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| | |-+  The Next Four Years
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Question: Who Should be Speaker of the House?
Eric Cantor   -3 (37.5%)
Kevin McCarthy   -2 (25%)
Other   -3 (37.5%)
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Total Voters: 8

Author Topic: The Next Four Years  (Read 5340 times)
NHI
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« Reply #50 on: July 18, 2012, 09:31:43 pm »
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Very nice update! Smiley Thank you for taking my suggestions.

Anytime, and I like where it's going b/c of it.
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« Reply #51 on: July 19, 2012, 06:44:10 am »
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CNN: DEMOCRATIC RACE TOO CLOSE

O'Malley: 26.9%
Biden: 25.8%
Cuomo: 21.1%
Schweitzer: 16.4%
Warren: 7.8%

"A close race between Martin O'Malley and the Vice President." -- John King.

"A tough one for Andrew Cuomo, who many saw as the inevitable nominee, but tonight's results are proving that this campaign is over." -- James Carville

"Can the party rally around Joe Biden?" -- John King.

"Yes, but I think the enthusiasm is with other candidates, Joe Biden is too connected with the Obama Administration." -- James Carville.

"Look, President Obama's approval rating currently is at fifty percent, the economy is chugging along, this race is winnable for the Democrats with the right candidate and message." -- John Avalon.

"I am ending my bid for the White House and endorsing Sen. Kelly Ayotte to be the nominee of our party and next President of the United States."

"A surprise endorsement by Paul Ryan." -- John King.

"We knew he'd be out after a poor showing tonight, but I think there is a growing consensus around Kelly Ayotte as the candidate to nominate. She has a stellar voting record, she has the name recognition, and she's a woman." -- Alex Castellanos

"That maybe true, but if you put her up against any of our Democratic candidates it's going to be a wash for the Republicans. She's too rightwing. -- Donna Brazile.

"CNN is just learning that the Associated Press has called the race in New Hampshire for Governor O'Malley, but we are not yet comfortable to make a projection yet, because of the closeness." -- John King.

11:28

CNN BREAKING NEWS: BIDEN WINS NH PRIMARY

Biden: 26.6%
O'Malley: 26.2%
Cuomo: 21.9%
Schweitzer: 16.4%
Warren: 7.8%

HEADLINES:

Politico: NH: Ayotte's Landslide; Biden's Squeaker
NYT: Enter Biden, Exit Cuomo
Boston Globe: Cuomo: The Once and Unlikely

South Carolina: Republicans
Jindal: 28%
Ayotte: 27%
Thune: 23%
Paul: 15%
Undecided: 7%

South Carolina: Democrats
Biden: 30%
O'Malley: 24%
Cuomo: 19%
Schweitzer: 18%
Undecided: 9%

"Governor Cuomo is vowing to remain in the race, but we are getting word from his campaign that he maybe dropping out after his dismal showing in New Hampshire." -- John King.

"Well Elizabeth Warren has dropped out, Cuomo will probably be the next to go. Unless Brian Schweitzer pulls some victory in South Carolina, this is a Biden and O'Malley race." -- James Carville

O'Malley hits the trail in South Carolina
"I respect the Vice President, but we need to look to the future, we need new ideas, new energies."

Christie backs Ayotte
"Get out there South Carolina, get out there and see that this woman is victorious in this primary and is the next President of the United States!"
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« Reply #52 on: July 19, 2012, 07:10:47 am »
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I hope Cuomo makes a comeback. Biden is too old o be the nominee. O'Malley or Schweitzer are cool though. Biden would've been great 20 years ago, but he's like 73 in 2016.
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« Reply #53 on: July 19, 2012, 08:32:38 am »
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"I'll say it: The Vice President is not up to the task of being President, and I believe if nominated he'll sink the party against Ayotte, Jindal or Thune. I can take them on and I can win!"

"This new attitude by Governor Cuomo is by energizing and potentially damaging. In-fighting is never good for a party, and our party seems to always bear the brunt of it when it does occur." -- James Carville.

