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Author Topic: Signatures filed to invalidate Maryland Congressional redistricting  (Read 4289 times)
HappyWarrior
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« Reply #50 on: July 12, 2012, 08:48:41 am »
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It's not like Republicans wouldn't have drawn a gerrymander if they had control. Maryland's map isn't nearly as ridiculous as the maps of Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The Maryland map was the worst of the whole cycle.  PA/IL/OH/NC are next I'd say

Republicans wouldn't have drawn a gerrymandered map if we were in control, we don't need to.  Maryland is naturally laid out to the benefit of Republicans.





Why, look what we have here.  Two potential maps for Maryland that are NOT insane

It's actually pretty easy to draw a 5-3 Republican map in Maryland, [un?]interestingly enough.

That's not correct, a 5-3 Republican map in Md is not possible, but a 4-4 one is very possible, and this is so because Maryland is the most polarized state in the union

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'Moving right along to the next thread....

Looks like snotty Miles doesn't like citizen uprising against Democrats' outrageous Maryland congressional map.  This is going to referendum.  We turned in 10k more than needed. 10k will not be invalid

If most Maryland Republicans are like you in demeanor, its easy to see why they're such a minority in state politics.

Your dismissive remark at the petition drive reeked of snobbery.  What can I say?  The Democrats were giddy at the prospect of petitioning Ohio's map.  I'm glad that the OH Repubs modified their map due to public pressures.  I wish MD Dems had done the same

I personally hate that map simply because as a Southern Marylander I don't want my region broken up like that, I'm happy with it as it is.
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Miles
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« Reply #51 on: July 12, 2012, 04:14:47 pm »
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So, the worst case is that the referendum passes and the legislature draws another (probably cleaner) 7-1 map?

Cool, I'm all for that.
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« Reply #52 on: July 13, 2012, 08:09:04 am »
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If they wanted to do an 8-0 map, and they thought one was truly feasible, they would have done so in the first place.

Actually, the reason that they went with the current map was that (for reasons that no one seems able to figure out) Donna Edwards basically threw a fit over the intended maps and called for a map that only went after Roscoe Bartlett (her shenanigans almost caused her to face a serious primary challenge, IIRC).  The legislature decided to go with an 8-1 map targeting Bartlett.  I have seen 8-0 maps on DKE that are cleaner than the current one and don't displace any Democratic incumbents. 
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« Reply #53 on: July 13, 2012, 02:11:14 pm »
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If they wanted to do an 8-0 map, and they thought one was truly feasible, they would have done so in the first place.

Actually, the reason that they went with the current map was that (for reasons that no one seems able to figure out) Donna Edwards basically threw a fit over the intended maps and called for a map that only went after Roscoe Bartlett (her shenanigans almost caused her to face a serious primary challenge, IIRC).  The legislature decided to go with an 8-1 map targeting Bartlett.  I have seen 8-0 maps on DKE that are cleaner than the current one and don't displace any Democratic incumbents. 
So Andy Harris survives because of Donna Edwards getting mad at the intended maps. 
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« Reply #54 on: July 13, 2012, 07:28:57 pm »
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The only reason MD's maps look worse than other gerrymanders is because of the odd physical shape of that state (and incumbent residences). Dems should not compromise unless/until there is a ban on gerrymandering nationwide. Though it may be a moot point, since a remap could probably be done with a similar partisan result.

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Before the current cluster of issues, the last law to be petitioned was Maryland's abortion rights statute. Voters in 1992 overwhelmingly upheld the law.

Can anyone find county results for that?
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« Reply #55 on: July 13, 2012, 10:08:49 pm »
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It's a good thing no actual politicians read DKE redistricting diaries, or these shenanigans might've cost Republicans a seat. I personally used to rather enjoy those, though for some reason after the name change from SSP to DKE they fell off considerably.
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« Reply #56 on: July 13, 2012, 10:11:31 pm »
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It's a good thing no actual politicians read DKE redistricting diaries, or these shenanigans might've cost Republicans a seat. I personally used to rather enjoy those, though for some reason after the name change from SSP to DKE they fell off considerably.

The SSP name sounded a lot cooler Smiley
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« Reply #57 on: July 14, 2012, 06:49:36 am »
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The only reason MD's maps look worse than other gerrymanders is because of the odd physical shape of that state (and incumbent residences). Dems should not compromise unless/until there is a ban on gerrymandering nationwide. Though it may be a moot point, since a remap could probably be done with a similar partisan result.

