Miles' Election Map Thread

[Miles]

[Miles]

nclib's suggestion for 2012 Pres vs. Amendment 1.



FULL SIZE.

I made a few similar maps a while ago, mostly of the urban areas, but I changed up the color scheme a bit for this one.

[Miles]

The swing map for Jefferson Parish from 2008-2012:



Without that big swamp precinct:



My feeling here is that, as opposed to Baton Rouge which had higher turnout, lots of conservatives stayed home; turnout in Jefferson was down about 5-6K votes from 2008 to 2012. I was expecting Metairie and Kenner, the heavily R parts in the north, to be less elastic.

Many Republicans here are socons, so I guess some were less than enamored with Romney.

[Miles]

The swing in NC from 2004 to 2008.



FULL SIZE.

I was about 85% done with this when I realized that the data I got for this from the General Assembly site didn't allocate the absentee votes by precinct. I know it will likely produce very minor differences, but at some point soon, I'd like to go back and recalculate the results with absentees factored in.

[Miles]

Well, I know what my next map will be; I'll probably finish the 2011 LG map.

Jay Dardenne will probably be coming to my LA government class at some point this semester. We wouldn't him not to have a map to sign!

[JerryArkansas]

I got bored today, so I decided to map a make of the primary election Mary Landrieu was in in 1996.

[Miles]

Thanks!

[Miles]

'Rounding out my series on Jefferson Parish, the trend:

[Miles]

This is going to be part of a larger post eventually, but here's Blanco 03 vs Kerry 04:





I had to modify my usual 3% scale and it still wasn't enough. In some of those parishes in LA-05, Blanco was running 75%+ better than Kerry.

[Miles]

Landrieu 2002 and Blanco 2003 both win by about 4 points; their coalitions were more different that I expected.







Landrieu put together more of a typical 'Presidential' coalition; she ran ahead of Gore/Kerry in CD1 and 22 points better than Blanco in CD2. Landrieu narrowly lost the the other rural districts. I'm actually surprised Terrell carried CD7. Laffayette Parish went 59-41 for Terrell so that did it.

Jindal held Blanco to only 68% in CD2 while even Kerry was getting 75%.

The coalitions that Blanco/Landrieu put together really remind me of Perdue/Hagan. I guess running for non-federal office helped Blanco/Perdue in the rural areas while their opponents were from urban areas.

[RedSLC]

This is going to be part of a larger post eventually, but here's Blanco 03 vs Kerry 04:





I had to modify my usual 3% scale and it still wasn't enough. In some of those parishes in LA-05, Blanco was running 75%+ better than Kerry.

Wow. Why did Blanco run so badly behind Kerry in New Orleans, even while over-performing in pretty much every other part of the state?

[Miles]

Wow. Why did Blanco run so badly behind Kerry in New Orleans, even while over-performing in pretty much every other part of the state?

Jindal was from New Orleans area and was elected to succeed Vitter to represent CD1 in 2004. Jindal cast himself as reformer, and had much more crossover appeal in the area, while Blanco ran as more an old school Democrat.

The only thing I remember firsthand about that election: My mom, a liberal Republican, complained that they elected the "old Cajun grandma" instead of Jindal.

[Miles]

'03 Gov under the current lines:

[Miles]

[Miles]

2008 by CD:




I was expecting her margin in CD6 to be wider, but Livingston Parish is rough.

As for best overperformance, CDs 1 and 3 are tied; she ran 34 better than Obama in each.

CD1
Obama: -47
Landrieu: -13

CD3
Obama: -24
Landrieu: +10

[Miles]

Basically my last three Senate-by-CD races put into one:

[Miles]

2004:



Vitter win outright in large part because he nationalized the hell out of the race. Chris John was a Democrat from Acadia Parish who represented CD7. John Kennedy was (is) the state Treasurer who switched parties to run against Landrieu in 2008.

[Miles]

After running a close but unsuccessful bid for Majority Leader, Bennett Johnston was up for reelection in 1990. In running for a leadership post, he had to necessarily veer to the left. With that, some state legislator from Metairie named David Duke ran and won a majority of the white vote.

[Miles]

This was a fun race to break down:

[Miles]

Small change to Johnston/Duke. I forgot Rapides parish was split between CDs 5 and 8, not just in 5. Anyway, it pushes Duke over 50% in CD5.

FWIW, Duke got 56%-ish of the white vote.

[Miles]

The 1991 Primary.

Crunching the numbers for Cleo Fields' district was so darn tedious.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

The 1991 Primary.

Crunching the numbers for Cleo Fields' district was so darn tedious.

Good lord, that district is an abomination.

[Miles]

This is one of my new favorites:

[Miles]

[Skill and Chance]

If Landrieu won very narrowly in a runoff this cycle, would you expect her to only carry LA-02?