"Cuomo wants the nomination. He went from first to second in Iowa and then to third in New Hampshire. He sees South Carolina as his last stand. He got Schweitzer on his tail and O'Malley and Biden ahead." -- John Avalon

Too Old?
"Vice President Joe Biden caught napping on job, following a ceremony at the White House today, prompting speculation about his age and bringing up the question, should he be President?"

"Biden's been sleeping on the job for eight years, let's not encourage it for four more!"

"Look the camera caught him at a bad time, so I'm not going to jump all over him for it, but it does make me wonder if he is up to the task of running and possibly leading as President."

Is Biden too Old to be President?
Yes: 55%
No: 35%

Clinton stumps for Cuomo in Charlotte
"Make him the comeback kid South Carolina."

Haley's Surprise: Endorses Ayotte

O'Malley and Cuomo fight for 1st in SC
South Carolina: Democrats
O'Malley: 29%
Cuomo: 27%
Biden: 21%
Schweitzer: 20%

The Comeback Kid
Cuomo: 31%
O'Malley: 27%
Schweitzer: 22%
Biden: 18%

Republican Race Too Close To Call
Jindal: 30%
Ayotte: 28%
Thune: 23%
Paul: 17%

"A comeback for Andrew Cuomo, and he lives to fight another day." -- John King.

"Biden's fourth place finish, ends his campaign. O'Malley and Cuomo will be battling out in Nevada next, then Florida. Schweitzer could pull an upset in Nevada, but it's either going to be Cuomo or O'Malley." -- Donna Brazile.

"In South Carolina, Ayotte and Jindal are battling it out, with Thune trailing in third." -- Alex Castellanos.

"And looking at the numbers now, Senator Ayotte has taken the lead over Bobby Jindal, in a state many thought he'd win easily." -- John King.

Ayotte: 30%
Jindal: 29%
Thune: 24%
Paul: 16%

"Now it appears Governor Jindal has reclaimed the lead, and it's building." -- John King.

Jindal: 33%
Ayotte: 29%
Thune: 22%
Paul: 14%

Bobby Jindal Triumphs in South Carolina
Jindal: 35%
Ayotte: 29%
Thune: 20%
Paul: 13%

Florida Poll: Democrats
Cuomo: 33%
O'Malley: 24%
Schweitzer: 21%
Biden: 19%

Biden Backs Cuomo
"My bid has come to an end, but I am backing a man who will rally our party and ride us to victory in November and that is Governor Cuomo."
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« Reply #54 on: July 19, 2012, 09:15:35 am »
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O'Malley's gonna win. Except for 1988 and 1992 (Iowa Senator Tom Harkin ran, so it doesn't count) whoever win Iowa on the Democratic side usually gets the nomination.
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« Reply #55 on: July 19, 2012, 02:54:07 pm »
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I am very much enjoying this timeline...AYOTTE 2016!!!
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« Reply #56 on: July 19, 2012, 04:50:58 pm »
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Florida Republican Poll:
Jindal: 35%
Ayotte: 33%
Thune: 18%
Paul: 10%


Head-to-Head Matchup:
Ayotte v. Cuomo:
Ayotte: 46%
Cuomo: 46

Ayotte v. O'Malley:
Ayotte: 47%
O'Malley: 44%

Jindal v. Cuomo:
Jindal: 43%
Cuomo: 45%

Jindal v. O'Malley:
Jindal: 45%
O'Malley: 46%
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« Reply #57 on: July 21, 2012, 07:19:56 am »
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Paul, Schweitzer Wins Nevada
Paul: 30.0%
Thune: 28.7%
Ayotte: 24.8%
Jindal: 14.5%

Schweitzer: 44.6%
O'Malley: 33.8%
Cuomo: 21.5%

Rubio Backs Ayotte; "The Agent of Change for America"
"I had the honor of being in the freshman class when we arrived in the Senate back in 2011. I've watched lead in any capacity and have no reservations. Senator Ayotte must be the next President of the United States of America."

