Miles' Election Map Thread
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Author Topic: Miles' Election Map Thread  (Read 111831 times)
Miles
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« Reply #550 on: April 10, 2014, 01:02:45 AM »

^ Very possible. CD4 would be next, but its 2 points more Republican than the rest of the state:

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Miles
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« Reply #551 on: April 11, 2014, 07:00:36 AM »

I'm pretty sure this is the most fractured race I've ever done.

I was actually expecting Landrieu to carry CD2. She got in the runoff because she got the most 2nd place finishes.

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Miles
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« Reply #552 on: April 12, 2014, 08:59:38 AM »

Going off the last map of the 1996 Senate race, I combined the Republican and Democratic votes in the primary and then compared that to the runoff. Landrieu was very lucky that the runoff was held concurrently with the Presidential election (back then, the primaries were in September or October).

In the 1996 primary, Republicans candidates collectively got 56% of the two-party vote. Comparing the partisan numbers primary to the runoff might not be exactly apples to apples, as the jungle primary emphasizes candidates over parties. Still, Landrieu was lucky to be on the ballot with Clinton for the runoff.

Here's the breakdown by parish. The first map is the two-party primary vote, then the actual Landrieu/Jenkins runoff, then the swing:



61 out of the 64 parishes got more Democratic. Calcasieu (Lake Charles) and Cameron Parishes swung Republican. The Democrat that Landrieu narrowly beat in the primary, Richard Ieyoub was from Lake Charles, so his home-region effect didn't translate over to Landrieu. Ieyoub was very popular there; he served as Calcasieu Parish DA and then went on to serve as the AG.

West Baton Rouge Parish also swung slightly R. My guess is that there are a lot working-class whites there that would have reacted better to Ieyoub than Landrieu. Ieyoub was very much in the tradition of the Longs, while Landrieu was seen as more of a modern Democrat. Jenkins was (is) also from around Baton Rouge, so that may have helped.

Next, here's the breakdown by CD. Again, the first map is the primary two-party vote. Though this was 1996, this map turned out to be a good preview of how the CDs would go on to vote in the 2000's. For instance, other than CD1, CD5 was the first district to give a Republican over 60% (Bush in 2004).

The second map is the runoff and then the swing.



Finally, I did looked at the turnout. Overall, the turnout jump from the September primary to the November runoff was 38.4%, or about 500K votes. Higher turnout in urban parishes helped Landrieu. Still, there wasn't really an overwhelming correlation between increased turnout and partisan swing. For example, the turnout spiked around Shreveport but CD4 only swung 10% to Landrieu (less than the statewide swing). Also, while the parishes around Alexandria all swung markedly D, their turnout was fairly static.

Caldwell Parish was the only parish to cast less votes in the runoff. Its a very small, rural parish (population 10K), so that's likely why. David Duke always did well there (even carrying it in the primary), so perhaps election enthusiasm there decreased with him off the ballot.

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Miles
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« Reply #553 on: April 12, 2014, 12:27:10 PM »

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Miles
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« Reply #554 on: April 23, 2014, 09:43:43 PM »

Kinda boring, but here's how the old CDs would have voted in 2012:

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Miles
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« Reply #555 on: April 26, 2014, 10:11:52 AM »

DKE has this race crunched under the current lines but I wanted to do the old ones too:

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Miles
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« Reply #556 on: May 02, 2014, 05:44:14 PM »

Despite being a good year for Democrats, 1986 was one of the better pickup opportunities the GOP had in LA during the twentieth century. Russell Long (considered the best Senator in the state's history) was retiring.

Republicans had a top-tier recruit in Hensen Moore, who had rep'd CD6 for several terms. Democrats fielded a few candidates, the strongest being John Breaux who was rep'ing CD7 and was an Edwards ally.

The also-rans for the Democrats were Sammy Nunez who held the State Senate seat from Plaquemines and St. Bernard Parish since 1969; Nunez was also President of the State Senate. J.E Jumonville was also a State Senator who held a rural district based around western Baton Rouge.

