CNN: Romney crushing in swing states

[krazen1211]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/02/cnn-poll-health-care-ruling-has-not-impacted-race-for-white-house-so-far/


About a third of all Americans live in states that are not considered safe Republican or safe Democratic strongholds, including toss-ups states (like Florida and Ohio) as well as states that lean toward one presidential candidate but could ultimately wind up voting for his rival. In those 15 "battleground states," the poll indicates that Romney currently has a 51%-43% advantage over the president among registered voters, if the election were held today.



Great news for Mr. Romney

[tmthforu94]

It would be interesting to see what those 15 states are, as the same poll has Obama up 3 overall.

[Miles]

Do you intentionally make these headlines as misleading and hyperbolic as possible?


If anything, this article is a mixed bag for both candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ACA mandate affirmation upheld but no impact on swing states Obama still leads 49-46%.

[DrScholl]

Arizona, Indiana and Missouri were included as swing states, when they are not swing states. That heavily skews the aggregate.

Fail.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Arizona, Indiana and Missouri were included as swing states, when they are not swing states. That heavily skews the aggregate.

Fail.

So does that mean you are calling New Mexico, Michigan, and PA real swing states? Cuz those should be favouring Obama pretty good too.

[krazen1211]

It would be interesting to see what those 15 states are, as the same poll has Obama up 3 overall.

WI, PA, NM, MI

NV, CO, IA, OH, VA, FL, NH

AZ, MO, IN, NC

[DrScholl]

So does that mean you are calling New Mexico, Michigan, and PA real swing states? Cuz those should be favouring Obama pretty good too.

No. Technically, none of those should be on the list either. An aggregate of battleground states should be Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, which are the most competitive states.

[pbrower2a]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/02/cnn-poll-health-care-ruling-has-not-impacted-race-for-white-house-so-far/


About a third of all Americans live in states that are not considered safe Republican or safe Democratic strongholds, including toss-ups states (like Florida and Ohio) as well as states that lean toward one presidential candidate but could ultimately wind up voting for his rival. In those 15 "battleground states," the poll indicates that Romney currently has a 51%-43% advantage over the president among registered voters, if the election were held today.



Great news for Mr. Romney

1. Which are those 15 states?

Those that really were close in 2008?

GA, MT, MO, NC, IN, FL, OH

2. The one that would have been close except for the Favorite Son effect?

AZ

3. One that went for Obama by 7% but hadn't gone for any Democratic nominee since 1964

VA

4. Those that split on Dubya between 2000 and 2004 but were not close in 2008

IA NH NM

5. Those that were close in 2000 and 2004, but Bush lot them twice

MI PA WI

6. Hard to characterize

NV

No two elections are exactly alike.  Except in GA and MT, the Republicans have big problems in all of those states. 

 

[Likely Voter]

Havent we all agreed these swing state polls are pointless.

[pepper11]

Havent we all agreed these swing state polls are pointless.

This. These swing state crosstabs are WORTHLESS. 

[Joe Republic]

"Crushing"?  What happened to "dominating"? 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

"Crushing"?  What happened to "dominating"? 

He realized that using that term for good-looking men such as Mitt Romney was making him uncomfortable.

[All Along The Watchtower]

lol

[MorningInAmerica]

So does that mean you are calling New Mexico, Michigan, and PA real swing states? Cuz those should be favouring Obama pretty good too.

No. Technically, none of those should be on the list either. An aggregate of battleground states should be Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, which are the most competitive states.

I think his point is that if states like NM and PA are being sampled in this poll as "battle ground states," then we shouldn't nitpick about states like Arizona, Michigan, and Missouri being sampled. Keep in mind, Indiana was carried by the Democrats in 2008, and Missouri was just a couple thousand votes away from the same result.

[Tender Branson]

There was a Wall Street Journal poll recently that showed the opposite, Obama ahead by 8 in the swing states. But other than that, these subsamples are meaningless.

[MorningInAmerica]

The polls have really been all over the place on which party is more enthusiastic about voting this November.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Democrats - 59% at least very enthusiastic, 15% not too, or not at all enthusiastic
Republicans - 51% at least very enthusiastic, 24% not too, or not at all enthusiastic

Doubt the gap is really that large, but it should be a concern for Republicans if accurate.

[timothyinMD]

CNN's poll is completely questionable.  The 15 states they cite as "battleground states" where Romney is +8 were won by Obama by 6.  There is NO WAY IN HELL Romney is ahead in these 15 states by 8, but losing overall by 3.

And no, the fact that AZ, IN and MO are included does not skew the result.  they are just 3 of 15 states sampled

[Sbane]

If it's a subsample it's essentially meaningless. If the entire sample is composed of swing states, that would be a valid poll.

[timothyinMD]

If it's a subsample it's essentially meaningless. If the entire sample is composed of swing states, that would be a valid poll.

I can't tell based on the poll info provided.  My point is not that this poll proves Romney is going to win.  My point is that polling data is not very reliable when you break it down, at least in this case