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Author Topic: Cities that were less Democratic (% Obama) than their county  (Read 912 times)
nclib
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« on: September 20, 2012, 11:22:42 pm »
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Thanks to Lephead's data, I was comparing city results with county results.

Even (large and mid-sized) cities that are pretty Republican are still less GOP than their suburbs/the rest of their county.

Cape Coral   FL   Lee
Concord   CA   Contra Costa
San Jose   CA   Santa Clara
Visalia   CA   Tulare
Fort Lauderdale   FL   Broward
Metairie CDP   LA   Jefferson
Yonkers   NY   Westchester
Corpus Christi   TX   Nueces
Laredo   TX   Webb
McAllen   TX    Hidalgo

Does anyone have any info on these cities?      
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2012, 04:57:29 am »
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Thanks to Lephead's data, I was comparing city results with county results.

Even (large and mid-sized) cities that are pretty Republican are still less GOP than their suburbs/the rest of their county.

Cape Coral   FL   Lee
Concord   CA   Contra Costa
San Jose   CA   Santa Clara
Visalia   CA   Tulare
Fort Lauderdale   FL   Broward
Metairie CDP   LA   Jefferson
Yonkers   NY   Westchester
Corpus Christi   TX   Nueces
Laredo   TX   Webb
McAllen   TX    Hidalgo

Does anyone have any info on these cities?      

Readily accessible via the DRA (except California which is a bitch to load, but for that we have the Supplement.)
Even before looking anything up, though, about half of Yonkers is 90% D Ghettoland while the other half is suburban Swingvoterland; and Metairie is obviously more Republican than Jefferson Parish as a whole because the (sizable) Black suburban areas of the parish are outside of it.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2012, 05:54:11 am »
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And after looking up everything but the TX and FL cities, I just realize that all of these are such places and you're not interested in the figures but the reasons. Oopsie...

Well Metairie is obvious - this is not a city. This is Southern White suburbia, not a city. You might as well ask why Paradise Valley is more Republican than Maricopa County. Also, Blacks. Elsewhere.
And all the rest is more or less similar. Visalia is a real city, but it's 14 points less Hispanic than the county as a whole. San Jose includes all the hilly suburban areas to the south, while the areas to the northwest and northeast outside the city are part of an undistinguishable blob of houses around the South Bay. Concord is in the geographical center of CC, presumably well east (ie away from the center of the agglomeration) of the county's center of population. Cape Coral may be the largest municipality in Lee County, but the old urban core, the county seat, the Black area are all in Fort Myers. Broward County's Black Suburban areas that elect Alcee Hastings are also not in Fort Lauderdale city limits.

Yonkers is barely less Democratic than Westchester County as a whole (as are several others on the list), which includes several other older urban cores and the very Black enclave of Mount Vernon. Relative Republican strength in White inner suburban areas (especially within the city limits) is also a bit of a feature of the New York Metro, and Yonkers' suburban eastside is hemmed in by Mt Vernon, the urban core of Yonkers itself to the west, and the North Bronx.
That leaves South Texas. Laredo is 94% of the population of Webb County - it includes its suburbs, the remainder is mostly genuinely rural. And it's a feature of Texas Hispanic Republicanism that its strongly income-correlated. It's only the Hispanic Middle Class that frequently votes Republican - wholly Hispanic rural precincts down there are very heavily Democratic. McAllen also has a sizable White minority; about twice the share of Hidalgo County as a whole (and it has other urban centers besides.)
Nueces County too has some of those rural Hispanic D precincts... and it's Whites are Southern Republicans... and it's an oil town... and perhaps its Hispanics have lower citizenship rates than the surrounding county? Still one of only two places on here (the other being Yonkers) to be even vaguely surprising.

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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
nclib
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2012, 09:02:33 pm »
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And after looking up everything but the TX and FL cities, I just realize that all of these are such places and you're not interested in the figures but the reasons. Oopsie...

