Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 23, 2014, 11:12:19 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Miles' Election Map Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 23 Print
Author Topic: Miles' Election Map Thread  (Read 37999 times)
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #100 on: August 29, 2012, 10:15:40 pm »
Ignore

Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #101 on: August 30, 2012, 12:32:13 am »
Ignore

And for the primary:



There were more Republicans running, but only these four actually carried precincts.
Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #102 on: August 30, 2012, 04:47:26 pm »
Ignore

Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #103 on: September 08, 2012, 12:49:36 pm »
Ignore

A pretty obvious dynamic here; the non-Buncombe part (82% of the district) voted 77% Yes while it failed by 20 points in Buncombe county.

Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #104 on: September 08, 2012, 01:08:12 pm »
Ignore

An updated statewide map:



(sorted by most to least conservative)

Logged


nclib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8852


View Profile
« Reply #105 on: September 08, 2012, 08:27:53 pm »
Ignore

Miles, if you can, it would be interesting seeing those maps for the old (current) CD's which much better reflect communities of interest.
Logged



[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5615
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #106 on: September 08, 2012, 08:53:24 pm »
Ignore

Looking at those maps, they really test the rules of contingency.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #107 on: September 10, 2012, 10:39:44 am »
Ignore

Speaking of testing the rules of contingency, I don't think I posted CD4 on this thread:

Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #108 on: September 10, 2012, 10:42:47 am »
Ignore

Miles, if you can, it would be interesting seeing those maps for the old (current) CD's which much better reflect communities of interest.

Once I make all the new CDs, I'll fit them together into a state map and them break that map down again into the old CDs Smiley
Logged


only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58775
India


View Profile
« Reply #109 on: September 10, 2012, 10:44:03 am »
Ignore

So it had that southern appendage only to keep some Republicans out of the second district?

EDIT: Nope, that's the new map. Makes for an... odd... look.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2012, 10:45:51 am by Minion of Midas »Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #110 on: September 10, 2012, 10:47:15 am »
Ignore

So it had that southern appendage only to keep some Republicans out of the second district?

Well, that was the most efficient way for CD4 to pick up Democratic voters in Fayetteville.
Logged


only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58775
India


View Profile
« Reply #111 on: September 10, 2012, 10:49:20 am »
Ignore

So it had that southern appendage only to keep some Republicans out of the second district?

Well, that was the most efficient way for CD4 to pick up Democratic voters in Fayetteville.
Although they weren't all that Democratic.

But of course they didn't have much leeway trying to shore up the second, retake the 8th and not make the 7th less Republican in the process. There's quite a lot of people in Fayetteville after all.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #112 on: September 10, 2012, 10:58:36 am »
Ignore

So it had that southern appendage only to keep some Republicans out of the second district?

Well, that was the most efficient way for CD4 to pick up Democratic voters in Fayetteville.
Although they weren't all that Democratic.

But of course they didn't have much leeway trying to shore up the second, retake the 8th and not make the 7th less Republican in the process. There's quite a lot of people in Fayetteville after all.

The 4th's part of Fayetteville is 71% Obama, so that went a long way towards shoring up Ellmers.

One Democratic legislator proposed an amended map putting Cumberland county almost entirely in CD2 and making CD4 much more compact. It would have brought CD2 to 52% McCain, down from 55.7%, while unpacking the 4th.
Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #113 on: September 15, 2012, 01:22:56 pm »
Ignore



CD13 was 12% less conservative than the states as whole; Amendment 1 actually fell short of 55%.

The most interesting part of the equation here was Wake county. Despite narrowly voting for McCain (he got 50-51% there, IIRC), the Wake part of the 13th voted 53% Against. The electorate there behaved very similarly to that of the Mecklenburg voters over in CD9.

There seemed to be either low turnout in the rurals, high turnout in Wake, or something of a combination between the two. Wake county cast 70% of the ballots, while, in terms of registered voters, makes up 62% of the district.

The numbers for the rural counties may be slightly off, as there was an rather excessive amount of precinct-splitting with CD1.


« Last Edit: September 15, 2012, 06:27:26 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4538
United States


View Profile
« Reply #114 on: September 15, 2012, 01:56:00 pm »
Ignore

Miles, have you posted the gay marriage map for district 1? I looked through the thread and I couldn't find it. 
Logged
IBDD
1236
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1747
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #115 on: September 15, 2012, 02:09:19 pm »
Ignore

great maps miles Cheesy
Logged

Great ambition is the passion of a great character. Those endowed with it may perform very good or very bad acts. All depends on the principles which direct them.-Napoleon Bonaparte


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #116 on: September 15, 2012, 02:25:38 pm »
Ignore

Miles, have you posted the gay marriage map for district 1? I looked through the thread and I couldn't find it.  

