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Author Topic: historical reasons for each state's growth cycles  (Read 792 times)
freepcrusher
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« on: July 02, 2012, 02:38:54 pm »
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Alabama
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.11 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1950s (-0.95 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Arizona
Best Decade: 1990s (+1.52 Seats)
Reason: unemployed aerospace workers from CA moving to AZ maybe?
Worst Decade: 1930s (+.10 Seats)
Reason: The Depression?

Arkansas
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.28 Seats)
Reason: Wal-Mart, I'm guessing
Worst Decade: 1950s (-1.20 Seats)
Reason: IDK

California
Best Decade: 1940s (+7.87 Seats)
Reason: The War Industry
Worst Decade: 2000s (+0.14 Seats)
Reason: Housing Bubble

Colorado
Best Decade: 1990s (+0.89 Seats)
Reason: Probably lots of SoCal White flight
Worst Decade: 1920s (-0.19 Seats)
Reason: Farm Crisis maybe?

Connecticut
Best Decade: 1910s (+0.41 Seats)
Reason: IDK?
Worst Decade: 1970s (-0.52 Seats)
Reason: baby boomers moving out of the house?

Delaware
Best Decade: 1950s (+0.16 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1920s (+0.07 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Florida
Best Decade: 1970s (+4.20 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1910s (+0.43 Seats)
Reason: Maybe the state was seen as a backwater back then

Georgia
Best Decade: 1990s (+1.32 Seats)
Reason: The state at the time was seen as some kind of fundie zion
Worst Decade: 1920s (-1.58 seats)
Reason: IDK

Idaho
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.29 Seats)
Reason: Didn't a lot of Orange County types move up there around that time?
Worst Decade: 1920s (-0.20 Seats)
Reason: Farm Crisis?

Illinois
Best Decade: 1920s (+0.42 Seats)
Reason: Industrialization
Worst Decade: 1980s (-1.94 Seats)
Reason: Urban Decay, De-industrialization

Indiana
Best Decade: 1940s (+0.08 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1980s (-0.84 Seats)
Reason: De-industrialization

Iowa
Best Decade: 2000s (-0.23 Seats)
Reason: Growth around metro DM to balance out rural losses
Worst Decade: 1920s (-1.11 Seats)
Reason: Farm Crisis I'm guessing

Kansas
Best Decade: 2000s (-0.13 Seats)
Reason: Growth in Johnson County to offset losses elsewhere
Worst Decade: 1930s (-0.73 Seats)
Reason: Dust Bowl

Kentucky
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.14 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1950s (-1.16 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Louisiana
Best Decade: 1930s (+0.34 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1980s (-0.69 Seats)
Reason: Oil Bust I'm guessing

Maine
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.03 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1910s (-0.35 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Maryland
Best Decade: 1960s (+0.87 Seats)
Reason: growth in jobs in DC area
Worst Decade: 1970s (-0.30 Seats)
Reason: probably baby boomers growing up and suburbanization not being enough to offset population losses in Baltimore

Massachusetts
Best Decade: 1910s (-0.07 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1970s (-1.15 Seats)
Reason: De-industrialization

Michigan
Best Decade: 1920s (+2.11 Seats)
Reason: Boom of Auto Industry
Worst Decade: 1980s (-1.53 Seats)
Reason: Urban Decay and De-industrialization

Minnesota
Best Decade: 1930s (+0.12 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1920s (-0.71 Seats)
Reason: 1920s Farm Crisis?

Mississippi
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.10 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1910s (-1.13 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Missouri
Best Decade: 2000s (-0.21 Seats)
Reason: Population Growth in SWMO to balance out losses elsewhere?
Worst Decade: 1910s (-1.57 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Montana
Best Decade: 1910s (+0.48 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1920s (-0.35 Seats)
Reason: 1920s Farm Crisis?

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brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2012, 02:50:34 pm »
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This is really good.

Connecticut
Best Decade: 1910s (+0.41 Seats)
Reason: IDK?

Immigration from Europe.

Quote
Georgia
Worst Decade: 1920s (-1.58 seats)
Reason: IDK

Possibly the Great Migration.

