An early look at 2006 House races

[nini2287]

It would have to be very weird. She's a well-liked Congresswoman and her new spot on Ways and Means will help her.

True (I'd be suprised if she lost, barring a big national trend and/or a scandel o/c).
Still, I'd expect it'll be the closest race she's had in that district (which isn't saying a lot...)

It probably would be one of the closest. I wouldn't expect the 65-35 type turnouts but I don't see her receiving less than 54% of the vote.

She got something like 59% in 2000

I honestly don't see Chris Heinz making the race much closer.

Phil, you're from Eastern PA, right?  In Western PA there is a widespread feeling that had he lived, John Heinz would have been President.  The man has more or less been sainted.  His son would ABSOLUTELY make a race out of  this if not win outright.

I understand that John Heinz is loved out in western PA but I don't think Chris Heinz would be loved as much as his father. The name can only take you so far and I really doubt it would take Chris to Congress.

The name kicks in the door for him.  The throw in his step-father's Presidential campaign organization (and contacts) in the area and that gets him even further.  Add on his personal charisma (I've met the guy, he has a lot of it) and you have a real race.

Oh, and to DarthKosh, a Heinz hasn't run in 12 years ... but the name is revered highly.

Joe Paterno is also a Pennsylvania legend, and we all saw how well his son did this year

[Wakie]

Joe Paterno is also a Pennsylvania legend, and we all saw how well his son did this year

4 points here.

1) If Scott Paterno had run for football coach he would have had a much better chance because that is what his old man does.  Heinz was in politics.

2) Paterno was a total newcomer to politics.  Heinz was heavily involved in his stepfather's Presidential bid (especially on the local level in Pittsburgh) and has a massive political network.  Paterno has a massive football network.  These are not the same thing.

3) I've also met Scott Paterno.  He's a fat duchebag with about 4 brain cells left and zero charisma.  Chris Heinz has a lot of natural charisma.

4) Despite all of this, Paterno still had a chance.

[nini2287]

Joe Paterno is also a Pennsylvania legend, and we all saw how well his son did this year

4 points here.

1) If Scott Paterno had run for football coach he would have had a much better chance because that is what his old man does.  Heinz was in politics.

2) Paterno was a total newcomer to politics.  Heinz was heavily involved in his stepfather's Presidential bid (especially on the local level in Pittsburgh) and has a massive political network.  Paterno has a massive football network.  These are not the same thing.

3) I've also met Scott Paterno.  He's a fat duchebag with about 4 brain cells left and zero charisma.  Chris Heinz has a lot of natural charisma.

4) Despite all of this, Paterno still had a chance.

Even though Paterno was a terrible candidate, the fact that even with a great name and a should be GOP district, he couldn't even break 40% of the vote.

[WMS]

Yipe - if that happened, the airwaves will become unsafe due to all the political advertising! O_O

Especially if you live in the Albuquerque area... like you do... I hope for your sake that it doesn't get negative (hah!)

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! *gasp*

Good one, Al! It'll be the equivalent of nuclear war down here if that scenario comes to pass. It's a good thing I don't watch much television anyway...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maryland, DC, Delaware

Nowt interesting going on: MD has been gerrymandered to the point of zero competative districts (one of very, very few states where this has actually happend. I hope that it's not the start of a trend...) and Castle is as safe as... well a castle actually, in Delaware... although if he retires there could be a very competative race (maybe, gasps, Dela-where will finally get some national attention?)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Virginias

West Virginia

Unless Byrd decides to retire from the Senate (which doesn't look all that likely) they'll only be one interesting House race in WV next year, WV-2. Former State Party chair, Callaghan, has announced he's running for Congress, last year's candidate (Wells) has been raising his profile in the eastern half of the district... and despite saying that voters don't want to be bothered by more campaigning for a while yet, Capito is still fundraising and don't be suprised if she starts voting like a Democrat on certain economic issues more than she already does...

Virginia

Unless an incumbent retires (and it looks like Moron[/b] Moran might) there's no way a VA seat flips... and seeing as how Moron always underpreforms in his district...
If one of the Reps. for the non-gerrymandered rural districts retires there'd be an extremely competative race, but that looks unlikely right now.