I didn't do a second place map for this, as it was basically a matchup between Breax and Moore.

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smoltchanov
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« Reply #557 on: May 03, 2014, 12:34:14 AM »

Speaking about geography - Shreveport area seems to be more conservative at that time then now, while Acadiana - vice versa (yes, i know that Breaux was a congressman from that area, but the same is true for many other races)...
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Miles
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« Reply #558 on: May 03, 2014, 08:00:56 AM »

Speaking about geography - Shreveport area seems to be more conservative at that time then now, while Acadiana - vice versa (yes, i know that Breaux was a congressman from that area, but the same is true for many other races)...

I was actually surprised to see that Moore cleared 50% in CD4. Shreveport strikes me as a very much a conservative 'old south' area and, locally, I think it was moving towards the GOP beginning in the early 80's. Shreveport had a decent population of older, upper-class Democrats; someone from Baton Rouge may have had more appeal to them than a populist like Breaux. Acadiana was usually more Democratic than the rest of the state and didn't start moving Republican until the early 90's (its trended R in every Pres. election since 1992).

Here's the runoff. Breaux had a better showing in CD4, but still lost Caddo parish by 12.

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Miles
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« Reply #559 on: May 03, 2014, 08:37:11 AM »

Going along with that, here's the swing from Breaux/Moore '86 to Duke/Johnston '90.

Duke performed 5% worse than Moore but improved in 45 (!) parishes. 'Very obvious rural/urban contrast.

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JacobNC
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« Reply #560 on: May 11, 2014, 01:03:28 AM »

Miles, this new NCSBE layout is really a problem.  Are you still able to find county and precinct maps like they had before?
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Miles
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« Reply #561 on: May 11, 2014, 09:44:45 AM »

Miles, this new NCSBE layout is really a problem.  Are you still able to find county and precinct maps like they had before?

Yeah, its a shame. NC went from one of the best systems to one of the worst. I can still get precinct-level data, but the process is much messier. I'm waiting a while for the state to allocate the early/absentee votes by VTD, then I'll have some precinct maps for last week's races!
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JacobNC
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« Reply #562 on: July 11, 2014, 02:42:14 AM »

Miles, I just found this cool map at N&O.  Does it look accurate to you?  Are all the votes allocated?  I know the "registered minorities" thing is wrong.

http://www.newsobserver.com/ncprecincts/
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Miles
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« Reply #563 on: July 11, 2014, 12:28:55 PM »

^ Thanks, good find. It mostly matches up to my precinct map but I've found a few differences. I guess I was bound to make a few errors going through all that data. I can't tell if they've allocated the absentees, etc. by VTD because they use percentages instead of the raw vote totals. The biggest error on that map looks like Greene County. They have Romney winning all the precincts; I know Obama won at least two. I'll check it out. 
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JacobNC
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« Reply #564 on: July 11, 2014, 11:15:10 PM »

I also see errors in Bladen and Gates Counties.  Shame, because the interactive precinct map is cool.
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Miles
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« Reply #565 on: August 15, 2014, 08:36:45 PM »

This was when one of my favorites, ol' Bev Perdue was elected Governor:



LINK TO FULL SIZE MAP.

Actually started on this back in February! I got about 75-80% of the way through before realizing I forgot to calculate for absentee/early votes. In a state like NC, they usually account for 25-40% of the total vote, a significant chunk. After I realized that, this kinda feel to the wayside until a few weeks ago when I picked it back up!
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #566 on: December 24, 2014, 03:41:08 PM »

I know the wounds are still fresh, but do you have/are you making precinct maps for NC-Sen and LA-Sen runoff this year? I'd be really thankful for them Smiley
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Miles
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« Reply #567 on: December 24, 2014, 06:31:29 PM »

^ Its on my list, but I haven't gotten to the full statewide results yet; I did put some county/parish results on the LA/NC 2014 thread, though.