Quote
Kentucky
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.14 Seats)

West Virginia also boomed in that decade, you'll find. Was it a good era for coal miners and associated industries and people having lots of children?

Quote
Massachusetts
Best Decade: 1910s (-0.07 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Immigration, industry, natural population growth

Quote
Mississippi
Worst Decade: 1910s (-1.13 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Possibly also WWI labor movements, Great Migration beginning, and cotton starting to decline, at least in labor intensity. See also Florida.

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freepcrusher
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« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2012, 02:57:41 pm »
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Nebraska
Best Decade: 2000s (-0.07 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1930s (-0.55 Seats)
Reason: Dustbowl

Nevada
Best Decade: 1990s (+0.98 Seats)
Reason: people who couldn't afford to live in CA maybe moved there?
Worst Decade: 1910s (-0.07 Seats)
Reason: IDK

New Hampshire
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.19 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1910s (-0.21 Seats)
Reason: IDK

New Jersey
Best Decade: 1920s (+1.38 Seats)
Reason: lots of children of immigrants leaving the lower east side?
Worst Decade: 1970s (-1.19 Seats)
Reason: baby boomers moving out of the house?

New Mexico
Best Decades: 1950s and 1970s (+0.33 Seats both times)
Reason: not sure about the 1970s but in the 50s i'm guessing it was a boom in military jobs
Worst Decade: 1910s (-0.07 Seats)
Reason: IDK

New York
Best Decade: 1920s (+1.99 Seats)
Reason: The Jazz Age
Worst Decade: 1970s (-5.31 Seats)
Reason: probably a combination between baby boomers moving out of the house, deindustrialization in upstate/western New York and urban decay in areas like Harlem, South Bronx, Bed-Sty

North Carolina
Best Decade: 2000s (+1.00 Seats)
Reason: Growth in knowledge industries
Worst Decade: 1950s (-0.71 Seats)
Reason: IDK

North Dakota
Best Decade: 2000s (-0.04 Seats)
Reason: boom in oil industry?
Worst Decade: 1940s (-0.32 Seats)
Reason: in the 30s, you had the excuse with the dust bowl. No idea the reason for this.

Ohio
Best Decade: 1910s (+1.16 Seats)
Reason: industrialization
Worst Decade: 1970s (-2.06 Seats)
Reason: deindustrialization and urban decay

Oklahoma
Best Decade: 1910s (+0.52 Seats)
Reason: oil boom?
Worst Decade: 1940s (-1.25 Seats)
Reason: see North Dakota

Oregon
Best Decade: 1940s (+0.81 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1950s (-0.11 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Pennsylvania
Best Decade: 1910s (-0.35 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade 1950s (-2.95 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Rhode Island
Best Decade: 1920s (-0.04 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1950s and 1970s (-0.21 Seats)
Reason: not sure about the 50s but in the 70s, it was deindustrialization

South Carolina
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.46 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1920s (-0.75 Seats)
Reason: IDK

South Dakota
Best Decade: 2000s (-0.02 Seats)
Reason: Growth in Sioux Falls to offset losses elsewhere?
Worst Decade: 1930s (-0.33 Seats)
Reason: Dustbowl

Tennessee
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.42 Seats)
Reason: Not sure. What is it with all these normally slow-growing southern states in the 1970s?
Worst Decade: 1950s (-0.88 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Texas
Best Decade: 1970s (+3.38 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1930s (+0.50 Seats)
Reason: Dustbowl

Utah
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.54 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1920s (-0.04 Seats)
Reason: Farm Crisis?

Vermont
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.03 Seats)
Reason: NY Expats moving there?
Worst Decade: 1910s (-0.23 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Virginia
Best Decade: 1940s (+0.77 Seats)
Reason: boom in wartime industries?
Worst Decade: 1920s (-0.90 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Washington
Best Decade: 1940s (+1.16 Seats)
Reason: boom in aircraft production during war era?
Worst Decade: 1920s (-0.03 Seats)
Reason: Farm Crisis?

West Virginia
Best Decade: 1910s (+0.25 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1950s (-1.30 Seats)
Reason: Not sure. It seems the upland south suffered terribly in the 50s

Wisconsin
Best Decade: 1960s (-0.14 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1980s (-0.48 Seats)
Reason: De-industrialization

Wyoming
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.19 Seats)
Reason: Oil Boom
Worst Decade: 1980s (-0.10 Seats)
Reason: Oil Bust
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« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2012, 03:36:55 pm »
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Florida
Best Decade: 1970s (+4.20 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1910s (+0.43 Seats)
Reason: Maybe the state was seen as a backwater back then

Not the only reason, but the answer to both is air conditioning. Florida was a slow growing backwater before the 60's or so, because it was too damn hot to live in. In the 50's almost every other southern state had more people then Florida did, and when air conditioning became a big thing in the late 60's/early 70's while all southern states grew by a lot, Florida was even cheaper and prettier then the other places in the south. Also, the 70s were a big time for all the southern states because thats around the time northern businesses decided to flee en masse south for cheaper labor costs.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2012, 03:43:34 pm »
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Florida
Best Decade: 1970s (+4.20 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1910s (+0.43 Seats)
Reason: Maybe the state was seen as a backwater back then

Not the only reason, but the answer to both is air conditioning. Florida was a slow growing backwater before the 60's or so, because it was too damn hot to live in. In the 50's almost every other southern state had more people then Florida did, and when air conditioning became a big thing in the late 60's/early 70's while all southern states grew by a lot, Florida was even cheaper and prettier then the other places in the south. Also, the 70s were a big time for all the southern states because thats around the time northern businesses decided to flee en masse south for cheaper labor costs.

not true at all. Florida has always been very fast growing

1910 3.56
1920 3.99
1930 5.22
1940 6.28
1950 8.04
1960 12.04
1970 14.55
1980 18.75
1990 22.68
2000 24.75
2010 26.54

the gain of 22.98 seats in the 435 era is second to only California.
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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2012, 04:04:36 pm »
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Minnesota
Best Decade: 1930s (+0.12 Seats)
Reason: IDK

I suspect Minnesota weathered (hah) the 1930s fairly well thanks to its northern location, so that's probably the result of migrants from Great Plains states.  I know it seems like half my Iowan relatives moved to Minnesota sometime around the 1930s.  The state government sometimes being avowedly socialist probably made it attractive to poor farmers Wink
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2012, 05:26:36 pm »
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Minnesota
Best Decade: 1930s (+0.12 Seats)
Reason: IDK

I suspect Minnesota weathered (hah) the 1930s fairly well thanks to its northern location, so that's probably the result of migrants from Great Plains states.  I know it seems like half my Iowan relatives moved to Minnesota sometime around the 1930s.  The state government sometimes being avowedly socialist probably made it attractive to poor farmers Wink

yep. Eddie Cochran who was a well known rockabilly singer, was from a family where his parents moved up to Minnesota from OK in the 1930s.
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« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2012, 08:36:39 pm »
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Florida
Best Decade: 1970s (+4.20 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1910s (+0.43 Seats)
Reason: Maybe the state was seen as a backwater back then

Georgia
Best Decade: 1990s (+1.32 Seats)
Reason: The state at the time was seen as some kind of fundie zion
Worst Decade: 1920s (-1.58 seats)
Reason: IDK

Mississippi
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.10 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1910s (-1.13 Seats)
Reason: IDK

South Carolina
Best Decade: 1970s (+0.46 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1920s (-0.75 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Virginia
Best Decade: 1940s (+0.77 Seats)
Reason: boom in wartime industries?
Worst Decade: 1920s (-0.90 Seats)
Reason: IDK

Not certain about Virgina, but in the other four states, the reason why those were their worst decades was certainly because of the boll weevil.

