Miles' Election Map Thread

[Miles]

^ They were very small. He carried one precinct in each of Avoyelles, Tangipahoa, and Evangeline parishes.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Epic!

Do you have the CD tallies for the presidential race in Minnesota? 

[Miles]

^ Yeah, from the SOS site:

CD1: 53/38 Trump
CD2: 46/45 Trump
CD3: 50/40 Clinton
CD4: 61/30 Clinton
CD5: 73/18 Clinton
CD6: 58/33 Trump
CD7: 61/31 Trump
CD8: 54/38 Trump

[Heisenberg]

^So basically, 1 and 6-8 were pretty Trumpy, and 2 remained pretty even, yet MN-03 swung against Trump enough to deliver the state to Clinton. Anyone have an idea why 3 swung hard left but not 2?

[Torie]

^So basically, 1 and 6-8 were pretty Trumpy, and 2 remained pretty even, yet MN-03 swung against Trump enough to deliver the state to Clinton. Anyone have an idea why 3 swung hard left but not 2?

MN-03 is the most upscale CD in MN in SES by far. So it moved hard against Trump, while more middle class MN-02 was about static. So this fits the expected pattern well.

Off topic a tad, but the biggest shock to me, is that Trump did about the same with white voters as Romney (just a one point difference), but cut into the Dem percentages with respect to persons of color. That combined with a drop in black turnout, was what swung the election. The static nature of the white split shows just how dramatic whites diverged when it comes to swing by SES status, and "cosmopolitanism."

[Miles]

LA-03

A close result for Scott Angelle. I didn't expect him to avoid a runoff, but I thought he'd finish clearly ahead in the primary.

Angelle actually carried the district with a larger % share last year in the Governor primary than he got here.

Scott Angelle (R - orange) - 28.6%
Clay Higgins (R - blue) - 26.5%
Jacob Hebert (D - red) - 8.9%
Larry Rader (D - yellow) - 8.7%
Gus Rantz (R - purple) - 8.0%
Greg Ellison (R - cyan) - 7.8%
Brett Geymann (R - teal) - 6.7%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What are the chances of Angelle losing the runoff?

[Miles]

It should be very nasty - a good follow-up to Boustany/Landry.

Angelle is being compared to Neil Riser from LA-05 in 2013. Higgins is running as the 'outsider' as McAllister did, but Angelle should get more support from Democrats. That said, Higgins has a more dedicated base.

Angelle's strength in Calcasieu Parish is probably encouraging, as its the area furthest from his PSC district.

[Miles]

Maricopa County Sheriff

Penzone (D) - 56.4%
Arpaio (R) - 43.6%

[Miles]

Erie, PA

[Miles]

Lackawanna County

[diptheriadan]

Do you have a map for Tennessee or Montgomery County?

[Miles]

^ Tennessee doesn't have precinct data out yet. I'm working on several PA counties.

[publicunofficial]

Lackawanna County

#1 Reason we should've gone with Joe.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maricopa County Sheriff

Penzone (D) - 56.4%
Arpaio (R) - 43.6%

Sad!

That is one DAMNING result, especially in such a large county.

[Miles]

Franklin County, OH

[Fuzzybigfoot]

You wouldn't happen to have the results for OH-3, would you? 

[Miles]

^ Yep!

Clinton - 65.9%
Trump - 28.5%
Other - 5.6%

[Fuzzybigfoot]

^ Yep!

Clinton - 65.9%
Trump - 28.5%
Other - 5.6%

Thanks! 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lackawanna County

How Clinton lost PA: Exhibit A

The next democrat to win PA will need to realize that there is something that is not Philadelphia and Allegheny counties.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Franklin County, OH

Fascinating.  I kept telling people Hillary wouldn't over-perform so much in Hilliard.  I remember when a Republican who did that badly in Dublin was a goner in Ohio elections   It's also nice to see that Gahanna was almost certainly on the right side of history this time around; don't blame us   That said, without having checked the county results my guess from that map is that Franklin County actually swung 1-3% away from the Democrats this year, no way she cracked 60% (then again, Obama was a great candidate for Franklin County for a wide variety of reasons; Hillary Clinton...not so much).

[Miles]

Bucks County

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Erie, PA

Why Clinton lost PA: Exhibit B - forget that Erie County exists and likes to vote republican once in a while.

Bucks County

Why Clinton lost PA: Exhibit C - allow bucks county to narrow from a 1.3% margin to a 0.6% margin + lose at least a full 1% to Johnson + Stein

[publicunofficial]

Clinton's Pennsylvania strategy seemed to be: "Go after wealthy voters in Philly suburbs, assume left-leaning blue collar workers will stay the same as 2012"

[publicunofficial]

Miles, can I request Orange County?