That is probably unconstitutional.

If that stance had been taken in the states like AZ, CA and the other commission states, gerrymandering would be the rule in all 50 states. The only way to do this is for the people in each state to stand up and demand reform and for the minority party in these states to join that movement.
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« Reply #58 on: July 14, 2012, 07:21:05 am »
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If they wanted to do an 8-0 map, and they thought one was truly feasible, they would have done so in the first place.

Actually, the reason that they went with the current map was that (for reasons that no one seems able to figure out) Donna Edwards basically threw a fit over the intended maps and called for a map that only went after Roscoe Bartlett (her shenanigans almost caused her to face a serious primary challenge, IIRC).  The legislature decided to go with an 8-1 map targeting Bartlett.  I have seen 8-0 maps on DKE that are cleaner than the current one and don't displace any Democratic incumbents. 
So Andy Harris survives because of Donna Edwards getting mad at the intended maps. 
I'm pretty sure this is virtually entirely incorrect, actually. 7-1 with Harris conceded was the plan from the start, Edwards' complaints had little to do with the 1st and 6th districts, and anyways remain very largely unadressed. And the primary challenge was probably in the works before that as well; not entirely sure about that. Edwards is not a member of the machine, you see.
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« Reply #59 on: July 14, 2012, 08:44:18 am »
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If they wanted to do an 8-0 map, and they thought one was truly feasible, they would have done so in the first place.

Actually, the reason that they went with the current map was that (for reasons that no one seems able to figure out) Donna Edwards basically threw a fit over the intended maps and called for a map that only went after Roscoe Bartlett (her shenanigans almost caused her to face a serious primary challenge, IIRC).  The legislature decided to go with an 8-1 map targeting Bartlett.  I have seen 8-0 maps on DKE that are cleaner than the current one and don't displace any Democratic incumbents. 
So Andy Harris survives because of Donna Edwards getting mad at the intended maps. 
I'm pretty sure this is virtually entirely incorrect, actually. 7-1 with Harris conceded was the plan from the start, Edwards' complaints had little to do with the 1st and 6th districts, and anyways remain very largely unadressed. And the primary challenge was probably in the works before that as well; not entirely sure about that. Edwards is not a member of the machine, you see.
 

The original maps discussed were 8-0 maps and 7-1 maps targeting Harris.  Hoyer originally wanted 8-0 and later started pushing for a 7-1 map targeting Andy Harris.  I'm positive about that.  However, you're probably right that Edwards whining about the maps was incidental (looking at the map again, I see that you're right the her complaints were basically ignored).  I'm pretty sure that the primary challenge talk started due to her behavior regarding redistricting (and I'd argue that this is why in the end, it never materialized despite all the pieces seemingly being in place, people don't care about this stuff enough to vote out an incumbent over it).  As I think about it, the more important factor was probably the fact that MD Senate Majority Leader Rob Garagiola decided that his main priority with redistricting was drawing himself a district (the new MD-6).  Ironically, Garagiola would go on to get destroyed the district's primary.  There may be more to the story than that, but the original maps that were discussed were definitely 8-0 maps and 7-1 maps targeting Harris.
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« Reply #60 on: July 14, 2012, 08:54:15 am »
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It must never be forgotten then personal self-interest is often as important as the party machine's interests, and sometimes it is even of greater import. Hence what happens all the time in New York on the Democratic side.
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« Reply #61 on: July 14, 2012, 10:07:39 am »
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If the Pubs manage to hold on to the Bartlett seat, the Dems might throw in the towel in a redraw. Yes, the "if" is a pretty high hurdle I understand. But it is not impossible to overcome.
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« Reply #62 on: July 16, 2012, 08:25:27 am »
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It must never be forgotten then personal self-interest is often as important as the party machine's interests, and sometimes it is even of greater import.
They're also more or less the same thing, or at least closer to each other than they are to the party's voters' or even the national party's interests.
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« Reply #63 on: July 16, 2012, 02:04:45 pm »
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It's not like Republicans wouldn't have drawn a gerrymander if they had control. Maryland's map isn't nearly as ridiculous as the maps of Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The Maryland map was the worst of the whole cycle.  PA/IL/OH/NC are next I'd say

Republicans wouldn't have drawn a gerrymandered map if we were in control, we don't need to.  Maryland is naturally laid out to the benefit of Republicans.