Florida Republicans
Ayotte Triumphs in Florida
Ayotte: 34.8%
Jindal: 32.0%
Thune: 21.4%
Paul: 9.8%

Cuomo Beats O'Malley
Cuomo: 47. 7%
O'Malley: 30.5%
Schweitzer: 19.8%

"Ayotte's now won two of the four contests, and a big state like Florida helps her going into Super Tuesday." -- John Avalon.

"What about Rand Paul?" -- John King.

"Rand Paul's win in Nevada a few weeks ago changes nothing." -- James Carville.

"Andrew Cuomo was the big winner tonight in Florida, how does do going forward?" -- John King.

"Cuomo took off the gloves and hammered him. Let's see what changes on Super Tuesday. I suspect Cuomo is not going squash this momentum." -- James Carville.

GOP MAP: States Won
Ayotte: NH, FL
Thune: IA
Paul: NV
Jindal: SC

Democrats Map: States Won
Cuomo: SC, FL
O'Malley: IA
Schweitzer: NV
Biden: NH

Super Tuesday:
OK
MO
CO
NM
MN
MI
IN
MT
NJ
ME
CT
MA
RI
VT
VA
MS
AL
GA
AR
LA
AK
IL
MD
DE
DC
NE
SD

Ayotte:
VT, CT, RI, MA, ME NJ, IN, MN, MI, IL, VA

Jindal:
LA, AR, GA, MS, AL, MO, NM, OK

Thune:
CO, NE, SD, MT

Paul:
AK

Republican Map: States Won on Super Tuesday

Cuomo:
NM, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, ME, MO, OK, GA, AR, AL, MS, CO, IN, LA

O'Malley:
VA, MD, DE, DC,  MI, MN, AK

Schweitzer:
MT, SD, NE

Democrat Map: States Won on Super Tuesday
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« Reply #58 on: July 21, 2012, 08:47:03 am »
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Ayotte better not beat out Hillary for first female president. Jindal needs to make a come back, and quick.
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« Reply #59 on: July 21, 2012, 08:50:53 am »
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I see we have rather similar timelines. Tongue

Great job though; this is easily your best yet.
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« Reply #60 on: July 23, 2012, 05:59:30 am »
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Schweitzer Ends Bid, Backs O'Malley

O'Malley Hits Cuomo, calls his a "closet conservative."

"He is grasping at straws. It's sad, but true. Next week Arizona and Pennsylvania have their say, and if we win those two I believe our momentum will be unstoppable.

"The race between O'Malley and Cuomo is getting extreme. Both could hurt the party's chances in November if they don't knock it off." -- James Carville.


Pennsylvania: Democrats

Cuomo's Slam dunk
Cuomo: 51.9%
O'Malley: 47.6%

Arizona: Democrats
Cuomo: 54.4%
O'Malley: 44.3%

Arizona: Republicans
Jindal: 50.0%
Ayotte: 36.6%
Thune: 11.4%

Pennsylvania: Republicans (Too Close)
Ayotte: 44.6%
Jindal: 42.4%
Thune: 12.1%
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« Reply #61 on: July 23, 2012, 09:16:43 am »
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Pennsylvania is hard to know for republicans, I could see Ayotte pulling it out.
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« Reply #62 on: July 23, 2012, 11:36:53 am »
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Ayotte's Photo Finish
Pennsylvania:
Ayotte: 44.0%
Jindal: 42.9%
Thune: 12.1%

The Icing on the Cake; Obama Endorses Cuomo
"We as a party must rally behind Governor Cuomo and come together. Not when there is still much to do. Not when we have families to look out for, and health care to keep in tact. To build an economy for all Americans, not those at the very top. I ask you to join with me and support this man, Andrew Cuomo, the next President of the United States."

"Obama certainly puts a lot on the line by endorsing Cuomo, but I think he looks at it from this point. He has the momentum and he wants to play the king maker. He reportedly met with both men and made his decision to endorse Governor Cuomo a few days ago. This is about his legacy more than anything." -- James Carville.

"On the Republican side, Ayotte has won Pennsylvania. Now with Thune dropping out and endorsing Ayotte there is a building momentum for Jindal to step aside. Now there are some more states left like Texas and North Carolina, but even if he wins, Ayotte's lead is growing bigger, not smaller." -- Alex Castellanos.

