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April 25, 2014, 04:47:14 am
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| | |-+  Cook Report moves GA Senate race to "Toss Up"
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Author Topic: Cook Report moves GA Senate race to "Toss Up"  (Read 1991 times)
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jfern
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« Reply #75 on: April 18, 2014, 02:47:14 am »
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Seriously, Nate Silver predictions for senate aren't extremely inacurrate. Nunn isn't going to have more chance to be electec than Hagan.

He wasn't that accurate in 2012 either.

He gave Jon Tester ~30% chance of winning and gave Heidi Heitkamp ~20%.
It was even for Heidi Heitkamp even: 5% Tongue

Yes, the irony was that 538 and PPP were both too Republican.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #76 on: April 18, 2014, 02:53:02 am »
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Yes, the irony was that 538 and PPP were both too Republican.

Actually, PPP doesn't poll North Dakota.
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Harry
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« Reply #77 on: April 18, 2014, 07:15:48 am »
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Seriously, Nate Silver predictions for senate aren't extremely inacurrate. Nunn isn't going to have more chance to be electec than Hagan.

He wasn't that accurate in 2012 either.

Are we really going to do this again? Silver doesn't make predictions. He can't ever be "right" or "wrong." There is not nearly enough data out there to analyze his probabilities.

If candidates he gave a 5% chance to win never won, his model would be bad. Around once every 20 times, the 5% chancer should win. We need a larger sample size to know for sure, but since Heitkamp's the only senator to ever pull off the 5% upset by his numbers, and there have probably been around 20 races that he gave around a 95% on, it would be expected that one of them would have won.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #78 on: April 24, 2014, 12:17:45 am »
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David Perdue is getting some heat for criticizing Karen Handel for not having a college degree.

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"There's a high-school graduate in this race, okay?" said Perdue, referring to his opponent, former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel. "I'm sorry, these issues are so much broader, so complex. There's only one candidate in this race who's ever lived outside the United States. How can you bring value to a debate about the economy unless you have any understanding about the free-enterprise system and what it takes to compete in the global economy?"

It seems like a downright bizarre line of reasoning to go down in a state that's not exactly known for its high educational attainment. David Perdue is also apparently the former CEO of Dollar General, which seems to make him an all-too fitting standard bearer for today's GOP.

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I have spent my career running businesses and creating jobs, he says, touting the jobs he created at Dollar General. Im ready to use my private sector experience to help get big government out of the way and unleash the power of our American economy.
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