Why, look what we have here.  Two potential maps for Maryland that are NOT insane

It's actually pretty easy to draw a 5-3 Republican map in Maryland, [un?]interestingly enough.

That's not correct, a 5-3 Republican map in Md is not possible, but a 4-4 one is very possible, and this is so because Maryland is the most polarized state in the union

How did I know this was a krazen post?

'Moving right along to the next thread....

Looks like snotty Miles doesn't like citizen uprising against Democrats' outrageous Maryland congressional map.  This is going to referendum.  We turned in 10k more than needed. 10k will not be invalid

If most Maryland Republicans are like you in demeanor, its easy to see why they're such a minority in state politics.

Your dismissive remark at the petition drive reeked of snobbery.  What can I say?  The Democrats were giddy at the prospect of petitioning Ohio's map.  I'm glad that the OH Repubs modified their map due to public pressures.  I wish MD Dems had done the same

I personally hate that map simply because as a Southern Marylander I don't want my region broken up like that, I'm happy with it as it is.

Charles County isn't "Southern Maryland" anymore, it's become an extension of Prince George's County.  To clump St Mary's, Calvert and southern A.A. counties in with DC suburbs and exurbs drowns out those rural areas.  Prince George's is big enough for a seat of its own, it should not drown out other portions of the state like the map that passed does.

However to address your displeasure, this is another scenario



What I particularly like about this one is adjoining Frederick to Montgomery Co, reducing A.A. Co from four districts to two, and returning the 7th to a Balto Co/City district as it had been prior to 2001
« Last Edit: July 16, 2012, 02:09:22 pm by timothyinMD »Logged
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« Reply #64 on: July 16, 2012, 02:59:10 pm »
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I can't get MD to load for me in DRA, I can get other states though. Anyone else having this issue?
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« Reply #65 on: July 16, 2012, 07:00:38 pm »
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So you guys actually think that the remap has a shot? I've got to disagree there, the average voter does not care about redistricting and would vote no without giving the referendum a second thought.
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« Reply #66 on: July 21, 2012, 12:20:07 am »
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Win-win.  If the measure is defeated, we keep the current map.  If the measure passes, the current map can just be replaced with an 8-0 map (which isn't really that hard to draw).

While an 8-0 could be possible, it's better to go 7-1, rather than end up with a dummymander like Georgia Democrats had in the 1990s that was supposed to eliminate Gingrich.

Of course gerrymandering should be eliminated, but Maryland is one of the few with gerrymanders for the Democrats right now.
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« Reply #67 on: July 22, 2012, 12:49:41 am »
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So you guys actually think that the remap has a shot? I've got to disagree there, the average voter does not care about redistricting and would vote no without giving the referendum a second thought.

The case for the voter repeal is quite easy to argue: just show examples of maps like Tim drew, and the map the legislature drew. 
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« Reply #68 on: July 25, 2012, 09:41:03 am »
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http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-07-24/news/bal-democrats-challenge-redistricting-petition-certification-20120724_1_democrats-challenge-map-congressional-districts

The lawsuit takes direct aim at Maryland Republicans' use of a web-based site, MDPetitions.com, to gather many signatures on line. The site, operated by Del. Neil Parrott of Washington County, has emerged as an effective way for the state GOP to challenge acts of the General Assembly through the referendum process.
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« Reply #69 on: July 25, 2012, 01:19:40 pm »
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"Fair" in Maryland is 6-2, both by geography and as a reflection of the state's partisan lean:



1: Harford is the logical partner for an Eastern Shore district, none of this crossing the Bay Bridge funny business.
2: Entirely BaltCo.  You could swap a bunch of land with 7 if getting a racial pack was more important than keeping jurisdictions whole, since 7 is over 50% black already, I see no reason to.
3: HoCo-based.  Most of the rest comes from Montgomery, which is way too big for one district.
4: Entirely Prince George's; 63% black.
5: Rural Southern Maryland is far too small for its own district, so it takes the less-developed portions of PG and most of Anne Arundel, which are the best fits.
6: Western Maryland and some other rural bits.  I particularly like the portion of Montgomery it takes, which is mostly protected farms walled off from the urban areas by parkland.  It's a sensible chop.
7: All of Baltimore City, and some Anne Arundel for population equality and to let 2 stay entirely within Baltimore County. 53.4% black.  The Anne Arundel portion of this district is literally the only part of the state that has any reason to be upset at all with this map.  But you can't please everybody.
8: MontCo.

