An early look at 2006 House races

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Jersey

Unless someone retires, New Jersey isn't likely to be very interesting at House level next year; my guess is that the only half way competative race will be NJ-7, although even then I'd be suprised if Ferguson lost (barring a House GOP meltdown).
If someone retires, the South Jersey districts (except for NJ-1 o/c) could get *very* competative with the right candidates (and as this is NJ money and mafia "legitimate businessmen" connections)

[zorkpolitics]

Why even bother discussing incumbents?  Gerrymandering and incumbency has assured >99% will be re-elected to the House.
Open seats are the only place where competition results in a chance to switch parties. 
Examples: in 2002 even with redistricting, only 2% of incumbents lost, but 20% of the open seats changed parties
In 2004 2% of the incumbents lost (most due to redistricting in TX), but 17% of the open seats changed parties

2006 may be a banner year for party switches, as already 53 Republicans and 38 Democrats have hinted at running for higher office or retiring.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Retire06.htm

[Jake]

Hopefully Kanjorski can retire so PA-11 can become competitive for a change.  BTW, has any else heard anything about Kanjorski retiring. I saw one little blurb in the paper back in October, that mainly said he was just going term by term.

[Keystone Phil]

Hopefully Kanjorski can retire so PA-11 can become competitive for a change.  BTW, has any else heard anything about Kanjorski retiring. I saw one little blurb in the paper back in October, that mainly said he was just going term by term.

Think we could really have a chance in PA 11?

[Jake]

Hopefully Kanjorski can retire so PA-11 can become competitive for a change.  BTW, has any else heard anything about Kanjorski retiring. I saw one little blurb in the paper back in October, that mainly said he was just going term by term.

Think we could really have a chance in PA 11?

Unless the Luzerne Cty Democrats implode even more, I'd say at the very least it leans Democrat.  I can't think of a big name Republican besides Mayor Barletta who ran in '02 and the Minority Commishioner Urban who isn't extremely popular.  State Senator Lemmond could run for the GOP.  He is quite uninspiring and dry, but would be decent.

The Democrats will have Kevin Blaum, who I would give the advantage in a primary to.  State Senator Robert Mellow could run.  Also, State Rep Ed Staback is a conservative Democrat who could win easily.  He is quite old and influential in the PADems so he may not run.

The most likely race IMO, would be Blaum vs. Urban, mostly due to name recognition.  The result of that would be 57-63% Blaum & 37-43% for Urban.  The best GOP candidate is probably Lemmond, though I doubt he'd give up his safe Senate seat for a likely loss.

[Smash255]

New York

Long Island: Chances are that the GOP will try to regain a seat it never should have lost (NY-1) but although another competative race is likely, the chances are that they'll fail again... although they'll probably win it back when Bishop retires.
The other Long Island races will be pretty dull unless an incumbent retires...

NYC: I don't see any of these flipping any time soon. Could be some brutal primaries though.

Upstate: NY-27 has the potential to be competative although it depends what sort of record Higgins builds up in Congress. NY-29 was as close as it was because Kuhl had a messy divorce or something similer (can't remember exactly)... I don't think the Democrats will seriously target him though (it's very much a Republican district). Still, stranger things have happend.
Another suprisingly close district was NY-26... I'm not sure why. Can anyone who knows the district (Buffalo/Rochester suburbs by the look of it) tell me why?
Most districts in Upstate NY could become fairly competative if the incumbent retires.