New York, Ohio, Texas:

"CNN projects that Andrew Cuomo will win New York by a landslide. Adding to that he will sweep the states of Texas and Ohio tonight." -- John King

New York:
Cuomo: 83.5%
O'Malley: 16.4%

Texas:
Cuomo: 67.9%
O'Malley: 31.1%

Ohio:
Cuomo: 60.0%
O'Malley: 38.9%

Closing the Deal?
Cuomo Beams after triumphing in all three contests, but O'Malley presses on.

New York: Republicans
Ayotte: 66.2%
Jindal: 33.1%

Ohio: Too Close to Call
Ayotte: 50.0%
Jindal: 49.4%

Texas:
Jindal: 58.8%
Ayotte: 40.2%

"All eyes are on Ohio as Senator Ayotte and Governor Jindal battle it out." -- John King

Ayotte pulls out a win in Ohio, calls it: "The Changing Point in the Campaign."
Ohio:
Ayotte: 50.2%
Jindal: 49.0%

CNN BREAKING NEWS: O'MALLEY MEETS WITH CUOMO
"We'll be talking again in a few more days."

"At this point it seems that Governor O'Malley sees the writing on the wall and is getting out, possibly looking for one of three things. A spot on the ticket, a cabinet post, or having Cuomo help retire some of his campaign debt. Either way he's done." -- James Carville.

O'MALLEY BIDS ADIEU
"My campaign is over. Now is the time to come together and unite for victory with Governor Cuomo as a our candidate and defeat whoever the radical Republicans put up against us, be it Ayotte or Jindal. We'll win in November."

Jindal Heads to NC, WV, KY and TN; Ayotte looks to Wrap it Up
"We're still in this fight. Senator Ayotte would be wise to focus on the upcoming primary states, than looking at transitioning to the White House."

GOP NOMINATION::
Ayotte: 50%
Jindal: 47%

"I've kept quiet as long as I could, but I feel I must intervene for the sake of the party in November. I am endorsing Bobby Jindal for President. We don't need another northeastern, moderate Republican. We lost in 2012, we'll lose in 2016. When are we going to wake up!"

"We as a country have a stark choice in November, but presently we as a party have a choice to make for November. Either we go the conservative root, or we go with someone who tries to hide the fact that she is a conservative. She prefers to drop the association and I ask you, is that the type of candidate we want going up against Cuomo in November?"

Jindal v. Cuomo
Cuomo: 48%
Jindal: 44%

Ayotte v. Cuomo
Cuomo: 46%
Ayotte: 44%

Who is More Conservative?
Jindal: 52%
Ayotte: 46%

Obama Approval Rating:
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 39%

3 Battleground States: Ayotte v. Cuomo

Ohio:
Cuomo: 48%
Ayotte: 46%

Florida:
Ayotte: 46%
Cuomo: 45%

Virginia:
Ayotte: 49%
Cuomo: 44%

3 Battleground States: Jindal v. Cuomo

Ohio:
Cuomo: 49%
Jindal: 44%

Florida:
Cuomo: 46%
Jindal: 46%

Virginia:
Jindal: 49%
Cuomo: 44%
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« Reply #63 on: July 23, 2012, 12:36:32 pm »
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3 Battleground States: Ayotte v. Cuomo

Ohio:
Cuomo: 48%
Ayotte: 46%

Florida:
Ayotte: 46%
Cuomo: 45%

Virginia:
Ayotte: 49%
Cuomo: 44%

3 Battleground States: Jindal v. Cuomo

Ohio:
Cuomo: 49%
Jindal: 44%

Florida:
Cuomo: 46%
Jindal: 46%

Virginia:
Jindal: 49%
Cuomo: 44%
[/quote]

