Miles' Election Map Thread

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Etheridge also got a pretty decent win the new 7th:



Johnston county provided much of Etheridge's winning margin; without it, he still would have carried the district but only with 42.5% to Dalton's 41.5%.

Yeah baby! Who was the third candidate in this primary? where was his strength concentrated?

Bill Faison, St. Rep. from Orange and Caswell counties. Won only Caswell county.

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Miles, could you do other state maps by CD, perhaps gay marriage. This seems like a good format:

This is a pretty simple map, but I've been wondering for a while what the results of this race were on a CD-basis. With the runoff in TX last night, I thought I might as well do this map.

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Miles, if you can, it would be interesting seeing those maps for the old (current) CD's which much better reflect communities of interest.

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Looking at the statewide CD map, it would interesting to gerrymander a third Against district.

Actually, it probably wouldn't be that hard. You'd probably just have to give the Wake arm of the 4th to the 13th, as the 4th could absorb more For voters; the 13th would then shed some rural counties and should then be an Against district.

Actually, a fourth Against district would also be feasible. You could give more Against voters in Charlotte to the 9th while pulling some strongly-For precincts in Union and Iredell out of the district. To keep the 12th Against, it could expand more into Greensboro and W-S.

If the VRA wasn't an issue, Durham could be used to possibly squeeze out a fifth district. But where would you use Durham? Maybe you could target CD2, as Ellmers was against the Amendment anyway.

I would bet that the old 13th may be Against (or at least close). It would be interesting to gerrymander the most Against CD possible--would prob. be Orange, Durham, most of Wake, and part of Chatham.

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'And here we go:



Link.

That map really shows how dominant Amendment One was in rural areas. Only 40 (of 100) counties had even a single precinct against it.

In addition to the 8 counties that voted against (Orange, Durham, Wake, Mecklenburg, Chatham, Buncombe, Watauga, Dare), here are the others with the likely area in opposition to the amendment, in order of overall pro-gay vote:

Guilford   (Greensboro)
New Hanover   (Wilmington, coast)
Forsyth   (Winston-Salem)
Polk   (Tryon (artsy community))
Pitt   (Greenville (East Carolina U.))
Jackson   (Cullowhee (Western Carolina U.))
Transylvania   
Warren   
Moore   
Northampton   
Alamance   (Burlington/Elon)
Hyde   (coast)
Washington   (coast)
Craven   (New Bern, coast)
Pasquotank   (coast)
Hoke   
Carteret   (coast)
Franklin   
Henderson   
Halifax   
Currituck   (coast)
Cumberland   (Fayetteville)
Wilson   (Wilson)
Beaufort   (coast)
Nash   (Rocky Mount)
Lenoir   (Kinston)
Bertie   (coast)
Catawba   (Hickory)
Rowan   (Salisbury)
Davidson   (Thomasville)
Burke   
Stanly

Any comments about the others--perhaps a fluke in some cases...

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I was comparing the pro-gay% in areas of counties in black-majority CDs vs. the county vote. It looks like the black areas were more pro-gay (though perhaps because of white liberals moreso in such areas).

New CD-1            
           Gay%   other CDs   Gay% (in other CDs)

Beaufort   46.8%   3   26.5%
Chowan   31.3%   3   20.1%
Craven     38.0%   3    35.4%
Durham    66.5%   4,6,13     71.2%
Edgecombe   31.7%   13   19.6%
Franklin      40.1%   13   30.9%
Gates      28.1%   3   25.1%
Granville      32.6%   6,13   32.3%
Greene      26.4%   3   21.9%
Lenoir      36.5%   3,7   21.7%
Martin      34.1%   3   20.9%
Nash      18.3%   13   26.5%
Pasquotank   37.0%   3   28.5%
Perquimans   41.2%   3   30.6%
Pitt      38.3%   3   38.6%
Vance      28.8%   13   20.9%
Wayne      33.2%   13   18.3%
Wilson      32.0%   13   28.3%

New CD-12         
        Gay%   other CD's    Gay% (in other CDs)

Cabarrus    43.6%   8   29.2%
Davidson    29.2%   5,8   24.4%
Forsyth      54.5%   5   46.8%
Guilford      52.8%   6   49.0%
Mecklenburg   55.0%   8,9   53.9%
Rowan     34.1%   5,8   22.9%

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Miles, can you finish your Amendment 1 by old CD maps. Also, comparing Obama/Romney to Amendment One may be more telling than Obama/McCain esp. in fast-growing areas.