I don't see Bishop retiring any time soon.  Also Long Island as a whole has been trending leftward over the past 15 years, so even when Bishop retires it probably will stay in Dem hands.   district 2, Isreal will hold it till he retires will stay in Dem hands after.  District 3 unfortunley King will hold it till he retires, could flip when he does retire.  Dostrict 4 McCarthy will hold it till she retires, most likley will stay in Dem hands after.  District 5.  Ackermam just won by 43%, what do you think???  STRONG STRONG Dem for a very long time

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why even bother discussing incumbents?  Gerrymandering and incumbency has assured >99% will be re-elected to the House.
Open seats are the only place where competition results in a chance to switch parties. 
Examples: in 2002 even with redistricting, only 2% of incumbents lost, but 20% of the open seats changed parties
In 2004 2% of the incumbents lost (most due to redistricting in TX), but 17% of the open seats changed parties

2006 may be a banner year for party switches, as already 53 Republicans and 38 Democrats have hinted at running for higher office or retiring.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Retire06.htm

I'm looking at all the races where possible... but your right in that big changes are often the result of one party being seriously unlucky with retirements+a swing away from that party.
I think you have to look for vunerable incumbents, but most incumbents are very safe (often more because of incumbency than gerrymandering.

[Keystone Phil]

Hopefully Kanjorski can retire so PA-11 can become competitive for a change.  BTW, has any else heard anything about Kanjorski retiring. I saw one little blurb in the paper back in October, that mainly said he was just going term by term.

Think we could really have a chance in PA 11?

The best GOP candidate is probably Lemmond, though I doubt he'd give up his safe Senate seat for a likely loss.

How funny is this? You bring up Lemmond giving up a safe seat. Read this http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=13849532&BRD=2185&PAG=461&dept_id=418216&rfi=6

Looks like Lemmond might be retiring.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pennsylvania

West: Unless an incumbent retires (and so far only Murtha has hinted at that... and thanks to the '02 gerrymandering there's no way the Dems can lose that district) it'll take a strong/star candidate to make any district there competative... talking of which there's a possibility that Heinz will run against Hart in PA-4. Unless there's a sizeable trend against the GOP I'd be suprised if she lost, but as it would generate a lot of media attention, weird things *could* happen.

Central and North East: Kanjorski's hinted that he might retire; under the old lines the district would have been fairly competative, but the addition of Scranton in the '02 gerrymander makes a repeat of 1980 very unlikely.
Other than that...

South East: The award for "Congressman most likely to be job hunting after 2006" goes to Gerlach. If an incumbent comes very close to losing to an underfunded nobody, that incumbent is in serious trouble.
As for Schwartz, Dent and Fitzpatrick... it really depends what sort of record they build up in Congress (both votes and constituency work). It's too early to tell right now.
A district that could be interesting is Weldon's if he retires: it's over 60% Republican but voted for Kerry (I think so anyways) last year and had a Democratic congressman in the late '70's and early '80's.

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania

West: Unless an incumbent retires (and so far only Murtha has hinted at that... and thanks to the '02 gerrymandering there's no way the Dems can lose that district) it'll take a strong/star candidate to make any district there competative... talking of which there's a possibility that Heinz will run against Hart in PA-4. Unless there's a sizeable trend against the GOP I'd be suprised if she lost, but as it would generate a lot of media attention, weird things *could* happen.

Central and North East: Kanjorski's hinted that he might retire; under the old lines the district would have been fairly competative, but the addition of Scranton in the '02 gerrymander makes a repeat of 1980 very unlikely.
Other than that...

South East: The award for "Congressman most likely to be job hunting after 2006" goes to Gerlach. If an incumbent comes very close to losing to an underfunded nobody, that incumbent is in serious trouble.
As for Schwartz, Dent and Fitzpatrick... it really depends what sort of record they build up in Congress (both votes and constituency work). It's too early to tell right now.
A district that could be interesting is Weldon's if he retires: it's over 60% Republican but voted for Kerry (I think so anyways) last year and had a Democratic congressman in the late '70's and early '80's.

Schwartz (D-13) and Dent (R-15) will probably go nowhere.  Look for Gerlach (R-6) and Fitzpatrick (R-8) as potential job hunters come 2006.  I know Schwartz has an incredible staff and she did write to our local paper already about how glad she is to serve us (touchy).  You are also right about Weldon's seat.  A lot of those 60% are RINOs who vote Dem other than Weldon anyway.   

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania

West: Unless an incumbent retires (and so far only Murtha has hinted at that... and thanks to the '02 gerrymandering there's no way the Dems can lose that district) it'll take a strong/star candidate to make any district there competative... talking of which there's a possibility that Heinz will run against Hart in PA-4. Unless there's a sizeable trend against the GOP I'd be suprised if she lost, but as it would generate a lot of media attention, weird things *could* happen.

Central and North East: Kanjorski's hinted that he might retire; under the old lines the district would have been fairly competative, but the addition of Scranton in the '02 gerrymander makes a repeat of 1980 very unlikely.
Other than that...

South East: The award for "Congressman most likely to be job hunting after 2006" goes to Gerlach. If an incumbent comes very close to losing to an underfunded nobody, that incumbent is in serious trouble.
As for Schwartz, Dent and Fitzpatrick... it really depends what sort of record they build up in Congress (both votes and constituency work). It's too early to tell right now.
A district that could be interesting is Weldon's if he retires: it's over 60% Republican but voted for Kerry (I think so anyways) last year and had a Democratic congressman in the late '70's and early '80's.

Schwartz (D-13) and Dent (R-15) will probably go nowhere.  Look for Gerlach (R-6) and Fitzpatrick (R-8) as potential job hunters come 2006.  I know Schwartz has an incredible staff and she did write to our local paper already about how glad she is to serve us (touchy).  You are also right about Weldon's seat.  A lot of those 60% are RINOs who vote Dem other than Weldon anyway.   

The big question that Dems refuse to answer: Who can you put up to beat Fitz?

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania

e... talking of which there's a possibility that Heinz will run against Hart in PA-4. Unless there's a sizeable trend against the GOP I'd be suprised if she lost, but as it would generate a lot of media attention, weird things *could* happen.

It would have to be very weird. She's a well-liked Congresswoman and her new spot on Ways and Means will help her.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would have to be very weird. She's a well-liked Congresswoman and her new spot on Ways and Means will help her.

True (I'd be suprised if she lost, barring a big national trend and/or a scandel o/c).
Still, I'd expect it'll be the closest race she's had in that district (which isn't saying a lot...)

[Keystone Phil]

It would have to be very weird. She's a well-liked Congresswoman and her new spot on Ways and Means will help her.

True (I'd be suprised if she lost, barring a big national trend and/or a scandel o/c).
Still, I'd expect it'll be the closest race she's had in that district (which isn't saying a lot...)

It probably would be one of the closest. I wouldn't expect the 65-35 type turnouts but I don't see her receiving less than 54% of the vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would have to be very weird. She's a well-liked Congresswoman and her new spot on Ways and Means will help her.

True (I'd be suprised if she lost, barring a big national trend and/or a scandel o/c).
Still, I'd expect it'll be the closest race she's had in that district (which isn't saying a lot...)

It probably would be one of the closest. I wouldn't expect the 65-35 type turnouts but I don't see her receiving less than 54% of the vote.

She got something like 59% in 2000

[Keystone Phil]

It would have to be very weird. She's a well-liked Congresswoman and her new spot on Ways and Means will help her.

True (I'd be suprised if she lost, barring a big national trend and/or a scandel o/c).
Still, I'd expect it'll be the closest race she's had in that district (which isn't saying a lot...)

It probably would be one of the closest. I wouldn't expect the 65-35 type turnouts but I don't see her receiving less than 54% of the vote.

She got something like 59% in 2000

I honestly don't see Chris Heinz making the race much closer.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I honestly don't see Chris Heinz making the race much closer.

"Much" is a relative term. As is "closer" ;-)

If he ran I'm fairly sure it would be the closeest race she's ever had in PA-4... but this does not mean that it will be close... like I said barring a large national swing away from the GOP (either nationally or just in Pennsylvania) or some sort of scandel she's safe enough.

[Wakie]

It would have to be very weird. She's a well-liked Congresswoman and her new spot on Ways and Means will help her.

True (I'd be suprised if she lost, barring a big national trend and/or a scandel o/c).
Still, I'd expect it'll be the closest race she's had in that district (which isn't saying a lot...)