NC is usually easier and less complex, so I'll probably do it before LA.
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windjammer
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« Reply #568 on: December 24, 2014, 06:37:47 PM »

This was when one of my favorites, ol' Bev Perdue was elected Governor:



LINK TO FULL SIZE MAP.

Actually started on this back in February! I got about 75-80% of the way through before realizing I forgot to calculate for absentee/early votes. In a state like NC, they usually account for 25-40% of the total vote, a significant chunk. After I realized that, this kinda feel to the wayside until a few weeks ago when I picked it back up!
I'm obviously not an expert at all in NC, but from all the maps you did about your North Carolina, East North Carolina has been really overperformed by Perdue, right? Tongue
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« Reply #569 on: December 24, 2014, 09:02:13 PM »
« Edited: December 24, 2014, 09:06:21 PM by Fuzzybigfoot »

This was when one of my favorites, ol' Bev Perdue was elected Governor:



LINK TO FULL SIZE MAP.

Actually started on this back in February! I got about 75-80% of the way through before realizing I forgot to calculate for absentee/early votes. In a state like NC, they usually account for 25-40% of the total vote, a significant chunk. After I realized that, this kinda feel to the wayside until a few weeks ago when I picked it back up!

Nice!  Most of the real decline came from the Charlotte area.  I wonder how McCrory will hold up there next time around.  
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Miles
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« Reply #570 on: December 25, 2014, 10:27:33 PM »

I'm obviously not an expert at all in NC, but from all the maps you did about your North Carolina, East North Carolina has been really overperformed by Perdue, right? Tongue

Yep, Perdue is from New Bern (in Craven County) and represented the area in the legislature from the late 1980's until she ran statewide in 2000. She was popular in her district and was reelected easily. For example, this was her last State Senate race before she ran for LG:


Nice!  Most of the real decline came from the Charlotte area.  I wonder how McCrory will hold up there next time around. 

Yep. McCrory was running as the very popular mayor of Charlotte. Just to show how much NC swung Democratic in 2008, McCrory, even with his regional appeal there, was still running behind Bush 04 in most of the counties around Charlotte.

Both McCrory and Perdue still had impressive crossover support in their respective regions.

I don't think there's any way McCrory carries Mecklenburg County again, though (assuming he's in a competitive race).
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Miles
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« Reply #571 on: December 29, 2014, 01:54:51 AM »
« Edited: December 29, 2014, 02:02:03 AM by Miles »

I'll migrate back over here to start posting my result maps, instead of in the LA/NC 2014 update thread.

I'll crosspost this here anyway:

Tillis vs Amendment 1 in Mecklenburg County:



As a percentage of his vote, I think there's a good chance Tillis had more Against voters than For voters.

I have a feeling that there were more Hagan/For voters than Tillis/Against voters (just going by the sheer margin Hagan carried the county by).

My precinct in southern Charlotte was 56% Tillis, but voted 53/47 against Amendment 1; a pretty typical result for that area.


I'm hoping to eventually do a similar statewide map of the Senate race vs Amendment 1, but if there are any requests for specific counties, I'm happy to entertain them.
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Flake
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« Reply #572 on: December 29, 2014, 03:25:23 PM »

Buncombe county Smiley
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Miles
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« Reply #573 on: January 01, 2015, 03:18:58 AM »
« Edited: January 01, 2015, 04:58:38 AM by Miles »

I revised my color scale and redid Meckleburg County:



Hopefully the color nuances are easier to distinguish with this map than with the previous version.

Buncombe will be next.
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Miles
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« Reply #574 on: January 01, 2015, 06:28:40 AM »

Buncombe County:



Interestingly enough, the only anti-Hagan/pro-SSM precinct was the one that contains the Biltmore Estate (the lavender precinct south of the light-pink ones in downtown Asheville). I guess the country club Republicans there managed to stomach Tillis.
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