Miles' Election Map Thread

[MilesC56]

[MilesC56]

And for the primary:



There were more Republicans running, but only these four actually carried precincts.

[MilesC56]

[MilesC56]

A pretty obvious dynamic here; the non-Buncombe part (82% of the district) voted 77% Yes while it failed by 20 points in Buncombe county.

[MilesC56]

An updated statewide map:



(sorted by most to least conservative)

[nclib]

Miles, if you can, it would be interesting seeing those maps for the old (current) CD's which much better reflect communities of interest.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

Looking at those maps, they really test the rules of contingency.

[MilesC56]

Speaking of testing the rules of contingency, I don't think I posted CD4 on this thread:

[MilesC56]

Miles, if you can, it would be interesting seeing those maps for the old (current) CD's which much better reflect communities of interest.

Once I make all the new CDs, I'll fit them together into a state map and them break that map down again into the old CDs

[Vasall des Midas]

So it had that southern appendage only to keep some Republicans out of the second district?

EDIT: Nope, that's the new map. Makes for an... odd... look.

[MilesC56]

So it had that southern appendage only to keep some Republicans out of the second district?

Well, that was the most efficient way for CD4 to pick up Democratic voters in Fayetteville.

[Vasall des Midas]

So it had that southern appendage only to keep some Republicans out of the second district?

Well, that was the most efficient way for CD4 to pick up Democratic voters in Fayetteville.

Although they weren't all that Democratic.

But of course they didn't have much leeway trying to shore up the second, retake the 8th and not make the 7th less Republican in the process. There's quite a lot of people in Fayetteville after all.

[MilesC56]

So it had that southern appendage only to keep some Republicans out of the second district?

Well, that was the most efficient way for CD4 to pick up Democratic voters in Fayetteville.

Although they weren't all that Democratic.

But of course they didn't have much leeway trying to shore up the second, retake the 8th and not make the 7th less Republican in the process. There's quite a lot of people in Fayetteville after all.

The 4th's part of Fayetteville is 71% Obama, so that went a long way towards shoring up Ellmers.

One Democratic legislator proposed an amended map putting Cumberland county almost entirely in CD2 and making CD4 much more compact. It would have brought CD2 to 52% McCain, down from 55.7%, while unpacking the 4th.

[MilesC56]

CD13 was 12% less conservative than the states as whole; Amendment 1 actually fell short of 55%.

The most interesting part of the equation here was Wake county. Despite narrowly voting for McCain (he got 50-51% there, IIRC), the Wake part of the 13th voted 53% Against. The electorate there behaved very similarly to that of the Mecklenburg voters over in CD9.

There seemed to be either low turnout in the rurals, high turnout in Wake, or something of a combination between the two. Wake county cast 70% of the ballots, while, in terms of registered voters, makes up 62% of the district.

The numbers for the rural counties may be slightly off, as there was an rather excessive amount of precinct-splitting with CD1.

[Gass3268]

Miles, have you posted the gay marriage map for district 1? I looked through the thread and I couldn't find it. 

[Pacific Justice IBDD]

great maps miles

[MilesC56]

Miles, have you posted the gay marriage map for district 1? I looked through the thread and I couldn't find it.  

I actually did CD1 within a few weeks after the election, before I made this thread, so I guess I never got around to posting it.

Despite being heavily Democratic, it voted almost exactly the same as the state as a whole. In fact, outside of Durham, it passed with 67%.



I always thought this district looks like a jellyfish lol

[Gass3268]

Miles, have you posted the gay marriage map for district 1? I looked through the thread and I couldn't find it.  

I actually did CD1 within a few weeks after the election, before I made this thread, so I guess I never got around to posting it.

Despite being heavily Democratic, it voted almost exactly the same as the state as a whole. In fact, outside of Durham, it passed with 67%.



I always thought this district looks like a jellyfish lol

It does look like a jellyfish. I wonder how the vote in this district would have changed if it took place after Obama came out in favor of Gay Marriage?

[MilesC56]

Looking at the statewide CD map, it would interesting to gerrymander a third Against district.

Actually, it probably wouldn't be that hard. You'd probably just have to give the Wake arm of the 4th to the 13th, as the 4th could absorb more For voters; the 13th would then shed some rural counties and should then be an Against district.

[MilesC56]

Looking at the statewide CD map, it would interesting to gerrymander a third Against district.

Actually, it probably wouldn't be that hard. You'd probably just have to give the Wake arm of the 4th to the 13th, as the 4th could absorb more For voters; the 13th would then shed some rural counties and should then be an Against district.

Actually, a fourth Against district would also be feasible. You could give more Against voters in Charlotte to the 9th while pulling some strongly-For precincts in Union and Iredell out of the district. To keep the 12th Against, it could expand more into Greensboro and W-S.

If the VRA wasn't an issue, Durham could be used to possibly squeeze out a fifth district. But where would you use Durham? Maybe you could target CD2, as Ellmers was against the Amendment anyway.

[Senator Snowstalker]

I noticed that Dare County (where I've been on vacation several times; it's in Jones's district) voted for McCain but against Amendment 1. Any reason for this?

[MilesC56]

I noticed that Dare County (where I've been on vacation several times; it's in Jones's district) voted for McCain but against Amendment 1. Any reason for this?

Well, during the debate on Amendment 1, the Democrats argued that it would hurt tourism in the state; I guess that argument sold well in Dare county.

[nclib]

Looking at the statewide CD map, it would interesting to gerrymander a third Against district.

Actually, it probably wouldn't be that hard. You'd probably just have to give the Wake arm of the 4th to the 13th, as the 4th could absorb more For voters; the 13th would then shed some rural counties and should then be an Against district.

Actually, a fourth Against district would also be feasible. You could give more Against voters in Charlotte to the 9th while pulling some strongly-For precincts in Union and Iredell out of the district. To keep the 12th Against, it could expand more into Greensboro and W-S.

If the VRA wasn't an issue, Durham could be used to possibly squeeze out a fifth district. But where would you use Durham? Maybe you could target CD2, as Ellmers was against the Amendment anyway.

I would bet that the old 13th may be Against (or at least close). It would be interesting to gerrymander the most Against CD possible--would prob. be Orange, Durham, most of Wake, and part of Chatham.

[MilesC56]

The old 13th was very close; it failed in Raliegh and Greensboro, but that wasn't enough to offset its landslide margins elsewhere:

[socaldem]

And for the primary:



There were more Republicans running, but only these four actually carried precincts.

The Amendment 1 maps and the republican nominees weakness in Mecklenberg County are making me somewhat bullish on Jennifer Roberts. She seems kind of Kay Hagen-esque. I think this has potential to be one of the upsets of the cycle.