Miles' Election Map Thread

[Miles]

Can you figure 1988 and 1992 Presidential results for these districts?

Lol, you don't have to quote the whole thing for things like this. I'll know what you're talking about

I'll try. I'll see what else I can dig up

[Miles]

Hmm, there doesn't seem to be precinct-level data on the website for 1988 or 1992

[Mr.Phips]

Here's an interesting bit of history. I was digging around in archives and this is the original map in 1991 that the Democrats were pushing for before they had to draw CD12 in its current serpentine iteration.



The new 12th district, gained after the 1990 census, was originally set to be a Republican sink the upper Piedmont.

It looks like they were trying to salvage their hold on CD5 even as that area was trending away from them. It keeps all of Forsyth and Watauga and reaches down into the Piedmont to grab a few Democratic towns.

CD9 would have been most all of Meckleburg and Lincoln counties. Today, this would probably be Lean D, but back then Mecklenburg was swingy. Even as late as 2002, it voted for Liddy Dole and Bush even cleared 50% there in 2000. This CD9 still would have been at least Lean R throughout the 1990's with Myrick.

CD6 contained all of Guilford county, which would seem good for Democrats today, but like Mecklenburg, Guilford was swingy at the federal level up until recently. Coble was (is) quite popular and well entrenched, so I think he would have held this seat throughout the 1990's as well.

The only seats that would have certainly elected Democrats throughout the decade (excluding 1994) would be 1, 2, 4 and 7.

CD3 would have fallen permanently with Jones in 1994 and in 1998, Robin Hayes would have still still flipped CD8 when Bill Hefner retired.

I guess, in retrospect, it actually helped Democrats that CD12 was ultimately drawn the way it was because it gave them at least one seat in the western part of the state.

Despite the ugliness of this map, only 9 actual precincts were split.

Kind of dumb how Democrats didn't also concede the 9th here as they did in their actual map in order to make the 8th safe by adding the most Dem parts of Charlotte and giving much of Union and Cabarrus to the 9th.  That way, they would have had five districts at the end of the decade and possibly even six if they had recruited a better candidate to take back the 5th in 1996 in a district that likely voted for Clinton in 1992.

[Miles]

The swing for Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks!

[Miles]

[Mr.Phips]

Here's an interesting bit of history. I was digging around in archives and this is the original map in 1991 that the Democrats were pushing for before they had to draw CD12 in its current serpentine iteration.



The new 12th district, gained after the 1990 census, was originally set to be a Republican sink the upper Piedmont.

It looks like they were trying to salvage their hold on CD5 even as that area was trending away from them. It keeps all of Forsyth and Watauga and reaches down into the Piedmont to grab a few Democratic towns.

CD9 would have been most all of Meckleburg and Lincoln counties. Today, this would probably be Lean D, but back then Mecklenburg was swingy. Even as late as 2002, it voted for Liddy Dole and Bush even cleared 50% there in 2000. This CD9 still would have been at least Lean R throughout the 1990's with Myrick.

CD6 contained all of Guilford county, which would seem good for Democrats today, but like Mecklenburg, Guilford was swingy at the federal level up until recently. Coble was (is) quite popular and well entrenched, so I think he would have held this seat throughout the 1990's as well.

The only seats that would have certainly elected Democrats throughout the decade (excluding 1994) would be 1, 2, 4 and 7.

CD3 would have fallen permanently with Jones in 1994 and in 1998, Robin Hayes would have still still flipped CD8 when Bill Hefner retired.

I guess, in retrospect, it actually helped Democrats that CD12 was ultimately drawn the way it was because it gave them at least one seat in the western part of the state.

Despite the ugliness of this map, only 9 actual precincts were split.

If you could tell me which counties are which and in which districts they are in, I could actually try and estimate Presidential numbers in these districts. 

[Miles]

My first map from a northern state !

I probably won't do many, as Homely does an excellent job of covering NY, but I was really interested in this race.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Awesome! 

[Incipimus iterum]

Good job

[Niemeyerite]

Beautiful job, ugly map... Hochul was such a great Congresswoman...

[Miles]

Like I did with WV a few months ago, here is the Congressional history of NC; this is the last century's worth of elections. For some of the maps, I consulted Fuzzy's maps (hat tip to him) and Ourcampaigns.com. I just wanted to put all these maps into a standardized set.


FULL SIZE.



Please tell me if you see any mistakes!

[Miles]

I also made this set to go with the one in my last post. These are NC's Congressional maps grouped by decade. The number under them correspond to the first election cycle that they were used for.

A few things:

- There was no redistricting for the 1922 or 1952 cycles.

- There were some mid-decade changes in the 1960s and 1990s.

FULL SIZE.