It probably would be one of the closest. I wouldn't expect the 65-35 type turnouts but I don't see her receiving less than 54% of the vote.

She got something like 59% in 2000

I honestly don't see Chris Heinz making the race much closer.

Phil, you're from Eastern PA, right?  In Western PA there is a widespread feeling that had he lived, John Heinz would have been President.  The man has more or less been sainted.  His son would ABSOLUTELY make a race out of  this if not win outright.

[Keystone Phil]

It would have to be very weird. She's a well-liked Congresswoman and her new spot on Ways and Means will help her.

True (I'd be suprised if she lost, barring a big national trend and/or a scandel o/c).
Still, I'd expect it'll be the closest race she's had in that district (which isn't saying a lot...)

It probably would be one of the closest. I wouldn't expect the 65-35 type turnouts but I don't see her receiving less than 54% of the vote.

She got something like 59% in 2000

I honestly don't see Chris Heinz making the race much closer.

Phil, you're from Eastern PA, right?  In Western PA there is a widespread feeling that had he lived, John Heinz would have been President.  The man has more or less been sainted.  His son would ABSOLUTELY make a race out of  this if not win outright.

I understand that John Heinz is loved out in western PA but I don't think Chris Heinz would be loved as much as his father. The name can only take you so far and I really doubt it would take Chris to Congress.

[DarthKosh]

It would have to be very weird. She's a well-liked Congresswoman and her new spot on Ways and Means will help her.

True (I'd be suprised if she lost, barring a big national trend and/or a scandel o/c).
Still, I'd expect it'll be the closest race she's had in that district (which isn't saying a lot...)

It probably would be one of the closest. I wouldn't expect the 65-35 type turnouts but I don't see her receiving less than 54% of the vote.

She got something like 59% in 2000

I honestly don't see Chris Heinz making the race much closer.

Phil, you're from Eastern PA, right?  In Western PA there is a widespread feeling that had he lived, John Heinz would have been President.  The man has more or less been sainted.  His son would ABSOLUTELY make a race out of  this if not win outright.

A Heinz hasn't been elected in PA politics in over 12 years.

[WMS]

From the January 28, 2005 D.C. Political Report:

A New New Mexico?: If U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) decides against seeking a fifth term in 2006, the result could be open races in all three of New Mexico's Congressional Districts. U.S. Representatives Heather Wilson (R-NM), Steve Pearce (R-NM) and Tom Udall (D-NM) are all consider strong possibility [sic] in a open Senate contest.


Yipe - if that happened, the airwaves will become unsafe due to all the political advertising! O_O

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yipe - if that happened, the airwaves will become unsafe due to all the political advertising! O_O

Especially if you live in the Albuquerque area... like you do... I hope for your sake that it doesn't get negative (hah!)

[KEmperor]

New York

Long Island: Chances are that the GOP will try to regain a seat it never should have lost (NY-1) but although another competative race is likely, the chances are that they'll fail again... although they'll probably win it back when Bishop retires.
The other Long Island races will be pretty dull unless an incumbent retires...

NYC: I don't see any of these flipping any time soon. Could be some brutal primaries though.

Upstate: NY-27 has the potential to be competative although it depends what sort of record Higgins builds up in Congress. NY-29 was as close as it was because Kuhl had a messy divorce or something similer (can't remember exactly)... I don't think the Democrats will seriously target him though (it's very much a Republican district). Still, stranger things have happend.
Another suprisingly close district was NY-26... I'm not sure why. Can anyone who knows the district (Buffalo/Rochester suburbs by the look of it) tell me why?
Most districts in Upstate NY could become fairly competative if the incumbent retires.

