My UK Election Predictions

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Latest Guardian/ICM Poll
Labour 40 (I was wrong, we have hit 40 again)
Conservatives 31
Lib Dems 21

Which equals a majority of 156, with a Tory net loss.

With Conservative targetting, LD targetting, less pro-Labour tactical voting and the traditional overestimation of Labour in the polls probably means its a majoirty of 100-120 is more likley with 40% than a 150+ majoirty.

I said about 100 a while ago... I think I'll stick to that

[Silent Hunter]

Done any more Peter?

I'm putting all my predictions in an Excel Document.

[Peter]

I've put the London predictions up because of an outside request for them to be done.

Index Page

[Peter]

I've updated the Wales page and am presently working on the West Midlands page.

Comments, as ever, welcome.

[Ben.]

West Midlands page.

Wolverhampton - Very good Labour performance in the locals

Brum Hodge Hill - Excellent Local MP in Lyiam Byrne who will romp home.

Brum Yardley - Messy but probably a LD gain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wolverhampton - Very good Labour performance in the locals

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Stunning actually... the local Tories had been bragging about how they were going to win overall control *sns*

[Democratic Hawk]

Apparently, my constituency - City of Durham - is the Lib Dem's top Labour target since the Liberal Democrats gained control of the council back in 2003

The result in 2001 was:

Steinberg (Lab) 23,254
Woods (LD) 9,813
Cartmell (Con) 7,167
Williamson (UK Ind) 1,252

A Labour majority of 13,441 (32.40%) - the Lib Dems needing a 16.20% swing to gain it

Gerry Steinberg is retiring and we have a new Labour candidate

In the Euro Elections (2004) Labour were just over 500 votes ahead of the Lib Dems

I think Labour will hold the seat by around 6,000 (there will some loss in Gerry's personal vote) - but turnout will be crucial on the day. If the city wards outpoll the district wards to the south and west of the city, then we're in a tough race

Dave

[Ben.]

I think Labour will hold the seat by around 6,000 (there will some loss in Gerry's personal vote) - but turnout will be crucial on the day. If the city wards outpoll the district wards to the south and west of the city, then we're in a tough race
 

Agreed, its more dicey than Newcastle Central which is another LD target (though i very much doubt they'll win it)... but Labour fortunes rest on getting the former mining villages out to vote otherwise as you say it will go down to the wire.