The boll weevil crossed the Rio Grande into Texas in the 1890s and spread.  It devastated the cotton fields, killing off sharecropping as it killed the cotton, and was one of the principal causes of the Great Migration of Negroes from the rural south to the urban north.
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« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2012, 10:17:10 am »
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Florida
Best Decade: 1970s (+4.20 Seats)
Reason: IDK
Worst Decade: 1910s (+0.43 Seats)
Reason: Maybe the state was seen as a backwater back then

Not the only reason, but the answer to both is air conditioning. Florida was a slow growing backwater before the 60's or so, because it was too damn hot to live in. In the 50's almost every other southern state had more people then Florida did, and when air conditioning became a big thing in the late 60's/early 70's while all southern states grew by a lot, Florida was even cheaper and prettier then the other places in the south. Also, the 70s were a big time for all the southern states because thats around the time northern businesses decided to flee en masse south for cheaper labor costs.

not true at all. Florida has always been very fast growing

1910 3.56
1920 3.99
1930 5.22
1940 6.28
1950 8.04
1960 12.04
1970 14.55
1980 18.75
1990 22.68
2000 24.75
2010 26.54

the gain of 22.98 seats in the 435 era is second to only California.

The numbers don't really refute me. About 2/3s of that growth came after AC became cheap enough to install in cars in the late 50's. Before then the only decade where Florida gained more then one seat was the 40's, and that's thanks to the massive growth in military personel and hangers-on from World War II.
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« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2012, 11:03:14 am »
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Georgia
Best Decade: 1990s (+1.32 Seats)
Reason: The state at the time was seen as some kind of fundie zion
Worst Decade: 1920s (-1.58 seats)
Reason: IDK

Actually, the 1990s were the start of the housing boom.  Georgia was (and still is) an extremely cheap place to live, and benefited from the same mass immigration from north to south that Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and (too a lesser extant) South Carolina and Alabama have.
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« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2012, 12:15:21 pm »
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what does the Jazz age have to do with NY's growth it most likely has to do with young immigrants settling down and having kids.
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« Reply #11 on: July 03, 2012, 06:43:48 pm »
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New Jersey
Best Decade: 1920s (+1.38 Seats)
Reason: lots of children of immigrants leaving the lower east side?
Worst Decade: 1970s (-1.19 Seats)
Reason: baby boomers moving out of the house?

Nope, just an ass-load of immigrants from Italy and Ireland. Then the massive decline in the state's urban areas.
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« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2012, 08:07:25 pm »
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New Jersey
Best Decade: 1920s (+1.38 Seats)
Reason: lots of children of immigrants leaving the lower east side?
Worst Decade: 1970s (-1.19 Seats)
Reason: baby boomers moving out of the house?

Nope, just an ass-load of immigrants from Italy and Ireland. Then the massive decline in the state's urban areas.

Yep, this is largely a factor of the explosive industrial growth of Newark and Jersey City from 1900-1930 (fueled largely by the Irish and Italian labor on the docks and factories) and then the collapse in aftermath of 67 Newark riots and racial tensions/white flight in general.
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« Reply #13 on: July 03, 2012, 11:41:43 pm »
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what does the Jazz age have to do with NY's growth it most likely has to do with young immigrants settling down and having kids.

yeah but the cultural attractions of the era probably brought a lot of people to the state.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #14 on: July 03, 2012, 11:42:54 pm »
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New Jersey
Best Decade: 1920s (+1.38 Seats)
Reason: lots of children of immigrants leaving the lower east side?
Worst Decade: 1970s (-1.19 Seats)
Reason: baby boomers moving out of the house?

Nope, just an ass-load of immigrants from Italy and Ireland. Then the massive decline in the state's urban areas.


didn't most immigration peter out around the start of WWI and pretty much stay relatively low until the 1970s?
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #15 on: July 03, 2012, 11:46:13 pm »
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New Jersey
Best Decade: 1920s (+1.38 Seats)
Reason: lots of children of immigrants leaving the lower east side?
Worst Decade: 1970s (-1.19 Seats)
Reason: baby boomers moving out of the house?

Nope, just an ass-load of immigrants from Italy and Ireland. Then the massive decline in the state's urban areas.

Yep, this is largely a factor of the explosive industrial growth of Newark and Jersey City from 1900-1930 (fueled largely by the Irish and Italian labor on the docks and factories) and then the collapse in aftermath of 67 Newark riots and racial tensions/white flight in general.

one thing I found interesting about New Jersey in the 1970s was that it was basically a sharp reversal of population trends that only happen every so often. In the 1950s the state gained 0.72 districts and in the 1960s it gained 0.61 districts.
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