NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5

[krazen1211]

http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/civitas-poll-romney-leads-in-nc-after-court-ruling/
http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/chart2.pdf

In a poll taken June 29-July 1, 50 percent of voting age North Carolinians supported the former Massachusetts governor. President Obama was backed by 45 percent.

[kenyanobama]

http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/civitas-poll-romney-leads-in-nc-after-court-ruling/
http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/chart2.pdf

In a poll taken June 29-July 1, 50 percent of voting age North Carolinians supported the former Massachusetts governor. President Obama was backed by 45 percent.

I think they're being generous to Obama, but in before the libs go bonkers.

[MilesC56]

Well, its Civitas, though the partisan composition checks out to me.

In any case, poll entered.

[Gravis Marketing]

Well, its Civitas, though the partisan composition checks out to me.

In any case, poll entered.

Assuming any swing at all away from Obama from 2008 makes a poll showing Romney up 5 in NC reasonable.

[Jayhawker]

Civitas has been favorable to the GOP throughout this cycle, but this is an increase from a late-May poll that had Romney up only 2.

[MilesC56]

Civitas has been favorable to the GOP throughout this cycle, but this is an increase from a late-May poll that had Romney up only 2.

I actually think Civitas is becoming a credible pollster; we'll see if that holds up.

[Sasquatch]

I don't doubt that Romney is leading in NC, but how is Romney winning 64% of hispanics?

[True Federalist]

I don't doubt that Romney is leading in NC, but how is Romney winning 64% of hispanics?

Well first off, the number of Hispanics they polled is approximately 40, so that's around a 15% MoE even if their Hispanic sample was representative, which is doubtful.

[timothyinMD]

This poll seems spot on.  It's consistent with others showing Romney with a modest lead in NC, what seems off is the 3% response for "Other"

NC has one of the lowest rates of third party voting

[krazen1211]

Civitas has been favorable to the GOP throughout this cycle, but this is an increase from a late-May poll that had Romney up only 2.

I actually think Civitas is becoming a credible pollster; we'll see if that holds up.

Allegedly  SurveyUSA actually did the polling. They are a topnotch pollster.

[MilesC56]

Civitas has been favorable to the GOP throughout this cycle, but this is an increase from a late-May poll that had Romney up only 2.

I actually think Civitas is becoming a credible pollster; we'll see if that holds up.

Allegedly  SurveyUSA actually did the polling. They are a topnotch pollster.

Hmm...yeah, SUSA is good.

[Supersonic]

Lean Romney.

[vern1988]

North Carolina is no where near lean Romney, polls jump back and foward from Obama to Romney, therefore it is a toss-up state.

[BritishDixie]

The black turnout won't be as high this year, and that only just pushed Obama over the line, so lean Romney.

[vern1988]

Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded.

[BritishDixie]

Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded.

Sorry I was just going on what knowledge I had about why Obama won in 2008.

[FreedomFighter]

The black turnout won't be as high this year, and that only just pushed Obama over the line, so lean Romney.

More racism from BritishDixie. Tell me, are you a Klansman or somethign.

[vern1988]

Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded.

Sorry I was just going on what knowledge I had about why Obama won in 2008.

It is fine.

[vern1988]

The black turnout won't be as high this year, and that only just pushed Obama over the line, so lean Romney.

More racism from BritishDixie. Tell me, are you a Klansman or somethign.

I don't see any relation between a racist comment and what He said?

[FreedomFighter]

The black turnout won't be as high this year, and that only just pushed Obama over the line, so lean Romney.

More racism from BritishDixie. Tell me, are you a Klansman or somethign.

I don't see any relation between a racist comment and what He said?

He's suggesting blacks are dum, by saying that they're uncapable of voting for Obama.

[vern1988]

The black turnout won't be as high this year, and that only just pushed Obama over the line, so lean Romney.

More racism from BritishDixie. Tell me, are you a Klansman or somethign.

I don't see any relation between a racist comment and what He said?

He's suggesting blacks are dum, by saying that they're uncapable of voting for Obama.

No, what He said is a true statement, this year the black turn-out will not be as high. The excitement over electing the first black president is over so a lot of the black folks who only voted to elected Him will not turn out this year.

[Frodo]

Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded.

All of what you said is true, which indicates North Carolina will become more of a swing state in future elections.  What is in question is whether it will be enough to make a difference this year.  Given the lack of enthusiasm on the part of the base for President Obama (the support given him so far is most likely obligatory), the sheer frenzy by Republicans to get rid of him, the poor economy, and the fact this is still a conservative southern state -even more so than Virginia- I think Republicans can still pull one more rabbit out of the hat and win this state in November.  

[vern1988]

Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded.

All of what you said is true, which indicates North Carolina will become more of a swing state in future elections.  What is in question is whether it will be enough to make a difference this year.  Given the lack of enthusiasm on the part of the base for President Obama (the support given him so far is most likely obligatory), the sheer frenzy by Republicans to get rid of him, the poor econYomy, and the fact this is still a conservative southern state -even more so than Virginia- I think Republicans can still pull one more rabbit out of the hat and win this state in November.  

Oh, there is no doubt Romney could win there, but this doesn't make it lean Romney.

[Minnesota Mike]

No, what He said is a true statement, this year the black turn-out will not be as high. The excitement over electing the first black president is over so a lot of the black folks who only voted to elected Him will not turn out this year.

I call BS. Much of the polling I have seen has African Americans as the group most enthusiastic about voting in 2012. While there may not be the same first time thrill in voting for Obama in 2012 as there was in 2008 I think African Americans will have the Presidents back in 2012 and turnout.

[vern1988]

No, what He said is a true statement, this year the black turn-out will not be as high. The excitement over electing the first black president is over so a lot of the black folks who only voted to elected Him will not turn out this year.

I call BS. Much of the polling I have seen has African Americans as the group most enthusiastic about voting in 2012. While there may not be the same first time thrill in voting for Obama in 2012 as there was in 2008 I think African Americans will have the Presidents back in 2012 and turnout.

Maybe, but polls can be miss leading.