I don't see Bishop retiring any time soon.  Also Long Island as a whole has been trending leftward over the past 15 years, so even when Bishop retires it probably will stay in Dem hands.   district 2, Isreal will hold it till he retires will stay in Dem hands after.  District 3 unfortunley King will hold it till he retires, could flip when he does retire.  Dostrict 4 McCarthy will hold it till she retires, most likley will stay in Dem hands after.  District 5.  Ackermam just won by 43%, what do you think???  STRONG STRONG Dem for a very long time

No, I agree with Al.  If not for the stupidity of Grucci, NY-1 would be in GOP hands.  It's the most conservative district on the island.  However, I do agree with you that Bishop isn't going anywhere, and it's really his seat to lose.  Districts 2, 3, 4, and 5 are all holds until the incumbant retires at least.  We will see what the demographics look like when they retire or move on.

[Wakie]

It would have to be very weird. She's a well-liked Congresswoman and her new spot on Ways and Means will help her.

True (I'd be suprised if she lost, barring a big national trend and/or a scandel o/c).
Still, I'd expect it'll be the closest race she's had in that district (which isn't saying a lot...)

It probably would be one of the closest. I wouldn't expect the 65-35 type turnouts but I don't see her receiving less than 54% of the vote.

She got something like 59% in 2000

I honestly don't see Chris Heinz making the race much closer.

Phil, you're from Eastern PA, right?  In Western PA there is a widespread feeling that had he lived, John Heinz would have been President.  The man has more or less been sainted.  His son would ABSOLUTELY make a race out of  this if not win outright.

I understand that John Heinz is loved out in western PA but I don't think Chris Heinz would be loved as much as his father. The name can only take you so far and I really doubt it would take Chris to Congress.

The name kicks in the door for him.  The throw in his step-father's Presidential campaign organization (and contacts) in the area and that gets him even further.  Add on his personal charisma (I've met the guy, he has a lot of it) and you have a real race.

Oh, and to DarthKosh, a Heinz hasn't run in 12 years ... but the name is revered highly.

[Smash255]

New York

Long Island: Chances are that the GOP will try to regain a seat it never should have lost (NY-1) but although another competative race is likely, the chances are that they'll fail again... although they'll probably win it back when Bishop retires.
The other Long Island races will be pretty dull unless an incumbent retires...

NYC: I don't see any of these flipping any time soon. Could be some brutal primaries though.

Upstate: NY-27 has the potential to be competative although it depends what sort of record Higgins builds up in Congress. NY-29 was as close as it was because Kuhl had a messy divorce or something similer (can't remember exactly)... I don't think the Democrats will seriously target him though (it's very much a Republican district). Still, stranger things have happend.
Another suprisingly close district was NY-26... I'm not sure why. Can anyone who knows the district (Buffalo/Rochester suburbs by the look of it) tell me why?
Most districts in Upstate NY could become fairly competative if the incumbent retires.

I don't see Bishop retiring any time soon.  Also Long Island as a whole has been trending leftward over the past 15 years, so even when Bishop retires it probably will stay in Dem hands.   district 2, Isreal will hold it till he retires will stay in Dem hands after.  District 3 unfortunley King will hold it till he retires, could flip when he does retire.  Dostrict 4 McCarthy will hold it till she retires, most likley will stay in Dem hands after.  District 5.  Ackermam just won by 43%, what do you think???  STRONG STRONG Dem for a very long time

No, I agree with Al.  If not for the stupidity of Grucci, NY-1 would be in GOP hands.  It's the most conservative district on the island.  However, I do agree with you that Bishop isn't going anywhere, and it's really his seat to lose.  Districts 2, 3, 4, and 5 are all holds until the incumbant retires at least.  We will see what the demographics look like when they retire or move on.

I helped voted Grucci out:).  I was @ Stony Brook at the time, and lived on campus so I voted there & voted for Bishop back in 02.  District 1 is the most conservative district on the Island, and Grucci did blow it for himself, but much like the rest of the Island, the district as a whole is moving leftward.  5 will be safe dem till we are both long dead (even if they take out the Queens portion, the Nassau portion of district 5 is also heavily dem).  2,3,4 are holds till at least retirement.  3 (my district) might be the most vulnerable after the incumbents retire depending on how much the overall leftward swing continues.  not that 3 would automatically become a Dem pickup when King retires, but it probably has a better chance of flpping than districts 2 & 4, and nothing is going to make 5 flip