I actually did CD1 within a few weeks after the election, before I made this thread, so I guess I never got around to posting it.

Despite being heavily Democratic, it voted almost exactly the same as the state as a whole. In fact, outside of Durham, it passed with 67%.



I always thought this district looks like a jellyfish lol
Logged


Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4538
United States


View Profile
« Reply #117 on: September 15, 2012, 04:42:18 pm »
Ignore

Miles, have you posted the gay marriage map for district 1? I looked through the thread and I couldn't find it.  

I actually did CD1 within a few weeks after the election, before I made this thread, so I guess I never got around to posting it.

Despite being heavily Democratic, it voted almost exactly the same as the state as a whole. In fact, outside of Durham, it passed with 67%.



I always thought this district looks like a jellyfish lol

It does look like a jellyfish. I wonder how the vote in this district would have changed if it took place after Obama came out in favor of Gay Marriage?
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #118 on: September 15, 2012, 06:33:36 pm »
Ignore


Looking at the statewide CD map, it would interesting to gerrymander a third Against district.

Actually, it probably wouldn't be that hard. You'd probably just have to give the Wake arm of the 4th to the 13th, as the 4th could absorb more For voters; the 13th would then shed some rural counties and should then be an Against district.
Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #119 on: September 15, 2012, 07:13:06 pm »
Ignore


Looking at the statewide CD map, it would interesting to gerrymander a third Against district.

Actually, it probably wouldn't be that hard. You'd probably just have to give the Wake arm of the 4th to the 13th, as the 4th could absorb more For voters; the 13th would then shed some rural counties and should then be an Against district.


Actually, a fourth Against district would also be feasible. You could give more Against voters in Charlotte to the 9th while pulling some strongly-For precincts in Union and Iredell out of the district. To keep the 12th Against, it could expand more into Greensboro and W-S.

If the VRA wasn't an issue, Durham could be used to possibly squeeze out a fifth district. But where would you use Durham? Maybe you could target CD2, as Ellmers was against the Amendment anyway.
Logged


Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17877
Burkina Faso


Political Matrix
E: -8.45, S: -4.26

View Profile
« Reply #120 on: September 15, 2012, 08:11:13 pm »
Ignore

I noticed that Dare County (where I've been on vacation several times; it's in Jones's district) voted for McCain but against Amendment 1. Any reason for this?
Logged

Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #121 on: September 15, 2012, 08:22:03 pm »
Ignore

I noticed that Dare County (where I've been on vacation several times; it's in Jones's district) voted for McCain but against Amendment 1. Any reason for this?

Well, during the debate on Amendment 1, the Democrats argued that it would hurt tourism in the state; I guess that argument sold well in Dare county.
Logged


nclib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8852


View Profile
« Reply #122 on: September 15, 2012, 09:07:17 pm »
Ignore


Looking at the statewide CD map, it would interesting to gerrymander a third Against district.

Actually, it probably wouldn't be that hard. You'd probably just have to give the Wake arm of the 4th to the 13th, as the 4th could absorb more For voters; the 13th would then shed some rural counties and should then be an Against district.


Actually, a fourth Against district would also be feasible. You could give more Against voters in Charlotte to the 9th while pulling some strongly-For precincts in Union and Iredell out of the district. To keep the 12th Against, it could expand more into Greensboro and W-S.

If the VRA wasn't an issue, Durham could be used to possibly squeeze out a fifth district. But where would you use Durham? Maybe you could target CD2, as Ellmers was against the Amendment anyway.

I would bet that the old 13th may be Against (or at least close). It would be interesting to gerrymander the most Against CD possible--would prob. be Orange, Durham, most of Wake, and part of Chatham.
Logged



[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16087
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #123 on: September 15, 2012, 09:53:05 pm »
Ignore

The old 13th was very close; it failed in Raliegh and Greensboro, but that wasn't enough to offset its landslide margins elsewhere:

Logged


socaldem
skolodji
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 760


View Profile
« Reply #124 on: September 20, 2012, 02:40:04 am »
Ignore

And for the primary:



There were more Republicans running, but only these four actually carried precincts.

The Amendment 1 maps and the republican nominees weakness in Mecklenberg County are making me somewhat bullish on Jennifer Roberts. She seems kind of Kay Hagen-esque. I think this has potential to be one of the upsets of the cycle.
Logged

The Political Compass

Economic Left/Right: -4.50
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.79
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 23 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines