Miles' Election Map Thread

[Gass3268]

I would be interested to see what Mecklenburg County would have looked like on Amendment 1 if Obama had came out in favor of gay marriage before the vote. 

[Miles]

2008/2012 trend vs. Amendment 1.

[Miles]

Buchanan County, VA 2000-2012:

[Gass3268]

Buchanan County, VA 2000-2012:

Very cool! I'd love to see a similar map for the NoVa area!

[Miles]

Ok.

I want to some WV maps; precinct data there is hard to get, so I figured those old yellow dog counties in western VA would be the closest thing I could do for now.

[Miles]

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Awesome.  Is NOVA possible?

[Miles]

Awesome.  Is NOVA possible?

Yes, that is coming down the line.

[Miles]

I really wonder what those counties in southwestern VA would look like if Hillary were on the ballot.

[smoltchanov]

I really wonder what those counties in southwestern VA would look like if Hillary were on the ballot.

I wonder too. Personally - expect hodgepodge. Some counties (especially - after 2010) have, probably, gone Republican irreversibly, but there is no such almost universal "Appalachian hatred" of her, as is in Obama's case. Personally, i don't remember such heavy minority support and such rejection (almost visible hatred) on part of rural and southern whites, as in his case, during last 40 years i monitor US elections. It seems to me even Mondale vote in 1984 was "more balanced"

[Miles]

I really wonder what those counties in southwestern VA would look like if Hillary were on the ballot.

I wonder too. Personally - expect hodgepodge. Some counties (especially - after 2010) have, probably, gone Republican irreversibly, but there is no such almost universal "Appalachian hatred" of her, as is in Obama's case. Personally, i don't remember such heavy minority support and such rejection (almost visible hatred) on part of rural and southern whites, as in his case, during last 40 years i monitor US elections. It seems to me even Mondale vote in 1984 was "more balanced"

Yeah, I agree.

Hillary got over 80% in the primary in most of these counties. She'd be in a pretty strong position if those Democrats stuck with her in the general over the Republican.

What surprised me here was that relatively few people were willing to split there ticket for Kaine. Obama lost those counties 71/28; Kaine did only slightly better, as Allen won them 68/32.

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, I agree.

Hillary got over 80% in the primary in most of these counties. She'd be in a pretty strong position if those Democrats stuck with her in the general over the Republican.

What surprised me here was that relatively few people were willing to split there ticket for Kaine. Obama lost those counties 71/28; Kaine did only slightly better, as Allen won them 68/32.

Nationalized Election? Phenomenon, which is quite frequent now. Is there ANY county in Virginia with relatively high difference (say, more then 7-8%) between Obama and Kaine?

[Miles]

No; but I guess I underestimated the nationalization/polarization there.

[Miles]

NoVA may be harder than I thought. For example, in 2000, Fairfaix County has 206 voting districts; by 2012, it was up to 243.

I'll probably start with 2004 and I'll have to make some educated guesses when filling in the precincts.

[Mr.Phips]

I really wonder what those counties in southwestern VA would look like if Hillary were on the ballot.

I wonder too. Personally - expect hodgepodge. Some counties (especially - after 2010) have, probably, gone Republican irreversibly, but there is no such almost universal "Appalachian hatred" of her, as is in Obama's case. Personally, i don't remember such heavy minority support and such rejection (almost visible hatred) on part of rural and southern whites, as in his case, during last 40 years i monitor US elections. It seems to me even Mondale vote in 1984 was "more balanced"

Yeah, I agree.

Hillary got over 80% in the primary in most of these counties. She'd be in a pretty strong position if those Democrats stuck with her in the general over the Republican.

What surprised me here was that relatively few people were willing to split there ticket for Kaine. Obama lost those counties 71/28; Kaine did only slightly better, as Allen won them 68/32.

If the pro-gun and somewhat pro-life Kaine couldnt do that much better than Obama in those counties, I dont see how Hillary could. 

[JacobNC]

I really wonder what those counties in southwestern VA would look like if Hillary were on the ballot.

I wonder too. Personally - expect hodgepodge. Some counties (especially - after 2010) have, probably, gone Republican irreversibly, but there is no such almost universal "Appalachian hatred" of her, as is in Obama's case. Personally, i don't remember such heavy minority support and such rejection (almost visible hatred) on part of rural and southern whites, as in his case, during last 40 years i monitor US elections. It seems to me even Mondale vote in 1984 was "more balanced"

Yeah, I agree.

Hillary got over 80% in the primary in most of these counties. She'd be in a pretty strong position if those Democrats stuck with her in the general over the Republican.

What surprised me here was that relatively few people were willing to split there ticket for Kaine. Obama lost those counties 71/28; Kaine did only slightly better, as Allen won them 68/32.

If the pro-gun and somewhat pro-life Kaine couldnt do that much better than Obama in those counties, I dont see how Hillary could. 

Kaine got hurt by being on the same ticket as Obama.  If Hillary were at the top of the ticket I suspect Democrats would do a lot better in Appalachia.

Don't forget how popular the Clinton's were in Appalachia.  In 1996, Buchanan County was Bill Clinton's SECOND BEST county in the entire Commonwealth of Virginia, excluding super-Democratic cities like Richmond and Petersburg.

[Skill and Chance]

I really wonder what those counties in southwestern VA would look like if Hillary were on the ballot.

I wonder too. Personally - expect hodgepodge. Some counties (especially - after 2010) have, probably, gone Republican irreversibly, but there is no such almost universal "Appalachian hatred" of her, as is in Obama's case. Personally, i don't remember such heavy minority support and such rejection (almost visible hatred) on part of rural and southern whites, as in his case, during last 40 years i monitor US elections. It seems to me even Mondale vote in 1984 was "more balanced"

Yeah, I agree.

Hillary got over 80% in the primary in most of these counties. She'd be in a pretty strong position if those Democrats stuck with her in the general over the Republican.

What surprised me here was that relatively few people were willing to split there ticket for Kaine. Obama lost those counties 71/28; Kaine did only slightly better, as Allen won them 68/32.

If the pro-gun and somewhat pro-life Kaine couldnt do that much better than Obama in those counties, I dont see how Hillary could. 

Kaine got hurt by being on the same ticket as Obama.  If Hillary were at the top of the ticket I suspect Democrats would do a lot better in Appalachia.

Don't forget how popular the Clinton's were in Appalachia.  In 1996, Buchanan County was Bill Clinton's SECOND BEST county in the entire Commonwealth of Virginia, excluding super-Democratic cities like Richmond and Petersburg.

Maybe if Clinton had become president in 2008 these areas would still be voting Dem, but the realignment looks permanent now as long as coal is a national issue.  I don't doubt that Clinton/Warner or Clinton/Schweitzer would do better than Obama there, but it's a different electorate now.  You can't get 1996 back just by running a different candidate.  And Obama has shown that there isn't much need to try anyways...

[Miles]

Obama won three of the D >45% precincts (the two in Rockingham and the one in Durham) by exactly 1 vote.

[Dave from Michigan]

great thread and great maps. how do you make your maps look so professional?

[Miles]

great thread and great maps. how do you make your maps look so professional?

Thanks!

Well, I've been working at this for 3 or 4 years now. The programs I use are DRA, SnagIt Editor and Paint.Net for the images and Excel for the data.

[Miles]

[Miles]

Excluding Buncombe County, the district was 64/35 R.

[Miles]

I had few mistakes in the Congressional map of CD7 that I put out a month ago. When I went back and compared the Presidential map to the original Congressional map, I found a few Obama/Rouzer precincts, which seemed wrong. Here's the amended version:

[Miles]

We're gettin' close!

Just a few more districts to geaux.

[nclib]

Not a map, but comparing Obama's and McCrory's performances in NC in 2008 and 2012

2008 - best Obama/McCrory and McCain/Perdue gap (half of sum of major party margin)

Obama/McCrory   

Mecklenburg (McCrory's home county)   12.14%   
Union   6.22%   
Orange   5.00%   
Cabarrus   4.90%   
Wake   4.16%   

McCain/Perdue

Tyrrell   20.32%
Columbus   20.13%
Pamlico   18.04%
Martin   17.91%
Jones   17.58%

Obama/McCrory in 2012

Mecklenburg   11.55%
Cabarrus   9.25%
Union   8.11%
Catawba   7.95%
Burke   7.59%

Romney/Dalton

Rutherford (Dalton's home county)   10.06%
Cherokee   4.83%
Columbus   3.65%
Camden   3.51%
Gates   2.90%

Largest swing to McCrory:

Pamlico   23.17%
Tyrrell   22.68%
Carteret   21.00%
Hyde   20.59%
Alleghany   20.28%

Smallest swing to McCrory:

Mecklenburg   0.39%
Durham   0.49%
Rutherford   0.73%
Orange   1.38%
Wake   3.14%

Largest swing towards Obama

Northampton   2.21%
Anson   2.20%
Halifax   2.01%
Robeson   1.82%
Hertford   1.38%
   
Largest swing towards Romney
   
Alleghany   7.35%
Mitchell   4.77%
Ashe   4.71%
Macon   4.47%
Surry   4.36%