Miles' Election Map Thread

[Miles]

[Miles]

Cazayoux would have lost in 2010 anyway, but this election was nonetheless very frustrating:

[nclib]

I was comparing the pro-gay% in areas of counties in black-majority CDs vs. the county vote. It looks like the black areas were more pro-gay (though perhaps because of white liberals moreso in such areas).

New CD-1            
           Gay%   other CDs   Gay% (in other CDs)

Beaufort   46.8%   3   26.5%
Chowan   31.3%   3   20.1%
Craven     38.0%   3    35.4%
Durham    66.5%   4,6,13     71.2%
Edgecombe   31.7%   13   19.6%
Franklin      40.1%   13   30.9%
Gates      28.1%   3   25.1%
Granville      32.6%   6,13   32.3%
Greene      26.4%   3   21.9%
Lenoir      36.5%   3,7   21.7%
Martin      34.1%   3   20.9%
Nash      18.3%   13   26.5%
Pasquotank   37.0%   3   28.5%
Perquimans   41.2%   3   30.6%
Pitt      38.3%   3   38.6%
Vance      28.8%   13   20.9%
Wayne      33.2%   13   18.3%
Wilson      32.0%   13   28.3%

New CD-12         
        Gay%   other CD's    Gay% (in other CDs)

Cabarrus    43.6%   8   29.2%
Davidson    29.2%   5,8   24.4%
Forsyth      54.5%   5   46.8%
Guilford      52.8%   6   49.0%
Mecklenburg   55.0%   8,9   53.9%
Rowan     34.1%   5,8   22.9%

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Wow, it's amazing to see so many of Cazayoux's solid precincts in BR drop 2 or more shades Democrat.  I guess that's what happens when another Democrat runs.  lol 



Great job, btw.  

[Miles]

Here's a look at the non-Presidential statewide results in NC this year. I averaged the performance of the candidates from the 9 Council of State races on a county-level basis.

Democrats won the races for Auditor (Wood), Insurance Commissioner (Goodwin), SoS (Marshall), Superintendent of Public Institution (Atkinson) and Treasurer (Cowell). Jim Cooper was unopposed for AG, so he wasn't included here.

Republicans flipped the Governorship with McCrory and held their offices as Agriculture Commissioner (Troxler) and Sec. of Labor (Berry).

The LG race is currently too close to call with Dan Forest (R) ahead of Linda Coleman (D) 50.12%-49.88%.

Overall, between the 9 races, the parties were very close. Democrats got 50.3% of the share and Republicans got 49.7%.

[Sol]

Here's a look at the non-Presidential statewide results in NC this year. I averaged the performance of the candidates from the 9 Council of State races on a county-level basis.

Democrats won the races for Auditor (Wood), Insurance Commissioner (Goodwin), SoS (Marshall), Superintendent of Public Institution (Atkinson) and Treasurer (Cowell). Jim Cooper was unopposed for AG, so he wasn't included here.

Republicans flipped the Governorship with McCrory and held their offices as Agriculture Commissioner (Troxler) and Sec. of Labor (Berry).

The LG race is currently too close to call with Dan Forest (R) ahead of Linda Coleman (D) 50.12%-49.88%.

Overall, between the 9 races, the parties were very close. Democrats got 50.3% of the share and Republicans got 49.7%.

How come Coleman won Jackson and Swain?

[Miles]

How come Coleman won Jackson and Swain?

They're both pretty Democratic. Even in 2008, Obama won Jackson and only lost Swain by 2.

[JacobNC]

Wow, this is a great thread.  You've put a lot of work into all of those maps.

If you are still doing maps, one that would be cool is the old District 7 vote for Congress this year.  I'm thinking McIntyre would've won it by a pretty large margin, seeing as he outperformed his 2010 numbers in many parts of the district that were left in tact (he barely won New Hanover in '10, but this year he won the gerrymandered Republican half of New Hanover narrowly).

A few questions I noticed in the thread, I'll answer them even though they're several months old.

Democratic strength in Smoky Mtns?  Partly because of economics.  Also because of the national park, which is obviously government run and brings a lot of tourism to the area.  And due to the environment; North Carolina doesn't have mining of any type (except in Mitchell County), so our mountain people are more pro-environment than the rest of Appalachia.

Elizabeth Dole strength in Northeastern North Carolina? Norfolk media market, most federal races are generic D vs. generic R.  State races lean more Democratic because the area has strong Democratic roots.