[JacobNC]

Great job!  Wow, pretty crazy that a district stretching from Mecklenburg to Mitchell and Avery Counties was once a Republican vote sink.

[Miles]

Great job!  Wow, pretty crazy that a district stretching from Mecklenburg to Mitchell and Avery Counties was once a Republican vote sink.

In the earlier decades, the Democrats did a good job of diluting the Republican strength in the west. The western Democrats were routinely reelected wit less than 60%.

[Miles]

An assortment of State Senate districts I randomly felt like doing:

[Miles]

McIntyre vs. Obama



Columbus County is really in a category of its own here. Obama lost it 53/46 but McIntyre won it 65/35. In fact in Obama's worst precinct there was 85/14 Romney; McIntyre carried that precinct, though by a single vote.

New Hanover County was more uniform than I expected. I expected McIntyre overperformnace to be the most pronouced near the southern part of the county. Instead, he ran a consistent 20-ish points ahead of Obama throughout the county.

As you would expect, Johnston County, where Rouzer is from, is pretty low on the crossover spectrum. Even within Johnston, the closer you got to the Wake County suburbs, the less voters were willing to split their ballots.

Finally, Obama actually performed better in one precinct in Hoke County. It was heavily black, IIRC, and they each got at least 97%. Still, I'd like to meet those Obama/Rouzer voters so I can slap them silly.

[windjammer]

You're doing a great job Miles. Congratulations!

[JacobNC]

^I think the votes in Hoke County were probably undervotes, voting for Obama but then skipping the rest of the ballot.

Raleigh beltway politics is very interesting... if you thought the biggest swings between Obama performance and downballot Democratic performance were in rural eastern NC you would be wrong.  Raleigh had some crazy swings... this is precinct 1-11 which is a super-rich Country Club Republican precinct off of Glenwood Ave.

71/28 Mitt Romney (R-President)
75/23 Pat McCrory (R-Governor)
65/35 Beth Wood (D-Auditor)!
83/17 Steve Troxler (R-Agriculture)!
54/46 June Atkinson (D-Superintendent)
53/47 Janet Cowell (D-Treasurer)

Even this super Republican, urban precinct voted to keep some of the Democratic Constitutional Officers.  Beth Wood's performance compared to Obama's is a 73 point swing!  Debra Goldman had serious problems, if the rest of the state's media had covered them like Raleigh's media did, Wood would have had a landslide win across the state.  Even my precinct in Wilmington, which only voted 53/46 for Romney, gave Goldman a win.

And it was the flipside in some super-Democratic Raleigh precincts - while voting heavily for Obama and even giving Walter Dalton a pretty big win, they voted to keep Steve Troxler and Cherie Berry in office.

[minionofmidas]

Pretty map. I like.

[Miles]

71/28 Mitt Romney (R-President)
75/23 Pat McCrory (R-Governor)
65/35 Beth Wood (D-Auditor)!
83/17 Steve Troxler (R-Agriculture)!
54/46 June Atkinson (D-Superintendent)
53/47 Janet Cowell (D-Treasurer)

No kidding.

The Lenoir County hand of CD7 was 71/28 Romney voted 51/47 for Perdue in 2008. I think McIntyre could improve his % there in going forward.

[Miles]

The swing in the south from 2004 to 2012.



Of the 1373 counties, 54% of them swung to Romney. Romney's best was Knott, KY, which swung 75.2% towards him. Obama's best was Webb, TX, which swung 39.8% Democratic.

[Miles]

Kissell vs. Obama



As you would expect, the further into the Piedmont you got, the less voters were willing to distinguish Kissell from Obama.

Kissell ran the furthest ahead in his homebase of Montegomery County, which is ordinarily slightly Republican-leaning by statewide standards. Sadly, only 4% of the districts votes came from there.

I was expecting Obama to perform better in a few Richmond County precincts because that dumb Demcorat who was running as write-in was from there. I didn't realized that while Kissell and Obama each got 50-51% in Richmond, Hudson only got 38% compared to Romney's 48%.

There are about 5 precincts oddly split in Union County that are relatively small; I just left those blank.

That one blue precinct in Robeson County kinda bugs me.

Finally though Hudson was from Concord, he failed to outrun Romney in any of the Cabarrus County precincts, reflecting his semi-carpetbagger status. Kissell, by contrast, has always lived in CD8.

Finally, on a bit of a personal note, while I was doing some research, I found that Hudson and I graduated from the same high school. Its kidna cool to have someone from my high school in Congress, but it sucks that it was at the expense of one of my favorite Congressmen.

[minionofmidas]

Pretty deep blue, too. Something wrong with the result possibly.

[Miles]

Pretty deep blue, too. Something wrong with the result possibly.

I double-checked that precinct and its seems to be right, though it cast more Congressional votes than Presidential votes, which is unusual.