AZ-02: OnMessage (R): Barber at 50%
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  AZ-02: OnMessage (R): Barber at 50%
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Author Topic: AZ-02: OnMessage (R): Barber at 50%  (Read 998 times)
Miles
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« on: August 22, 2012, 11:42:58 AM »

This was a McSally internal.

Ron Barber (D)- 50%
Martha McSally (R)- 45%
Not sure- 5%

400 LV, 4.9% MoE



Only 5% undecided seems a bit low to me.
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Zioneer
PioneerProgress
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2012, 11:59:00 AM »

Internals are super-biased, right? So Barber is a lot more ahead than this indicates?
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Meeker
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2012, 12:09:02 PM »

The numbers of internal polls aren't usually wrong (unless it's numbers released after a message test, of course). It's just that they don't usually release internal polls that reflect badly. An absence of an internal poll release says a lot.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2012, 01:45:32 PM »

This was a McSally internal.

Ron Barber (D)- 50%
Martha McSally (R)- 45%
Not sure- 5%

400 LV, 4.9% MoE



Only 5% undecided seems a bit low to me.

They did have a dry run with ad saturation with the special election, albeit with a different R.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2012, 01:53:00 PM »

Safe D. Focus on AZ-09 where the Democrats are running 'progressives'.
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2012, 02:37:03 PM »

Safe D. Focus on AZ-09 where the Democrats are running 'progressives'.

Or even in AZ-01 where Kirkpatrick is favored.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2012, 07:02:49 PM »

Safe D. Focus on AZ-09 where the Democrats are running 'progressives'.

Or even in AZ-01 where Kirkpatrick is favored.

Eh I don't like that district at all for the GOP. AZ-9 on the other hand has shifted well over 1% towards the GOP in terms of registration ever since Colleen Mathis enacted that vicious gerrymander, and the opposition is of the Darcy Burner/Manan Trivedi/Dan Seals 'progressive' type.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2012, 09:35:56 PM »

Safe D. Focus on AZ-09 where the Democrats are running 'progressives'.

Or even in AZ-01 where Kirkpatrick is favored.

Eh I don't like that district at all for the GOP. AZ-9 on the other hand has shifted well over 1% towards the GOP in terms of registration ever since Colleen Mathis enacted that vicious gerrymander, and the opposition is of the Darcy Burner/Manan Trivedi/Dan Seals 'progressive' type.

AZ-09 even went for John Kerry.  That district is at least lean Dem.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2012, 09:35:09 AM »

Safe D. Focus on AZ-09 where the Democrats are running 'progressives'.

Or even in AZ-01 where Kirkpatrick is favored.

Eh I don't like that district at all for the GOP. AZ-9 on the other hand has shifted well over 1% towards the GOP in terms of registration ever since Colleen Mathis enacted that vicious gerrymander, and the opposition is of the Darcy Burner/Manan Trivedi/Dan Seals 'progressive' type.

AZ-09 even went for John Kerry.  That district is at least lean Dem.

Of course. The GOPs best chance to win those types of districts, based on history, is to run against a 'progressive'.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2012, 10:40:02 AM »

Safe D. Focus on AZ-09 where the Democrats are running 'progressives'.

Or even in AZ-01 where Kirkpatrick is favored.

Eh I don't like that district at all for the GOP. AZ-9 on the other hand has shifted well over 1% towards the GOP in terms of registration ever since Colleen Mathis enacted that vicious gerrymander, and the opposition is of the Darcy Burner/Manan Trivedi/Dan Seals 'progressive' type.

AZ-09 even went for John Kerry.  That district is at least lean Dem.

Of course. The GOPs best chance to win those types of districts, based on history, is to run against a 'progressive'.
The thing is, in these kinds of partially suburban, historically Republican, recently Democratic at the presidential level places the Democratic winning coalition consists of a lot of voters who're still ready to vote for the right kind of Republican and often still identify as Republicans, and a lot of left-on-the-current-issues-of-the-day, progressive types who vote in Democratic primaries.
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