Senate 2006...

[nick]

I found this at another board, but for the most part I agree with the possibilties included here.  What do you guys think of the list and some of the races you are looking fowards to?

VULNERABLE DEMOCRATS

WA: Cantwell (against Jennifer Dunn or Dino Rossi)
FL: Bill Nelson (against Katherine Harris, Mark Foley, or Ileana Ros-Lehtinen - - If Jeb decided to run he will be the GOP candidate)
NE: Ben Nelson (against Mike Johanns)

VULNERABLE REPUBLICANS

MO: Talent (against Jay Nixon, Joe Maxwell, Robin Carnahan, or Claire McCaskill.)

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

TN: Frist (retiring) - succeeded by Harold Ford Jr. (Dem) vs. Marsha Blackburn, Bob Corker, or Beth Harwell (Rep) - - I give Ford an edge because of his star power
MN: Dayton (against Mark Kennedy)
VT: Jeffords (probably safe, unless he retires) - succeeded by Deb Markowitz, Bill Sorrell, or Elizabeth Ready (Dem) vs. Jim Douglas or Brian Dubie (Rep)
MI: Stabenow (challenged by Candice Miller, Mike Rogers, or Nick Smith)
NY: Clinton (only vulnerable if challenged by Rudy Guiliani or George Pataki)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

PA: Santorum (against Barbara Hafer or Chris Heinz. If Bob Casey runs this race leans towards the Democrats)
VA: Allen (only vulnerable if challenged by Mark Warner)
MT: Burns (potentially vulnerable if a strong challenger emerges)
MS: Lott (whether he retires or not) - seriously challenged by Mike Moore

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA: Feinstein
ND: Conrad
WI: Kohl
IL: Durbin
MA: Kennedy
WV: Byrd
DE: Carper
NJ: Corzine (presumably elected Governor in 2005) - succeeded by Bob Menendez (Dem) vs. Christine Todd Whitman (Rep)
MD: Sarbanes (still a Dem hold if he retires)
CT: Lieberman (unless he retires, and is replaced by Nancy Johnson, Rob Simmons, or Chris Shays)
HI: Akaka (unless he or Inouye dies/resigns due to health problems, and Governor Lingle appoints Barbara Marumoto to fill the seat)
NM: Bingaman (although a GOP pickup if he retires and Heather Wilson runs for the open seat)

SAFE REPUBLICAN

AZ: Kyl
OH: DeWine
ME: Snowe
RI: Chafee
NV: Ensign
WY: Thomas (still a GOP hold if he retires, replaced by Barbara Cubin)
IN: Lugar (still a GOP hold if he retires, replaced by Pete Hostettler)
UT: Hatch (still a GOP hold if he retires, replaced by Nolan Karras, Chris Cannon, or Olene Walker)
TX: Hutchison (a GOP hold if she runs for Governor, replaced by Henry Bonilla, Rick Perry, or Kay Granger)

[nick]

If you guys dont agree with one tell me and Ill change it.

[A18]

The state of VI, eh?

[nick]

The state of VI, eh?

Fixed, sorry about that Phillip.  Whats your thoughts on the list?  In Particular Warner vs Allen if Warner decides to run?

[ATFFL]

I would put Dayon and Santorum in the lean area.

I think you are seriously overestimating Lott's vulnerability by calling it lean Democrat.

Whitman may be out of favor with teh current Republican regime.  I'm not so sure she will be running for anything in the near future.  I would call NJ safe dem unless there is a strong Republican challenger I don't know about.

Chaffee and Snowe should have comments about possible retirements losing the seat.

[Keystone Phil]

VULNERABLE REPUBLICANS

PA: Santorum (against Barbara Hafer, Bob Casey, or Chris Heinz)

I think you have it mixed up. Against Barbara Hafer, Santorum would be the clear favorite.

[nick]

Fixed it up a little bit.

[Keystone Phil]

Fixed it up a little bit.

Well...no. It is lean Republican but in a Casey vs. Santorum situation, it would be lean Dem.

[Akno21]

Nick, I don't think MD would swing GOP even if Steele were to run for an open seat.

[nick]

Well...no. It is lean Republican but in a Casey vs. Santorum situation, it would be lean Dem.

But as of right now with no clear front runner for the Democrats it leans Republican, right?  Hey Phil, lets say Casey does run.  Wouldnt it still lean Republican or almost be neutral due to Santorum being the incumbent?

[Keystone Phil]

Well...no. It is lean Republican but in a Casey vs. Santorum situation, it would be lean Dem.

But as of right now with no clear front runner for the Democrats it leans Republican, right?  Hey Phil, lets say Casey does run.  Wouldnt it still lean Republican or almost be neutral due to Santorum being the incumbent?

Right now it is looking good for Santorum.

If Casey runs, it's lean Dem. Casey would win it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

PA and RI are vulnerable.

[phk]

If Chafee is in danger of losing his seat, I'd forsee him pulling a Jeffords to stay safe.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Chafee is in danger of losing his seat, I'd forsee him pulling a Jeffords to stay safe.

One Democratic poll had him down 20 points against a moderate Democrat. As long as the Democrat isn't more conservative than Chafee, Chafee is in trouble.

[Defarge]

If Chafee is in danger of losing his seat, I'd forsee him pulling a Jeffords to stay safe.

One Democratic poll had him down 20 points.

DSCC Poll. 1/11-13. MoE 4.4% (No trend lines):

    Chafee (R) 32
    Langevin (D) 52

[Keystone Phil]

If Chafee is in danger of losing his seat, I'd forsee him pulling a Jeffords to stay safe.

One Democratic poll had him down 20 points.

DSCC Poll. 1/11-13. MoE 4.4% (No trend lines):

    Chafee (R) 32
    Langevin (D) 52

Yes, another DSCC poll showing one of their potential candidates with a huge lead. Once again, the DSCC put out a poll showing Hoeffel about to beat Specter.

[phk]

I think it'd be safe to assume if Chafee had a strong challenger, he'd change his affiliation.

[nick]

PA and RI are vulnerable.

Like Phil said.  If Casey runs it would become a vulnerable seat and in all likelyhood the Democrats would win.  But untill then no one can agree on who else besides Casey could beat Santourm so it remains his seat to lose.

So I should switch RI to vulnerable?  Who is the candidate likely to take over the seat?

[WMS]

I found this at another board, but for the most part I agree with the possibilties included here.  What do you guys think of the list and some of the races you are looking fowards to?


SAFE DEMOCRATIC


NM: Bingaman (although a GOP pickup if he retires and Heather Wilson runs for the open seat)

If (this) happens, the chaos level in NM will explode. And for those of who who don't think it'll affect you, guess how much money from the national parties will pour in here - NM-01 DOES hold the #1 and #3 slots of "most expensive house campaigns" (although that may have changed recently...? Well, NM-01 did hold those slots for quite some time in any event). And how many competitive seats are there in the U.S. to fuss over, anyway?