Theoretically 2, 3, and 5 could be in play if there was a massive wave, or personal scandals.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2012, 01:26:28 pm by traininthedistance »Logged



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« Reply #70 on: July 25, 2012, 05:28:56 pm »
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"Fair" in Maryland is 6-2, both by geography and as a reflection of the state's partisan lean:



1: Harford is the logical partner for an Eastern Shore district, none of this crossing the Bay Bridge funny business.
2: Entirely BaltCo.  You could swap a bunch of land with 7 if getting a racial pack was more important than keeping jurisdictions whole, since 7 is over 50% black already, I see no reason to.
3: HoCo-based.  Most of the rest comes from Montgomery, which is way too big for one district.
4: Entirely Prince George's; 63% black.
5: Rural Southern Maryland is far too small for its own district, so it takes the less-developed portions of PG and most of Anne Arundel, which are the best fits.
6: Western Maryland and some other rural bits.  I particularly like the portion of Montgomery it takes, which is mostly protected farms walled off from the urban areas by parkland.  It's a sensible chop.
7: All of Baltimore City, and some Anne Arundel for population equality and to let 2 stay entirely within Baltimore County. 53.4% black.  The Anne Arundel portion of this district is literally the only part of the state that has any reason to be upset at all with this map.  But you can't please everybody.
8: MontCo.

Theoretically 2, 3, and 5 could be in play if there was a massive wave, or personal scandals.

I think this map could really do without the three-way chop of Anne Arundel. Is there any way to make that possible without really screwing up the rest of the map?
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« Reply #71 on: July 25, 2012, 05:52:24 pm »
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I think this map could really do without the three-way chop of Anne Arundel. Is there any way to make that possible without really screwing up the rest of the map?

I just tried seeing if swapping land between 3, 4, and 5 could fix things- give 3's portion of AA to 5, have 3 dip into Prince George's, have 4 fill out more of PG but stay entirely within the county.

It didn't work- 5 is overpopulated.  Some county has to be tri-chopped, or 4 has to leave PG, or you break up Howard, or something.  I'm pretty sure Anne Arundel has a far less cohesive identity than most other counties, since part of it is Baltimore suburbs and part of it is Southern MD, and part of it is Annapolis and part is BWI and... you get the idea.  That chop has to go somewhere, and AA is the least bad option IMO.
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« Reply #72 on: July 26, 2012, 09:54:49 am »
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"Fair" in Maryland is 6-2, both by geography and as a reflection of the state's partisan lean:



1: Harford is the logical partner for an Eastern Shore district, none of this crossing the Bay Bridge funny business.
2: Entirely BaltCo.  You could swap a bunch of land with 7 if getting a racial pack was more important than keeping jurisdictions whole, since 7 is over 50% black already, I see no reason to.
3: HoCo-based.  Most of the rest comes from Montgomery, which is way too big for one district.
4: Entirely Prince George's; 63% black.
5: Rural Southern Maryland is far too small for its own district, so it takes the less-developed portions of PG and most of Anne Arundel, which are the best fits.
6: Western Maryland and some other rural bits.  I particularly like the portion of Montgomery it takes, which is mostly protected farms walled off from the urban areas by parkland.  It's a sensible chop.
7: All of Baltimore City, and some Anne Arundel for population equality and to let 2 stay entirely within Baltimore County. 53.4% black.  The Anne Arundel portion of this district is literally the only part of the state that has any reason to be upset at all with this map.  But you can't please everybody.
8: MontCo.

Theoretically 2, 3, and 5 could be in play if there was a massive wave, or personal scandals.

Oh hell no to trapping Lake Shore in with Baltimore City.

I've been a live long resident of Harford County and it is NOT the logical partner to the Eastern Shore.  Southern Maryland (St Mary's, Calvert, southern AA counties) are much more similar to the eastern shore than Harford
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« Reply #73 on: July 29, 2012, 09:03:49 pm »
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The case for the voter repeal is quite easy to argue: just show examples of maps like Tim drew, and the map the legislature drew. 
In theory it should be quite easy to argue anywhere, and yet every cycle these remap proposals come out and it seems like every cycle they all fail. Not to mention that, while it is effective at splitting the state up into reliably Democratic slices, the Maryland map does not actually look all that horrible on paper. Thats doubly true when compared to some other maps, including a particularly notorious one just north of it...
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