Northern Territory, Australia - 25 August 2012

[Smid]

The Northern Territory will go to the polls on 25 August 2012.

Antony Green has his website on the Territory election, including a pendulum and candidate biographies.

There are likely to be large swings noted on election night... not because of any major scandals, but simply because of the size of the electorates (Antony Green notes on his blog piece on the redistribution that average enrolment is 4,838 voters, so a few hundred voters changing their minds can result in large swings). That said, the small electorates also favour incumbents because it's easier to build up a personal following.

Here's a map of the Territory (bigger version in the Gallery), with notional margins estimated by Antony Green, based on last election's results and the boundaries determined at the redistribution. There are two uncontested electorates: Arnhem in the North-East and Namatjira in the South. Both were held by Labor, however the Member for Macdonnell (as Namatjira was called prior to the redistribution) became an independent and then joined the CLP and will be the CLP candidate for Namatjira at this election.

[Vote UKIP!]

I wouldn't be surprised if CLP wins this year, given the general trend towards the Liberals in NSW and Queensland.

[You kip if you want to...]

I wouldn't be surprised if CLP wins this year, given the general trend towards the Liberals in NSW and Queensland.

CLP landslide, infact.

[Smid]

When Labor won about a decade ago, it was the first Labor government in 25 years. There are two ways of looking at this, either it's more challenging for Labor to won due to vote dispersion, or Territory elections strongly favour incumbents. If I remember correctly, last election was almost an upset, with a strong swing to the CLP materialising after the election was called, and almost resulting in a hung parliament or even a CLP government.

[Frodo]

Assuming Labor finds itself in the minority in the Northern Territory after this election -which seems the most likely outcome, particularly with the carbon tax being implemented- what states will they still control?  Tasmania? 

[You kip if you want to...]

Assuming Labor finds itself in the minority in the Northern Territory after this election -which seems the most likely outcome, particularly with the carbon tax being implemented- what states will they still control?  Tasmania? 

Tasmania, where they're gonna go down in flames.
The ACT, see above.
South Australia - could actually go well. They were reelected in 2010 on 48% 2PP and that's what they're polling today and the new premier seems fairly popular (compared to the national ALP). The wildcard there I guess is if the Liberal leader gets axed.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Assuming Labor finds itself in the minority in the Northern Territory after this election -which seems the most likely outcome, particularly with the carbon tax being implemented- what states will they still control?  Tasmania? 

Tasmania, where they're gonna go down in flames.
The ACT, see above.
South Australia - could actually go well. They were reelected in 2010 on 48% 2PP and that's what they're polling today and the new premier seems fairly popular (compared to the national ALP). The wildcard there I guess is if the Liberal leader gets axed.

I just looked at recent polling in Tasmania - what is going on there to cause such a catastrophic swing against Labor and the Greens? The Liberals don't look like they've expanded support outside of their base either, this is strange. 

[Platypus]

The NT/Federal relationship isn't very clear cut at all. If Labor do lose up there, it won't be because of federal labor.

As far as the ACT goes, if Labor win, it will be because of Federal labor.In Tasmania it's a case of 'it's time'.

[minionofmidas]

Tasmania following Australian national mood swings? That's rather unusual.

Why is the ALP not contesting Namatjira? Still friendly with the incumbent despite his changing sides or what? How high is the Aboriginal share of the population there - 70%?

[ObserverIE]

Why is the ALP not contesting Namatjira? Still friendly with the incumbent despite his changing sides or what? How high is the Aboriginal share of the population there - 70%?

According to this, they are contesting Namatjira. Both it and Arnhem had been Labor walkovers at the last election.

(I await the arrival of some neo-feudal loon to complain about the use of a divisive Aboriginal name in place of the historic McDonnell.)

[Smid]

Tasmania following Australian national mood swings? That's rather unusual.

Why is the ALP not contesting Namatjira? Still friendly with the incumbent despite his changing sides or what? How high is the Aboriginal share of the population there - 70%?

Sorry, in the original post, where I used "there are two uncontested electorates" I meant there are two uncontested electorates visible on the map (with the map showing previous election results). I guess it would have been clearer to have said "there were two uncontested electorates at the last election." Namatjira was called McDonnell at the last election and was acclaimed because only the Labor candidate (incumbent) nominated. She has subsequently switched sides.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Considering the last election was a victory by the skin of the teeth, I fully expect the CLP to steamroll the ALP.

As to the other ALP controls... the ACT goes to polls later this year... I actually expect it to be pretty close, but the Liberal primary vote in the ACT is generally around 30% (so the lowest Liberal primary vote in any jurisdiction)... I'm expecting the Greens to retain the balance of power, which means the ALP will remain in power.
 

[Smid]

The news this morning was saying that the election is expected to be extremely close.

I don't think anybody bothers to poll up there, and electorate size is miniscule, making for potentially big swings. Antony Green has an interesting piece, comparing Territory and Federal elections by booth.

And if anyone wants to tune in and watch the count tomorrow night, The ABC will be live streaming and removing the geoblock.

[Platypus]

So far, looks like the CLP are holding everything they had, with all the in-doubt seats being labor's last time around.

