OH-16: Sutton up 3 in internal

[MilesC56]

From the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

The poll conducted by pollsters Normington, Petts & Associates shows Sutton ahead of Renacci by a 41 to 38 percent margin. Libertarian Jeff Blevins had 4 percent in the telephone survey of 400 likely general election voters. The poll conducted between June 26 and 28 had a 4.9 percent margin of error.

The undecideds are high, which makes sense, because both candidates are fairly new to the district; Renacci only represents 40% and Sutton only has 21% of the new seat.

Since this is an internal, they're probably both tied.

[kenyanobama]

Renacci by 12-15 easily. It's not 2008 anymore.

[TJ in Wisco]

Boy if Renacci loses in this seat, I'd have to imagine the GOP is in for a world of hurt in November. Facing an incumbent makes things more difficult, but this really ought to be a slam dunk race.

[MilesC56]

Boy if Renacci loses in this seat, I'd have to imagine the GOP is in for a world of hurt in November. Facing an incumbent makes things more difficult, but this really ought to be a slam dunk race.

Well, they're both incumbents; but, yeah, Renacci is still more of an incumbent.

I think the GOP House delegation will do pretty well in Ohio. The ceiling for Democrats this year in Ohio is 6 seats, in my mind; they'll win the 4 liberal districts plus Charlie Wilson in CD6 and Sutton here.

[asexual trans victimologist]

Renacci by 12-15 easily. It's not 2008 anymore.

It's also not 2010.

[Senator X]

Boy if Renacci loses in this seat, I'd have to imagine the GOP is in for a world of hurt in November. Facing an incumbent makes things more difficult, but this really ought to be a slam dunk race.

Well, they're both incumbents; but, yeah, Renacci is still more of an incumbent.

I think the GOP House delegation will do pretty well in Ohio. The ceiling for Democrats this year in Ohio is 6 seats, in my mind; they'll win the 4 liberal districts plus Charlie Wilson in CD6 and Sutton here.

OH-6 is definitely our best shot and if it had the old OH-6 portions of Athens County Johnson would've probably been a mild underdog, but since it doesn't the race is probably close to a dead heat (although I think Wilson will narrowly win, as there are going to be a lot of Romney/Wilson votes here and even a pretty good number of Romney/Brown votes).  While the fact that OH-16 is looking like a dead heat is a welcome surprise (and at this point I think Sutton could win), I think Boccieri would've probably been a stronger candidate had he run.  On the other hand, it sounds like (from what I've read about him) that Renacci has developed a reputation for being somewhat inattentive to local issues/constituent service and I know he was involved in some sort of fund-raising scandal, so maybe these things are canceling out some of Renacci's advantages to a certain extent. 

And speaking of Boccieri, I think he would've had a real shot at winning if he had run against Gibbs (who is not a good fit for his district).  In fact, that seat will probably be very competitive once the Democrats find a strong candidate, but they didn't this year, so Gibbs will be fine this cycle.

[Torie]

This CD (OH-16) has a 5.75% GOP PVI, so if Sutton wins it, she's a dominatrix. I don't see that happening, unless Renacci has been a fail as an incumbent. The Pubs even went to the trouble of reaching down with a little prong to the south to pick up heavily Pub North Canton to help anneal the CD to the Pub column. The Pub gerrymanderers knew very well what they were doing, and with the exception of the Dayton based CD, where they needlessly threw a Pub point away (probably due to the Austria political extinction issue), did it extremely well. It is one of the most skillful gerrymanders in the nation.

[Senator X]

This CD (OH-16) has a 5.75% GOP PVI, so if Sutton wins it, she's a dominatrix. I don't see that happening, unless Renacci has been a fail as an incumbent. The Pubs even went to the trouble of reaching down with a little prong to the south to pick up heavily Pub North Canton to help anneal the CD to the Pub column. The Pub gerrymanderers knew very well what they were doing, and with the exception of the Dayton based CD, where they needlessly threw a Pub point away (probably due to the Austria political extinction issue), did it extremely well. It is one of the most skillful gerrymanders in the nation.

I'm surprised this is even as close as it seems to be (regardless of who wins), both for the reason you mentioned and because Sutton never struck me as someone with enough cross-party appeal to win a district like this (unlike Boccieri, who I could definitely see upsetting Renacci, even though it would still be a tough fight).  That being said, Renacci is has been a bit of a fail as an incumbent.  I remember reading an article in 2011 that was talking about how (as is often the case after large wave elections) some of the Republicans elected 2010 had already gained reputations within D.C. political circles for being complete screw-ups (and were viewed as such by both parties), but that very few people outside of D.C. and the representatives' own districts were familiar with their antics.  I don't remember all of the people mentioned, but I do remember that Renacci, Steven Palazzo, and Joe Walsh (who wasn't nearly as well-known at the time) were mentioned as examples of this. 