Do we have a shot at district 9?  Don't think so, unless the demographics change dramatically.  Obama worked really hard to GOTV in Charlotte so 60-61% is a ceiling for Democrats, unless you have a Democrat on the state level who is winning by a landslide.  South Charlotte is one of the few areas of NC that is more Republican in local/state races than federal ones.  Democrats rarely won Mecklenburg until Kerry won it in 2004.

[Miles]

Wow, this is a great thread.  You've put a lot of work into all of those maps.

Thank you Did you check out my 2012 NC thread here too?

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Yes, I'm guessing the old 7th would have been 57-58% Dem this year, up from 54% in 2010. McIntyre improved in the areas that he held, but there was some dropoff with the parts that went to the new 8th though; Kissell had most of Robeson county this year and he only got 69% there (McIntyre got 72% in 2010 and 86% in 2008).
 

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Pittenger will probably become entrenched. Otherwise, if he leaves, I could see it being competitive by 2016 or so. Roberts far exceeded by expectations this year. Just over the past 10 years, Mecklenburg has gone from 39% nonwhite to 49%; that trend has definitely bled over into south Charlotte.  

[Miles]

Wow, this is a great thread.  You've put a lot of work into all of those maps.

If you are still doing maps, one that would be cool is the old District 7 vote for Congress this year.  I'm thinking McIntyre would've won it by a pretty large margin, seeing as he outperformed his 2010 numbers in many parts of the district that were left in tact (he barely won New Hanover in '10, but this year he won the gerrymandered Republican half of New Hanover narrowly).

I did some preliminary math for the old CD7. For President, it wouldn't be statistically changed from 2008; I got 52.3/46.7 Romney. The Congressional vote was about 56.3/43.7 Democratic (up from 54/46 in 2010). 

[Miles]

This has actually been in the works for a while; I just recently compiled all these maps into a coherent chart. This is West Virginia's Congressional history from 1952 to 2012. 1952 was the first year that Robert Byrd was elected to Congress.

 

[minionofmidas]

You are wonderful.

[Gass3268]

Great West Virginia map series! It will  be crazy in 2020 when they in all likelihood slide down to two seats. 

[homelycooking]

This has actually been in the works for a while; I just recently compiled all these maps into a coherent chart. This is West Virginia's Congressional history from 1952 to 2012. 1952 was the first year that Robert Byrd was elected to Congress.

Oho! The gauntlet is thrown and the battle joined.

[Miles]

Thanks, everyone!

[minionofmidas]

Two notes: While you have different maps for 1968 and 1970, you have the same data. I suppose this is an error in the 1970 data?

What the hell happened in the first district in '72?

[Miles]

Two notes: While you have different maps for 1968 and 1970, you have the same data. I suppose this is an error in the 1970 data?

What the hell happened in the first district in '72?

Thanks. I must have switched the D and R data for CD1 in 1972. Arch Moore held that seat, but Bob Mollohan won it in 1968 and held it until 1983.

I'll fix those things (there were a lot of maps to keep track of!).

My favorite map is 2000. The light blue Republican district (Capito) looks funny sandwiched between the two dark red districts (Rahall and Mollohan both going unopposed).  

[Miles]

[Fuzzybigfoot]

lol 9 precincts lol

[Miles]

'Easy to see why Bart Gordon retired!

[morgieb]

I'm more surprised Gordon held the district for as long as he did. R+13 is pretty tough, particularly given it was more suburban than rural.

[Mr.Phips]

I'm more surprised Gordon held the district for as long as he did. R+13 is pretty tough, particularly given it was more suburban than rural.

The district that Gordon held in the 2000's was about three points more Dem than the current TN-06.  It included only moderately Republican(for Tennessee) and somewhat locally Dem Rutherford county, which was removed, and didnt include some now super Republican counties like Coffee, Fentriss, and Cumberland that were added to the district for 2012. 

Ironically, Democrats drew this district in 2001 so that they would have a decent chance of holding it when Gordon retired by removing fast growing and overwhelmingly Republican and suburban Williamson county.  That sure turned out well. 

[Miles]

[Miles]

LA-04 in 2008




If the election was in November instead of December, that would have probably done the trick for Carmouche; he would have had Presidential turnout and upticket help from Landrieu. Even so, I suppose this district would have been hard for any Democrat to hold down the line in 2010.

The results by parish:

[Miles]

Fun fact about MilesC56: My aunt and uncle are in the FBI and they oversaw the prosecution of Bill Jefferson.