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July 24, 2014, 05:44:24 am
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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Rating the Senatorial Races
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Author Topic: Rating the Senatorial Races  (Read 1171 times)
morgieb
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« Reply #25 on: June 22, 2014, 12:57:08 am »
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Graham's won his primary already...
Aah yeah forgot that the SC primary had already went.

Move that down to like 20-something then.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #26 on: July 12, 2014, 01:22:13 pm »
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7/12 Ratings Changes
Alaska: Toss-Up ---> Lean D (Still 9th likeliest to flip)
New Hampshire: Likely D ---> Safe D (Still 14th likeliest to flip)

Colorado: 12th likeliest to flip ---> 10th likeliest to flip (Still Lean D)
Michigan: 10th likeliest to flip ---> 11th likeliest to flip (Still Lean D)
Iowa: 11th likeliest to flip --> 12th likeliest to flip (Still Lean D)

Kentucky: 6th likeliest to flip ---> 5th likeliest to flip (Still Toss-Up)
Louisiana: 5th likeliest to flip ---> 6th likeliest to flip (Still Toss-Up)

Georgia: 8th likeliest to flip ---> 7th likeliest to flip (Still Toss-Up)
North Carolina: 7th likeliest to flip ---> 8th likeliest to flip (Still Toss-Up)

South Carolina: 19th likeliest to flip ---> 18th likeliest to flip (Still Safe R)
Tennessee: 20th likeliest to flip ---> 19th likeliest to flip (Still Safe R)
Nebraska: 18th likeliest to flip ---> 20th likeliest to flip (Still Safe R)

Kansas: 22nd likeliest to flip ---> 21st likeliest to flip (Still Safe R)
Hawaii: 21st likeliest to flip ---> 22nd likeliest to flip (Still Safe D)

New Ratings
1. SD - OPEN (Likely R)
2. WV - OPEN (Likely R)
3. MT - OPEN (Lean R)
4. AR - Pryor (Toss-Up)

5. KY - McConnell (Toss-Up)
6. LA - Landrieu (Toss-Up)
7. GA - OPEN (Toss-Up)
8. NC - Hagan (Toss-Up)
9. AK - Begich (Lean D)
10. CO - Udall (Lean D)
11. MI - OPEN (Lean D)
12. IA - OPEN (Lean D)

13. MS - Cochran (Likely R)
14. NH - Shaheen (Safe D)
15. MN - Franken (Safe D)
16. OR - Merkley (Safe D)
17. VA - Warner (Safe D)

18. SC - Graham (Safe R)
19. TN - Alexander (Safe R)
20. NE - OPEN (Safe R)

21. KS - Roberts (Safe R)
22. HI - Schatz (Safe D)
23. ME - Collins (Safe R)
24. TX - Cornyn (Safe R)

25. NJ - Booker (Safe D)
26. MA - Markey (Safe D)

27. OK - OPEN (Safe R)
28. SC - Scott (Safe R)

29. IL - Durbin (Safe D)
30. NM - Udall (Safe D)
31. DE - Coons (Safe D)

32. OK - Inhofe (Safe R)
33. ID - Risch (Safe R)
34. WY - Enzi (Safe R)

35. RI - Reed (Safe D)
36. AL - Sessions (Safe R)

Gun to my head, SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, KY, and GA all flip for a net gain of R+3.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2014, 01:27:13 pm by NHLiberal »Logged

Basically with Hillary vs. the GOP field, you're picking between spending the summer living with the shrill aunt who isn't much fun at all or the uncle whose hand always gets a little too close to your privates whenever you're around him.  No matter how much fun he claims you're going to have reforming government together just you and him, the aunt has the edge.
Wulfric
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« Reply #27 on: July 12, 2014, 08:01:39 pm »
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1. SD (Chance of flipping: 95%)
2. MT (Chance of flipping: 92%)
3. WV (Chance of flipping: 90%)
4. AR (Chance of flipping: 55%)
5. LA (Chance of flipping: 54%)
6. CO (Chance of flipping: 49%)
7. NC (Chance of flipping: 47%)
8. AK (Chance of flipping: 45%)
9. IA (Chance of flipping: 38%)
10. GA (Chance of flipping: 37%)
11. KY (Chance of flipping: 33%)
12. MI (Chance of flipping: 25%)
13. NH (Chance of flipping: 15%)
14. MN (Chance of flipping: 10%)
15. VA (Chance of flipping: 7%)
16. OR (Chance of flipping: 5%)
17. NJ (Chance of flipping: 4%)
18. MS (Chance of flipping: 4%)
19. TX (Chance of flipping: 4%)
20. IL (Chance of flipping: 3%)
21. KS (Chance of flipping: 3%)
22. TN (Chance of flipping: 3%)
23. SC-Graham (Chance of flipping: 3%)
24. NE (Chance of flipping: 3%)
25. MA (Chance of flipping: 2%)
26. HI (Chance of flipping: 2%)
27. NM (Chance of flipping: 2%)
28. SC-Scott (Chance of flipping: 2%)
29. OK-Coburn (Chance of flipping: 2%)
30. ME (Chance of flipping: 1%)
31. DE (Chance of flipping: 1%)
32. ID (Chance of flipping: 1%)
33. RI (Chance of flipping: 1%)
34. OK-Inhofe (Chance of flipping: 1%)
35. WY (Chance of flipping: 1%)
36. AL (Chance of flipping: 0%)
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Dixiecrat
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« Reply #28 on: July 12, 2014, 09:45:39 pm »
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Safe Democrat

-Delaware
-Hawaii
-Illinois
-Massachusetts
-New Jersey
-New Mexico
-Rhode Island

Likely Democrat

-Michigan
-Minnesota
-New Hampshire
-Oregon
-Virginia

Lean Democrat

-Alaska
-Iowa
-North Carolina

Tossup

-Arkansas
-Colorado

Lean Republican

-Georgia
-Kentucky
-Louisiana

Likely Republican

-Kansas
-Mississippi
-Montana
-South Dakota
-West Virginia

Safe Republican

-Alabama
-Idaho
-Maine
-Nebraska
-Oklahoma (both)
-South Carolina (both)
-Tennessee
-Texas
-Wyoming
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I'm about as ready for Hilldawg as I am for a prostate exam done by a homeless man behind a 7-11.
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