Yes, I listed cities that fit the topic line, though using Lephead's tables (though DRA may be may accurate), I don't find the figures for the following cities:

Albuquerque   NM   Bernalillo
Abilene   TX   Taylor, Jones
Aurora   CO   Arapahoe, Adams
Charleston   SC   Charleston, Berkeley
Denton   TX   Denton
Lakewood   CO   Jefferson
Plano   TX   Collin, Denton
Round Rock TX   Williamson
Thornton   CO   Adams
Westminster   CO   Adams, Jefferson
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2012, 11:27:43 pm »
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For Santa Clara County you basically have Palo Alto and the cities around there being very liberal. Those areas are basically an extension of San Mateo County. They voted to legalize gay marriage by a large margin and also voted to legalize Marijuana. San Jose on the other hand is much more moderate (doesn't have much to do with income). Also the Vietnamese live in San Jose, though I wouldn't overemphasize that.

For Contra Costa County, you have the inner east bay along interstate 80 which is the inner city/working class areas. Concord is basically outer east bay suburbia, but still pretty Democratic since it's not that high income by Bay Area standards. Walnut Creek is even more Republican and it's a fairly large city, but has a higher income. But then you have Orinda and Lafayette which are even richer and even more Democratic. Those people are just Oakland hills liberals who wanted a better school district.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2012, 11:30:55 pm by Senator Sbane »Logged
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2012, 09:44:12 am »
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And after looking up everything but the TX and FL cities, I just realize that all of these are such places and you're not interested in the figures but the reasons. Oopsie...

Yes, I listed cities that fit the topic line, though using Lephead's tables (though DRA may be may accurate), I don't find the figures for the following cities:

Albuquerque   NM   Bernalillo
Precinct design is wacky, and so is the DRA for the state (a comma error of some sort) but as far as I can make out there's virtually no difference in election outcome between the sixth of Bernalillo outside the city limits and the remainder. Though the parts outside are three points or so less Anglo.

Quote
Charleston   SC   Charleston, Berkeley
This sort of thing probably explains why Lephead has no figures. However, unless the unannexed people in West Ashley and John's Island and James' Island are much more Democratic than the annexed people, Charleston city is more Democratic than Charleston County - 54.5% Obama for all of the Peninsula, West Ashley / St Andrews, the two islands, and the partially annexed areas in Berkeley County. The Peninsula itself - the historic city of Charleston as it was until I think the 1990s - is 74% Obama but also just not very large. North Charleston, ie the mainland bits north of the peninsula and still outside the city, is 70% Obama, but the Whites in Mount Pleasant and the far suburban bits to the west more than even it out.

Quote
Lakewood   CO   Jefferson
Aurora   CO   Arapahoe, Adams
Thornton   CO   Adams
Westminster   CO   Adams, Jefferson
While there are cases of precinct design not aligning with city boundaries in Colorado as well, the issues are minor and the following figures are as accurate as can be produced:
Lakewood 57.9% Obama
Aurora 62.5% Obama
Westminster 57.2% Obama
Thornton 57.8% Obama. Which makes Thornton marginally less democratic than Adams County as a whole. Of course, all these are suburbs really, not cities.

Quote
Abilene   TX   Taylor, Jones
Denton   TX   Denton
Plano   TX   Collin, Denton
Round Rock TX   Williamson
Worse issues than in Colorado, not as bad as in Charleston - differing very much from city to city with Round Rock being bizarre and Plano being as near to a perfect match as makes no difference.
Abilene is app. 70.8% McCain - ten points less than the remainder of the county.
Round Rock is very approximately 51.8% McCain. It's a suburb, of course - Georgetown is the older urban center in Williamson County - but it is a suburb of Austin.
Plano is 59.8% McCain. It's a large splosh of random suburbia, not a city, but it's on the southern side of Collin County. (The bit in Denton is one precinct.)
Denton is the older urban core in Denton County, and is also a not so tiny college town, but has city limits that extend beyond the urban core into exurban sprawl. It also has a rather bad match between precinct lines and city lines, but I'd approximate it at having given John McCain 51.2% of the vote. You can pretty much split it into an l-shaped southern and eastern, plus a bit on the other sides, half that voted 60% McCain and a center-with-bits-to-the-north-and-west half that voted 60% Obama.
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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Ernest
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2012, 10:38:22 pm »

Yeah, South Carolina has what has to be the most idiotic laws concerning municipal annexation that are on the books.  They tend to cause our larger cities have borders that make even the most egregious of majority-minority gerrymandered districts look sane and reasonable.
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