Btw, while I agree with Torie that the OH map was one of the most skillful gerrymanders of the cycle, I'd argue that the maps biggest weakness (since Renacci's problems are really his fault, not the map's) is that it doesn't give Gibbs an ideal district.  I don't think he's that great a fit for the district and I could see him losing if the Democrats recruited a top-tier candidate or if he found himself running in a Democratic wave year.

[Torie]

The problem jdp is that some CD in the area needed to neutralize Canton, and the NE corner CD was already marginal, the Ohio River CD as drawn could not have its Pub pad diluted because of all of its Tory Dem swing voters whose vacillating loyalty to the Pub cause needs a Dem social liberal or person of color or both to be able to bank on it, and Ohio 16 of course needed the Pub parts of Stark County rather than the Dem parts, so that left the Gibbs seat to do the job. Every Pub CD in this part of the state that did not itself otherwise require  propping up. needed to neutralize something  Yes, it is unfortunate that Gibbs lives off in the opposite corner of the CD in empty hyper Pub Holmes County rather than having had his roots in the Canton area, but such is life. The only other alternative is to do a lot more county, city and township chops, and make the Youngstown CD more octopus-like to get it down to Canton as well as the Akron area via Kent with a prong to suck up Alliance (as per my original Pub gerrymander to the max map), but that wasn't happening (it was tough enough to get the mapped passed as it was).  

I take the longer view on these matters. If a Pub does not fit a GOP leaning CD, or no CD because he or she is a fail, that weak member of the Pub herd is culled out, but the successful Dem carnivore is leashed and has to be a moderate, or that Dem will in turn become relatively easier prey down the road if the Pubs get around to nominating a better candidate (seemingly increasingly difficult these days I understand).  So from a Pub oriented Pub policy making point of view, in the longer term, life is still beautiful.

[Talleyrand]

Wasn't she poised for defeat in 2010 until her opponent's sex scandals went public? And that was in a D+5 district. How is she supposed to beat a self-funder with no scandals in a R+7 district?

Frankly, Dems won't pick up any seats in Ohio this year. I don't see any future opportunities barring the retirements of popular, young incumbents like Mike Turner or Steve Latourette. Otherwise, we'll need scandal or a wave to take any back. And we will never get a majority this decade.

[Senator X]

Wasn't she poised for defeat in 2010 until her opponent's sex scandals went public? And that was in a D+5 district. How is she supposed to beat a self-funder with no scandals in a R+7 district?

Frankly, Dems won't pick up any seats in Ohio this year. I don't see any future opportunities barring the retirements of popular, young incumbents like Mike Turner or Steve Latourette. Otherwise, we'll need scandal or a wave to take any back. And we will never get a majority this decade.

Nah, Ganley wasn't gonna win either way, though the sex scandal obviously didn't help.

[krazen1211]

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/08/sutton-internal.php

Sutton 42
Renacci 40
Libertarian 16



Yeah, likely Renacci.

[krazen1211]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/08/low-profile_libertarian_candid.html


A Libertarian candidate who sought the same congressional seat as incumbents Betty Sutton and Jim Renacci has decided to drop his longshot bid for office.




Great news! Sutton is a goner!

[MilesC56]

Well, good thing for Sutton that the map could very well be redrawn in 2014.

[TJ in Wisco]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/08/low-profile_libertarian_candid.html


A Libertarian candidate who sought the same congressional seat as incumbents Betty Sutton and Jim Renacci has decided to drop his longshot bid for office.




Great news! Sutton is a goner!

And to boot this guy is also from Wadsworth, the same town as Renacci. This definitely hurts Sutton.

[Senator X]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/08/low-profile_libertarian_candid.html


A Libertarian candidate who sought the same congressional seat as incumbents Betty Sutton and Jim Renacci has decided to drop his longshot bid for office.




Great news! Sutton is a goner!

And to boot this guy is also from Wadsworth, the same town as Renacci. This definitely hurts Sutton.

Gotta agree.  I still could see Renacci blowing this (it really shouldn't be close given the district and Sutton's lack of cross-over appeal, but I get the impression that even many of Renacci's supporters regard him as a pretty incompetent Congressman).  I think that Boccieri would've been a much better candidate than Sutton for this district, although I don't know if he could've beaten Sutton in the Democratic primary.  That being said, this definitely makes things much harder for Sutton (who really isn't that good a fit for the district, but more power to her for making it close).  However, I have noticed that Renacci has yet to release any of his own internals to counter Sutton's which makes me wonder if his polling is also showing him trailing Sutton.  Btw, Renacci could be really screwed if the maps are redrawn for 2014, b/c I don't think he could win a competitive race (barring a Republican wave year) in a real swing district.