
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It's not even as unpopular as it was 4 days ago.  10 point swing toward approval since it was upheld.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/poll-support-for-obamacare-up-after-supreme-court
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« Reply #15 on: July 01, 2012, 07:52:36 pm »
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Just keep telling yourself that the mysterious "democratic base" was complacent and not excited for the 2010 elections. 

Now why would they be "not excited" about an election.  Maybe its because they actually disagree with the HC mandate.  Maybe that is why they sat home on the couch instead of voting.  Or maybe that is why some democrats voted for republicans because they were pissed off at Obama and the Congress. 

You answered your own question, but you apparently failed to see the rational logic behind your answer. 

Now you have the simple question of will the "democratic base" be "excited" to support Obama and democrats in 2012?  With a terrible economy and the HC issue, I am extremely doubtful, but you are free to see the world with rose-colored glasses.

OK -- you win! Americans want the public sector gutted or at least sold cheaply to profiteering monopolists, lower pay on the same job with no increase in employment, higher taxes on themselves so that tycoons and executives might create more jobs, destruction of liberal gains since the Progressive Era (like the outlawry of mislabeled patent medicines that promised to cure everything but offered only alcohol and opiates), wars for profit... and of course they have decided that to get right with God they had better go Right on politics and economics. Most Americans now believe that amoral evolution is bunk and that Godly creationism is science. Republicans have shown themselves the best allies of Hispanics. The Tea Party is now widely recognized for its intellectual and moral acumen.

...Now for the reality: Congress has never been held in such mass disdain since at least 1948, and Republicans are held much more culpable than Democrats. Homosexual rights are gaining. The economy is better than it was in 2009 without a corrupt boom that would implode if it were tried.     

There was practically no shift of voters. Voting usually goes down during a midterm unless people are thoroughly unsatisfied with the incumbent and his Party (extreme examples: 1930 and 2006). The same sort of electorate that America had in 2010 sweeps President Obama and the bare Democratic majority n the Senate into oblivion. Many of the voters of 2008 stayed home out of complacency. That is unlikely to be repeated.  Republicans who won as stealth candidates and since showed that they are the same old stuff of the Bush II Administration in their voting habits demonstrate why America un-elected them in 2006 and 2008.

Maybe President Obama went too far and too fast for a near-majority of American tastes. Republicans could have gone to a more moderate agenda as a counterweight to one of the most active Congresses in passing legislation in years.  Rescission of everything is appropriate only after the overthrow of an extremist regime. 

Meanwhile, President Obama has done about everything that ensures re-election -- namely, achieving his promises to his supporters, avoiding scandals, having successes in foreign policy, and showing competent stewardship of the economy. General Motors is alive and Osama bin Laden is dead. 

There won't be much polling in the next week, so we aren't going to see much in statewide polling.     
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milhouse24
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« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2012, 11:09:20 pm »
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I see strong comparisons to 2006 and 2008.

In 2006, many Americans became anti-Bush and galvanized behind the anti-War movement to elect Democrats, with the momentum continuing with Obama in 2008.

Now, in 2010, many Americans became anti-Health Care and swept Democrats out of office.  It seems that in 2012, with the Health Care ruling relatively near the election only a couple months away, Americans will have enough time to mobilize in favor of Romney. 

For me, that just seems to be the direction that things are trending.  The anti-HC sentiment didn't just go away because of the Supreme Court.  The tea partiers are the new Code Pinkers.  Where is Cindy now?  Where are Obama's youth volunteers?  They are no where, and they will be no where in November.  Its because Obama supporters don't care anymore. 
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« Reply #17 on: July 02, 2012, 09:51:38 am »
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It's not even as unpopular as it was 4 days ago.  10 point swing toward approval since it was upheld.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/poll-support-for-obamacare-up-after-supreme-court

The same thing happened in the Spring of 2010.  The "approval" polls for ObamaCare showed a few points of bounce for a few weeks after it was enacted.  Apparently there really are people who get psychologically invested on being on the "winning side".  
« Last Edit: July 02, 2012, 09:53:54 am by WhyteRain »Logged
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« Reply #18 on: July 02, 2012, 10:55:38 am »
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It will be a neutralizing issue as both candidates have staked out similar issues on Obamneycare. The economy will be much more of a factor in the fall campaign.  And people saw the way the way the GOP has acted when coming to congress as opposed to 2010 block, obstruct, and delay.  Obama will get through this election.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #19 on: July 02, 2012, 11:26:57 am »
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It will be a neutralizing issue as both candidates have staked out similar issues on Obamneycare. The economy will be much more of a factor in the fall campaign.  And people saw the way the way the GOP has acted when coming to congress as opposed to 2010 block, obstruct, and delay.  Obama will get through this election.