I doubt Cuomo would be ahead in Ohio by 5 against Jindal but be behind by 5 in Virginia. Virginia is more to the left than Ohio. The same with Ayotte. Ahead by 2 in Ohio, but down 5 in Virginia. I think the GOP should be farther ahead in Florida. Out of the current swing states, North Carolina and Florida are the most GOP friendly. And Virginia is the most democratic.
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« Reply #64 on: July 23, 2012, 12:57:14 pm »
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Jindal is a weaker candidate than Ayotte in the fall campaign. If this were the real life 2016 nomination race, I would endorse Ayotte.
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« Reply #65 on: July 24, 2012, 11:09:36 am »
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West Virginia:
Jindal: 57.9%
Ayotte: 42.0%

Kentucky:
Jindal: 59.9%
Ayotte: 39.1%

Tennessee:
Jindal: 57.6%
Ayotte: 42.3%

Jindal Scores Important Victories

Crunch Time for Ayotte

"Ayotte lost the momentum with those three loses, now she did have some wins in Wyoming and Idaho over the weekend, but the focus is on North Carolina and Wisconsin next week." -- John King

"Ayotte needs to win both, not one, otherwise Jindal could sweep the rest of the states and force a brokered convention." -- Alex Castellanos.

"Senator Ayotte is an honorable person, but she is unreliable. An unreliable conservative. She's likely to broker a deal with Democrats and we can't take that chance."

North Carolina:
"I don't know if Governor Jindal is looking to play politics, or if he really believes the lies he spreads. He calls me unreliable. Listen to what comes out of his mouth. Stop the attacks Governor and let's focus on the issues, because all you're doing is giving Andrew Cuomo the keys to the White House."

North Carolina:
Ayotte: 50.0%
Jindal: 49.5%

Wisconsin:
Ayotte: 53.3%
Jindal: 46.2%

Ayotte's Comeback

CNN BREAKING NEWS: JINDAL TALKS OF SUSPENDING CAMPAIGN; MEETS WITH AYOTTE

"Governor Jindal is going to suspend his campaign, but we are learning that he is meeting with Senator Ayotte."

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« Reply #66 on: July 24, 2012, 12:37:35 pm »
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Ayotte/Jindal?

Seems unlikely after Jindal's comments.

The funny thing is that Senator Ayotte is by no means even a half-way "moderate" Senator.

She is one of the, umm, "nicer" ones though Wink
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« Reply #67 on: July 24, 2012, 03:38:29 pm »
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The funny thing is that Senator Ayotte is by no means even a half-way "moderate" Senator.

She is one of the, umm, "nicer" ones though Wink

Agreed.
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« Reply #68 on: July 24, 2012, 04:25:44 pm »
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More please Wink
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Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

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« Reply #69 on: July 25, 2012, 06:25:26 am »
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AYOTTE ENDS CAMPAIGN; VEEP TALK BEGINS

"Ayotte won't pick Jindal, but she will pick someone who will serve as a nice compliment to her." -- Alex Castellanos

"Andrew Cuomo has indicated that his shortlist includes three people: O'Malley, Schweitzer and Patrick." -- Donna Brazil

AYOTTE: PROSPECTIVE VP LIST
John Thune
Rand Paul
Tim Pawlenty
Nikki Haley
Jon Huntsman
Scott Brown
Paul Ryan
Mike Pence
Jeb Bush


"I am proud to have join me on the ticket, the next Vice President of the United States, Martin O' Malley."
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« Reply #70 on: July 25, 2012, 03:05:16 pm »
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Interesting.  Ayotte/Paul 2016!
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Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

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« Reply #71 on: July 26, 2012, 07:11:31 am »
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Matchup:
Cuomo/O' Malley: 46%
Ayotte/ VP: 45%

"This is going to be a close race, I think even closer than 2012. You have to very strong, very competitive candidates." -- John Avalon.

"People seem to be more excited about this election than 2012 and I think it's because of the ability of these candidates to inspire or rally people to their cause. The Obama-Romney Race was not like that. It was a race of I'm slightly better than him so vote for me." -- James Carville

"We have a projected battleground state map at this time and it does illustrate the closeness of this race between Senator Ayotte and Governor Cuomo." -- John King

Ayotte: 228
Cuomo: 197

"There are a fair number of states in play. Ayotte has a slight lead in the electoral vote." -- John King

Obama: 272
Romney: 266

"The results from four years ago produced a narrow Obama victory, and for Cuomo to duplicate that he needs to carry all those states, but with New Hampshire out of the running, and even if he carries all of the Obama states, minus New Hampshire, he only reaches 268 electoral votes." 00 John King.