[Talleyrand]

So far, looks like the CLP are holding everything they had, with all the in-doubt seats being labor's last time around.

They've gained both Arafura and Daly already. I think a CLP win can be projected pretty easily at this point unless Labor can take Sanderson.

Update- Antony Green says 15 CLP, 9 ALP, 1 Gerry Wood

[minionofmidas]

So far, looks like the CLP are holding everything they had, with all the in-doubt seats being labor's last time around.

They've gained both Arafura

An 80% Aboriginal, open seat where the CLP put up an Aboriginal candidate and Labor did not. I approve of this CLP gain. -_-

EDIT: Huge swing (and narrowish gain) in Arnhem, another hugely Aboriginal seat. With no such racial voting issue - indeed the incumbent was not only Aboriginal but also minister for a bunch of minor departments including Indigenous Development. This seems to be a case of the Labor government pissing off the Natives big time?

FURTHER EDIT: Doesn't affect all Indigenous, outback seats though. Namatjira looks like a CLP hold too.

[Talleyrand]

So far, looks like the CLP are holding everything they had, with all the in-doubt seats being labor's last time around.

They've gained both Arafura

An 80% Aboriginal, open seat where the CLP put up an Aboriginal candidate and Labor did not. I approve of this CLP gain. -_-

EDIT: Huge swing (and narrowish gain) in Arnhem, another hugely Aboriginal seat. With no such racial voting issue - indeed the incumbent was not only Aboriginal but also minister for a bunch of minor departments including Indigenous Development. This seems to be a case of the Labor government pissing off the Natives big time?

Yeah, looks like four gains in the bush, but none in Darwin for the CLP. Arnhem, Arafura, Daly, and Stuart all losses for the Henderson Government.

Warren Snowdon should be very worried in Lingiari next year.

[Platypus]

The Rioli's are one of Australia's most prominent indigenous families, Lewis.

With such small electorates and strong communities, we really shouldn't be calling seats until at least 3/4 of the votes are in, as we learnt last time. One booth can make all the difference, especially in seats like Arafura, where Melville Island will go very strongly for Rioli, as Bathurst Island did for the CLP.

Labor have certainly lost the election, but I wouldn't be surprised if the final result is 13-11-1, rather than 16-8-1.

[Talleyrand]

The Rioli's are one of Australia's most prominent indigenous families, Lewis.

With such small electorates and strong communities, we really shouldn't be calling seats until at least 3/4 of the votes are in, as we learnt last time. One booth can make all the difference, especially in seats like Arafura, where Melville Island will go very strongly for Rioli, as Bathurst Island did for the CLP.

Labor have certainly lost the election, but I wouldn't be surprised if the final result is 13-11-1, rather than 16-8-1.

Well, it does look Stuart might be held by Labor after all, but it seems pretty hard for the gap to be turned around in the other three, especially Daly.

[minionofmidas]

The Rioli's are one of Australia's most prominent indigenous families, Lewis.

Shush. "Rioli" is so obviously Italian that I do not need to doublecheck.

[morgieb]

The Rioli's are one of Australia's most prominent indigenous families, Lewis.

With such small electorates and strong communities, we really shouldn't be calling seats until at least 3/4 of the votes are in, as we learnt last time. One booth can make all the difference, especially in seats like Arafura, where Melville Island will go very strongly for Rioli, as Bathurst Island did for the CLP.

Labor have certainly lost the election, but I wouldn't be surprised if the final result is 13-11-1, rather than 16-8-1.

Will Cyril go to politics once his AFL career is over?

To all those who say it was close...... 4th election in a row we've lost.

[Talleyrand]

The Rioli's are one of Australia's most prominent indigenous families, Lewis.

With such small electorates and strong communities, we really shouldn't be calling seats until at least 3/4 of the votes are in, as we learnt last time. One booth can make all the difference, especially in seats like Arafura, where Melville Island will go very strongly for Rioli, as Bathurst Island did for the CLP.

Labor have certainly lost the election, but I wouldn't be surprised if the final result is 13-11-1, rather than 16-8-1.

Will Cyril go to politics once his AFL career is over?

To all those who say it was close...... 4th election in a row we've lost.

And the 2PP was easily in the double digits for the CLP. Maybe the ACT election will break the trend for a while until Labor loses another seven elections in a row (Western Australia, Federal, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria (possibly), NSW, and Queensland). If Labor somehow loses in the ACT, that could be twelve election losses in a row.

[Platypus]

14 seats clearly CLP, 8 clearly labor, 1 Independent, 2 undecided.

Stuart could go either way, but I'd lean towards a very narrow CLP win. Arafura will also go right down to the line, but my tip would be a very narrow Labor win. Both could go CLP, both could go Labor.

In the end though, it doesn't particularly matter, the CLP are the new territory government.

[Smid]

EDIT: Counting has concluded and the results have been declared:

2012 Northern Territory Election - 2CP Results


As always, bigger version in the gallery.

[Novelty]

Thanks for the map Smid.  I'm surprised by how deep blue the former seat of McDonnell is though... Alison surely must command a lot of respect.

Where are the figures from though?  I'm surprised that Stuart has been called for the CLP.