But do you think the Economy will get worse Because of Health Care?  Many companies don't like or don't know how high the Health Care Taxes/Fines will be.  This will force companies to keep freezing their hiring and freezing their expansion plans, until the taxes or fines are implemented.  Many companies are going to try to keep their business at 49 employees, how depressing is that? 

So to say that the Economy and Health Care repercussions are separate is very very ignorant.
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« Reply #20 on: July 02, 2012, 12:42:01 pm »
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It will be a neutralizing issue as both candidates have staked out similar issues on Obamneycare. The economy will be much more of a factor in the fall campaign.  And people saw the way the way the GOP has acted when coming to congress as opposed to 2010 block, obstruct, and delay.  Obama will get through this election.
I'm with you the Tea Party botched the Debt Ceiling Debate but to say block, obstruct, and delay? Harry Reid is the one blocking 20 job bills not the Tea Party. Lets see Pay Roll Tax, Patent Reform, and jobs bill passed. Transportation and Student Loan Bills were passed to. Obama has gotten everything he wanted from the GOP House. I will say Obama has done a good job this year of dictating the debate and keeping the GOP House on its toes though.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2012, 12:43:45 pm by hopper »Logged
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« Reply #21 on: July 02, 2012, 12:45:45 pm »
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Honestly? No.

Not that it still isn't politically potent.

People make a HUGE mistake to assume that a Midterm political dynamic will exist in the next presidential race, 1982 didn't impact 1984, 1994 didn't impact 1996... a lot of that comes down to demographics. There was a sharp drop in minority and youth involvement between 2008 and 10, which is normal for midterms.

But in 2012, there are many black voters that oppose universal marriage.  Also, many young voters are busy getting high than remembering about "HOPE AND CHANGE" like in 2008.  There is no Iraq War 'draft' for college students to fear getting drawn into. 

If Obama is counting on the Youth Vote in 2012, he's going to lose big.  That's my prediction at least.
There is war on women... That's the Youth vote in 2012.
No nobody cares about the Contraception Issue anymore. Thats old.
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hopper
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« Reply #22 on: July 02, 2012, 12:51:19 pm »
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Honestly? No.

Not that it still isn't politically potent.

People make a HUGE mistake to assume that a Midterm political dynamic will exist in the next presidential race, 1982 didn't impact 1984, 1994 didn't impact 1996... a lot of that comes down to demographics. There was a sharp drop in minority and youth involvement between 2008 and 10, which is normal for midterms.

But in 2012, there are many black voters that oppose universal marriage.  Also, many young voters are busy getting high than remembering about "HOPE AND CHANGE" like in 2008.  There is no Iraq War 'draft' for college students to fear getting drawn into. 

If Obama is counting on the Youth Vote in 2012, he's going to lose big.  That's my prediction at least.

Obama doesn't need the same youth turnout to win, he just needs it to return to same level it normally is for presidential elections. But I think the turnout will be above normal youth turnout... but below 2008.

The GOP positions on immigration and women's rights will hurt them far more than Obama's position on gay marriage will hurt him.
Their position on Immigration does hurt the GOP brand. They have little room for error on that issue now thanks to Obama's temporary amnesty of children who were illegally brought here by their parents through no fault of their own.
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« Reply #23 on: July 02, 2012, 01:00:13 pm »
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I will add one thing the Dems lost big in 2010 because they lost middle of the electorate(i.e. swing voter.) Yes the Dems did win moderates(55%) in 2010 but lost Indies by like a 13 point margin. The indies elect you just like did Obama in 2008 and the GOP House in 2010. Keep in mind all moderates are not indies and not all indies are moderates. "Third Way" had a good article on this topic and in explaining the election outcomes of 2006, 2008 vs 2010. Its a good read even if  its a 41 page read.
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« Reply #24 on: July 02, 2012, 01:05:50 pm »
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Honestly? No.

Not that it still isn't politically potent.

People make a HUGE mistake to assume that a Midterm political dynamic will exist in the next presidential race, 1982 didn't impact 1984, 1994 didn't impact 1996... a lot of that comes down to demographics. There was a sharp drop in minority and youth involvement between 2008 and 10, which is normal for midterms.

But in 2012, there are many black voters that oppose universal marriage.  Also, many young voters are busy getting high than remembering about "HOPE AND CHANGE" like in 2008.  There is no Iraq War 'draft' for college students to fear getting drawn into. 

If Obama is counting on the Youth Vote in 2012, he's going to lose big.  That's my prediction at least.

Obama doesn't need the same youth turnout to win, he just needs it to return to same level it normally is for presidential elections. But I think the turnout will be above normal youth turnout... but below 2008.

The GOP positions on immigration and women's rights will hurt them far more than Obama's position on gay marriage will hurt him.
Their position on Immigration does hurt the GOP brand. They have little room for error on that issue now thanks to Obama's temporary amnesty of children who were illegally brought here by their parents through no fault of their own.

Are you kidding me? Americans want their border protected and the squatters kicked out!
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