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Miles, it would be good to see NC county maps with the CD lines superimposed to see the effectiveness of the gerrymander. Wake County in particular looks like a maximum Dem pack in NC-4.

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Miles, it would be good to see NC county maps with the CD lines superimposed to see the effectiveness of the gerrymander. Wake County in particular looks like a maximum Dem pack in NC-4.

I made this a while back:



Thats based on the Congressional vote.

I'm keeping the county-level tallies of the Pres-by-CD maps, so I can do one like that with the Presidential data after I calculate all the districts.

That is good, though I meant a county precinct map of split counties with the outline of the CD borders. BTW, on that map, Forsyth County looks reversed.

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That is good, though I meant a county precinct map of split counties with the outline of the CD borders. BTW, on that map, Forsyth County looks reversed.

Ah, ok.

Actually, Foxx lost her part of Forsyth county.

And Watt's opponent won inner-city Winston-Salem? (or is that actually red--it's hard to tell esp. given no higher-resolution for that map.)

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Not a map, but comparing Obama's and McCrory's performances in NC in 2008 and 2012

2008 - best Obama/McCrory and McCain/Perdue gap (half of sum of major party margin)

Obama/McCrory   

Mecklenburg (McCrory's home county)   12.14%   
Union   6.22%   
Orange   5.00%   
Cabarrus   4.90%   
Wake   4.16%   

McCain/Perdue

Tyrrell   20.32%
Columbus   20.13%
Pamlico   18.04%
Martin   17.91%
Jones   17.58%

Obama/McCrory in 2012

Mecklenburg   11.55%
Cabarrus   9.25%
Union   8.11%
Catawba   7.95%
Burke   7.59%

Romney/Dalton

Rutherford (Dalton's home county)   10.06%
Cherokee   4.83%
Columbus   3.65%
Camden   3.51%
Gates   2.90%

Largest swing to McCrory:

Pamlico   23.17%
Tyrrell   22.68%
Carteret   21.00%
Hyde   20.59%
Alleghany   20.28%

Smallest swing to McCrory:

Mecklenburg   0.39%
Durham   0.49%
Rutherford   0.73%
Orange   1.38%
Wake   3.14%

Largest swing towards Obama

Northampton   2.21%
Anson   2.20%
Halifax   2.01%
Robeson   1.82%
Hertford   1.38%
   
Largest swing towards Romney
   
Alleghany   7.35%
Mitchell   4.77%
Ashe   4.71%
Macon   4.47%
Surry   4.36%

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Under the old NC districts, Obama (2012) ran ahead of gay marriage by:

NC-1   31.4%
NC-10   25.5%
NC-12   22.4%
NC-8   20.8%
NC-2   19.3%
NC-7   16.3%
NC-13   8.0%
NC-11   7.6%
NC-3   5.3%
NC-5   4.8%
NC-9   0.5%
NC-6   -0.1%
NC-4   -4.3%

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Miles, I'd be interested in seeing a 2012 Obama/Romney/Amendment One map. (i.e. red = Obama, pro-gay, pink = Obama, anti-gay, etc.) I actually started this myself before my computer crashed.

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Miles, can you make a swing/trend map for KS-Sen, treating Orman as a Dem?

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What were the strongest swings?

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^ You can click the links and the counties show you the swing/trend values if you hover over them

Ellsworth, McPherson, Saline, Riley, Morris, and Douglas counties were all over 20% swing to Orman.

I misread the map and thought red was republican. Why is there more blue on the second map? Or is this compared to the state rather than the nation?