Miles' Election Map Thread

[Miles]

Orleans Parish: Landrieu Edition



I compared Mary's % in the Senate runoff to Mitch's % in the Mayoral primary.

There wasn't a Republican running the Mayoral race, and Mitch's main opponent was a black Democrat, Michael Bagneris. Thats why most of the white-majority precincts, such as my home neighborhood of Lakeview (the cluster of purple precincts in the northwest) were pro-Mitch/anti-Mary.

Conversely, Mitch's worst precincts were black-majority and went >90% for Mary in the Senate race.

[Miles]

The runoff electorate was actually more Democratic than the state as a whole; Democrats made up a slight majorty of the electorate while their overall registration advantage is 47/28/25. The Independent share was down the most, compared to the statewide registration; probably a function of partisans mobilizing their base voters.

[smoltchanov]

Well, as i got accustomed, that doesn't means much in the South. A tangible percentage of registered Democrats there almost always votes Republican (while almost no one - vice versa), and most of the Southern Indies are conservative too....

[Miles]

Hagan 2014 vs Amendment I 2012 by County; eventually I'll make this into a statewide precinct-level map.

Basically, the gist of this map, in regards to the color scheme is: redder= more Democratic, bluer= less Democratic, darker= anti-SSM, lighter= pro-SSM.



Watauga and Dare were the only two anti-Hagan/pro-SSM counties.

I did a few other maps for comparison (they all use the same color scale):

Hagan 2008 vs Amendment I:



Lots more red/fuchsia, especially out east. Despite the statewide swing against her, in both the 2008 and 2014 maps, Wake and Mecklenburg counties are, respectively, the exact same color shades.

Obama 2012:



Hagan's 2014 map looks much more like this than her 2008 map.

2012 Statewide Democratic Average:



Democrats took a slight majority of the total non-Presidential statewide vote in 2012. Because of the nationalization of the Senate race, Hagan's map still looks more like Obama's than this one.

And finally, this was for my own curiosity more than anything else, here's Perdue 2008 vs Amendment I:



This is the only map in this quintet where all the pro-SSM counties voted Democratic (Perdue carried Dare County, unlike the other maps).

[Miles]

Sort of random here, but I'm starting a sub-series on New Orleans mayoral races.

I'll start with the 2002 primary:

[smoltchanov]

Miles, in such races, where almost all candidates belong to one party (Democrats in this case) some clarifications (black/white, liberal/centrist/conservative, and so on), are, IMHO, necessary. Not everyone knows all candidates and their positions...

[Miles]

^ I just make the maps. You probably know more than me about some of these races.

The 2002 mayor race was the first non-Presidential that I ever remember following. As an elementary school kid, I obviously didn't know much about the nuances of the race other than that my family supported and campaigned for Nagin.

Its pretty obvious Nagin became the de-facto Republican, winning the majority-white precincts. I'm also going to do precinct maps comparing % Nagin to % white. The change between 2002 and 2006 should be pretty interesting.

[smoltchanov]

Pennington (chief of police/black) and Singleton (city councilman/black) completely escaped my mind))) Other are relatively well-known. Thanks!

[nclib]

Miles, can you make a swing/trend map for KS-Sen, treating Orman as a Dem?

[Miles]

The KS maps really help show why Orman didn't carry KS-02; outside of that Kansas City-Topeka stretch, much of the district swung to Roberts.

Swing:



Trend:

[nclib]

What were the strongest swings?

[Miles]

^ You can click the links and the counties show you the swing/trend values if you hover over them

Ellsworth, McPherson, Saline, Riley, Morris, and Douglas counties were all over 20% swing to Orman.

[nclib]

^ You can click the links and the counties show you the swing/trend values if you hover over them

Ellsworth, McPherson, Saline, Riley, Morris, and Douglas counties were all over 20% swing to Orman.

I misread the map and thought red was republican. Why is there more blue on the second map? Or is this compared to the state rather than the nation?

[Miles]

^ You can click the links and the counties show you the swing/trend values if you hover over them

Ellsworth, McPherson, Saline, Riley, Morris, and Douglas counties were all over 20% swing to Orman.

I misread the map and thought red was republican. Why is there more blue on the second map? Or is this compared to the state rather than the nation?

For non-Presidential races, I almost always do trends based on the state, not the country. I should have clarified that. I think given the differences between the candidates in each each state, it makes more sense to do it that way.

The statewide swing was 12.98% to Orman, so any counties that swung to him less than that are purple or blue on the second map.

[Miles]

I'll dedicate this map to Tmth



And for Phil:

[JerryArkansas]

Miles, could I request a map?  I would love one of Washington and Benton Counties in Arkansas.  By the way, they look amazing as per usual.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Johnson County must be swinging GOP, because I thought it was a Dem-leaning county (or at least a swing county.)

How do you get the precinct maps if they aren't available on OpenHeatMap?

[Miles]

^ Not really. It was never especially Dem-leaning, to say the least. FDR and, I guess ironically, LBJ never even carried it. In the past few decades, its moved from being to the right of the state to being a few points to the left now.

I generally use DRA for precinct-level maps. I'm a fan of OpenHeatMap, but it only goes down to the county-level.

[Mr.Phips]

^ Not really. It was never especially Dem-leaning, to say the least. FDR and, I guess ironically, LBJ never even carried it. In the past few decades, its moved from being to the right of the state to being a few points to the left now.

Its certainly a must-win for any Democrat in a statewide race. 

[Senator Cris]

Miles, your maps are wonderful.

[Miles]

Jerry, I'm working on your AR maps.

I actually just got done with this map of Jefferson County, CO. I suppose I'll 'dedicate' it to Cris, as our number one Gardner fan. Yes, Gardner didn't actually carry the county, but one of his bragging points is that he won statewide without winning Jefferson.

[JerryArkansas]

Jerry, I'm working on your AR maps.

Thanks Miles, and Jefferson county looks great.

[Senator Cris]

Thank you Miles!

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Miles, your maps are wonderful.

[Ashbringer]

great maps