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January 31, 2015, 11:05:42 am
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| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  2014 Senate results by CD
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Author Topic: 2014 Senate results by CD  (Read 7227 times)
nclib
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« Reply #100 on: January 07, 2015, 10:13:09 pm »
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The only CD's to vote for a different party in the Senate than in the House:

Dem Senate/Rep House

KS-3 (Orman)
MI-4
MI-7
MI-8
MI-11
MN-2

Rep Senate/Dem House

IA-2
ME-1
NE-2

Incredible polarization. That's only 6.1% of total seats (not counting Ala.)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #101 on: January 07, 2015, 11:10:37 pm »
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The only CD's to vote for a different party in the Senate than in the House:

Dem Senate/Rep House

KS-3 (Orman)
MI-4
MI-7
MI-8
MI-11
MN-2

Rep Senate/Dem House

IA-2
ME-1
NE-2

Incredible polarization. That's only 6.1% of total seats (not counting Ala.)

Indeed. And also puts into perspective how terrible Lee Terry and Terri Lynn Land were.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #102 on: January 09, 2015, 10:11:31 pm »
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Idaho:



Whats pretty significant about this is the increasingly Democratic trend in Boise. Usually these districts are pretty close politically, but ID-02 which gets the Boise city part of Ada County is 6 points leftward of ID-01.

Its pretty visible actually in all the Idaho statewide races.
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Miles
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« Reply #103 on: January 09, 2015, 11:02:08 pm »
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^ FWIW, Risch lost the CD2 part of Ada County 58/42 but won the CD1 part 67/33 (though the CD2 part cast slightly more votes).
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The past decade of politics in LA & NC is like the process of evolution in reverse...


Miles
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« Reply #104 on: January 17, 2015, 04:08:40 pm »
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Texas

CD Summary:


Detail:
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Wulfric
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« Reply #105 on: January 17, 2015, 04:58:45 pm »
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Oh my god, that is a huge margin in CD 23. Now I know why Gallego lost.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #106 on: January 17, 2015, 05:40:03 pm »
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The only CD's to vote for a different party in the Senate than in the House:

Dem Senate/Rep House

KS-3 (Orman)
MI-4
MI-7
MI-8
MI-11
MN-2

Rep Senate/Dem House

IA-2
ME-1
NE-2

Incredible polarization. That's only 6.1% of total seats (not counting Ala.)

Wow. I suppose some of this is because gerrymandering has reduced the number of swing districts as opposed to just straight ticket-voting.

ME-01 seems like it'd have the biggest gap by a pretty wide margin - 58%-29% Dem in the House, 66%-34% Rep in the Senate.
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Miles
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« Reply #107 on: January 22, 2015, 11:47:03 am »
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I'm just updating my VA numbers so that they reflect the official results:

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The past decade of politics in LA & NC is like the process of evolution in reverse...


Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #108 on: January 24, 2015, 09:13:19 pm »
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At the risk of blatant self-promotion, I'm turning this into a series at AOSHQDD.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #109 on: January 29, 2015, 12:45:08 pm »
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The good news is that the complete set of all results, by precinct, for every county and city with a separate board of elections, was posted at the State Board of Elections on Dec 1. Every jurisdiction is in CSV format so it ports easily into Excel or any other spreadsheet or database. The difficulty is that there are 112 separate files and no cross correlations. Individual ballot lines are each treated separately in the files.

To answer a question like how did Durbin do by CD or Rauner by Legislative District requires finding all the precincts in the smaller district then finding the same precincts for the other race of interest. Its quite time consuming in a simple spreadsheet like Excel. It's a more reasonable task with a relational database like Access.

In any case, the SBE isn't going to create the correlations. The number of possible correlations between offices is enormous. Who is to say that US Senate by CD is the most important one to do? Since DKE did this for the 2012 data, I won't be surprised if they do the same for 2014. Of course they get to choose the correlations in that case.

Thanks, muon. I'm doing IL next and these links have been pretty helpful. They've been easier than going to each county/municpal site for results.

The most time-consuming part was Chicago, where there were about 130 split voting districts that I had to assign. I don't have time (nor really the patience, even by my standards) to split them individually, so I gave them to whichever CD they cast the most votes in; 'rounding to the nearest precinct' is how I usually deal with those situations. Thankfully, the split precincts were pretty lopsidedly split towards one CD, so it was obvious where to assign them. Yes, it leaves some margin for error, but most were heavily Dem anyway and we're talking about 130 out of 2,000+ precincts.

I'm working with some of the data-crunchers from DKE. I'll probably be the only one doing an exhaustive set of Senate/Gov races by CD, at least for the next few months. DKE seems more focused on breaking results down by LD.  
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