"The map seems to be favored in Ayotte's favor this cycle. Now despite what conservatives barked, after Romney lost in 2012, he did help reclaim the GOP stake in the states of Ohio, Virginia and Florida." -- John Avalon.

"Cuomo's victory lies in the west. He needs to carry what Obama carried: Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, and then pick up Arizona and he gets 279, without New Hampshire, but that is assuming he is able to carry all the Obama states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa." -- Donna Brazile.

"This is a fifty-fifty election. I think Ayotte has a slight edge because we've had a Democrat for eight years, and the American people usually tire of one party rule after eight years." -- Alex Castellanos.

"Also, with Barack Obama, we've now had three back-to-back two term Presidents, something that hasn't happened since Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe." -- James Carville.

"Onto the Vice Presidential Selection, some sources have indicated that it is narrowed down to three people, one is Marco Rubio." -- John King.

"Rubio would be a stellar pick for Ayotte. He's done a great job in the senate, he's an eloquent speaker, he's young and he helps with a major voting block that has eluded the GOP since Bush in '04." -- Alex Castellanos.

"More than likely she'll pick a governor, someone with executive experience to compliment her senatorial experience." -- John Avalon.

"Any game changers?" -- John King.

"Nikki Haley would be one, maybe Jeb Bush, but I don't see this having a great impact outside of assuring her base of support." -- James Carville.

"Governor Cuomo represents what we've seen for eight years. More spending, more taxes, more government. He truly embodies more of the same. He masks himself as a fiscal conservative, but the truth is he's Barack Obama's best friend."

"Is it smart to tie Cuomo to Barack Obama?" -- John King.

"We'll see. Barack Obama's approval rating stands in the mid forties. The economy is sluggish with 7.0% unemployment. It's a gamble and like what Obama did with Bush in 2008 it may work." -- Alex Castellanos.

"The Republicans are the first to call the shots of negativity, but I'm going to stick to the high road and focus on the issues of growing our economy for the middle class, bringing down healthcare costs, reforming eduction and bringing us into the 21st century. There's much to do, and I hope Senator Ayotte will join me and crafting a campaign for the American people, so there will be a choice in November.
Now The Republicans are trying to make me out as Barack Obama, a boogeyman, a Democrat version of George Bush. Let's get real, Barack Obama is not like George Bush, and while I respect and admire our President, I am not our President. I am my own person and will lead on my accords."

POLITICO HEADLINE: VP PICK LOOMS FOR AYOTTE
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« Reply #72 on: July 26, 2012, 03:11:44 pm »
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I'm really like this timeline. Great job!

I seriously don't wanna be like Winfield and be hackish, but Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine are toss-ups and Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri leaning Republican? That's kinda weird.
I don't think Maine would feel that much of a "favorite-son" effect for Ayotte if Cuomo is also running. I think a more accurate Cuomo vs Ayotte map would look like this:
« Last Edit: July 26, 2012, 05:40:20 pm by Clinton1996 "You Know You Miss Your Daddy" »Logged

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« Reply #73 on: July 26, 2012, 04:52:36 pm »
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I'm really like this timeline. Great job!

I seriously don't wanna be like Winfield and be hackish, but Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine are toss-ups and Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri leaning Republican.
I don't think Maine would feel that much of a "favorite-son" effect for Ayotte if Cuomo is also running. I think a more accurate Cuomo vs Ayotte map would look like this:


No offense taken. Glad you're enjoying it, and I like your map.
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‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

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« Reply #74 on: July 26, 2012, 07:41:32 pm »
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Speaking of Maine, is Angus King now senator there?  Who has he endorsed in 16?  How does it look for Congressional elections this year?  Ayotte/Paul or Ayotte/Rice 16!  (I'm changing my preference to rice.  Paul can get more done in the senate anyway)
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

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