Falling Economic Indicators Signaling 2023 Recession

[oldtimer]

I’m not being facetious here but… didn’t we technically enter a recession in Q2 of 2022 or did I imagine that whole thing?

Under some definitions there was indeed a very mild recession in early 2022, but it was not formally designated that way by American policymakers.

I find it quite incredible that interest rates have been cut 1.2% already in just 2 months, in the middle of the strong economic recovery from the 2022 recession.

The FED has no idea what is going on and has lost control of interest rates, and will be caught with it's pants down again.

[oldtimer]

Basically what happened was that the combination of stimulus and Zero rates created a huge inflation wave in 2021 that caught the FED off guard.

Then a mild recession in 2022 cooled inflation back down,  the FED started raising rates in a panic during that recession, but the recession and rate rises where cancelled by the huge spending bills Congress passed in 2022.

So now the FED is stuck.
It can't cut interest rates in the middle of a large expansion without risking another inflation wave. It failed to raise market rates, because the market no longer responds due to the ever larger government deficit funding the economy.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Basically what happened was that the combination of stimulus and Zero rates created a huge inflation wave in 2021 that caught the FED off guard.

I have a huge problem with that statement. I'm not saying anything you're saying is wrong. It's more the Fed being caught off guard. "The Federal Reserve saying inflation caught them by surprise is like an army saying an invasion caught them by surprise." If what you're saying is true, you failed at your job.

So now the FED is stuck.
It can't cut interest rates in the middle of a large expansion without risking another inflation wave. It failed to raise market rates, because the market no longer responds due to the ever larger government deficit funding the economy.

The Fed is stuck because we have a two-speeds economy. All economic growth of this year is being driven by a very small minority of stocks. These small minority of stocks all tend to be in tech and was driven by the AI craze. The rest of the economy is flat to going down. In the S&P 500 prior to a few weeks ago when the markets took Jerome Powell's statement as incredibly dovish and a sign of instant rate cuts, it was 7 vs. 493. So if you're tech or your life is connected to tech, you're doing awesome. If you're not in tech or your life is not connected to tech, chances are you're middling to sucking.

One obvious problem with having economic performance driven by one very narrow sector is if that sector goes down...

[jojoju1998]

Basically what happened was that the combination of stimulus and Zero rates created a huge inflation wave in 2021 that caught the FED off guard.

I have a huge problem with that statement. I'm not saying anything you're saying is wrong. It's more the Fed being caught off guard. "The Federal Reserve saying inflation caught them by surprise is like an army saying an invasion caught them by surprise." If what you're saying is true, you failed at your job.

So now the FED is stuck.
It can't cut interest rates in the middle of a large expansion without risking another inflation wave. It failed to raise market rates, because the market no longer responds due to the ever larger government deficit funding the economy.

The Fed is stuck because we have a two-speeds economy. All economic growth of this year is being driven by a very small minority of stocks. These small minority of stocks all tend to be in tech and was driven by the AI craze. The rest of the economy is flat to going down. In the S&P 500 prior to a few weeks ago when the markets took Jerome Powell's statement as incredibly dovish and a sign of instant rate cuts, it was 7 vs. 493. So if you're tech or your life is connected to tech, you're doing awesome. If you're not in tech or your life is not connected to tech, chances are you're middling to sucking.

That's........... interesting to say since most of the analysis has been that the blue collar economy has been booming. While the white collar world has been struggling.

[oldtimer]

Basically what happened was that the combination of stimulus and Zero rates created a huge inflation wave in 2021 that caught the FED off guard.

I have a huge problem with that statement. I'm not saying anything you're saying is wrong. It's more the Fed being caught off guard. "The Federal Reserve saying inflation caught them by surprise is like an army saying an invasion caught them by surprise." If what you're saying is true, you failed at your job.

So now the FED is stuck.
It can't cut interest rates in the middle of a large expansion without risking another inflation wave. It failed to raise market rates, because the market no longer responds due to the ever larger government deficit funding the economy.

The Fed is stuck because we have a two-speeds economy. All economic growth of this year is being driven by a very small minority of stocks. These small minority of stocks all tend to be in tech and was driven by the AI craze. The rest of the economy is flat to going down. In the S&P 500 prior to a few weeks ago when the markets took Jerome Powell's statement as incredibly dovish and a sign of instant rate cuts, it was 7 vs. 493. So if you're tech or your life is connected to tech, you're doing awesome. If you're not in tech or your life is not connected to tech, chances are you're middling to sucking.

One obvious problem with having economic performance driven by one very narrow sector is if that sector goes down...

"So if you're tech or your life is connected to tech, you're doing awesome. If you're not in tech or your life is not connected to tech, chances are you're middling to sucking."

A summary of the 21st century.

[oldtimer]

Basically what happened was that the combination of stimulus and Zero rates created a huge inflation wave in 2021 that caught the FED off guard.

I have a huge problem with that statement. I'm not saying anything you're saying is wrong. It's more the Fed being caught off guard. "The Federal Reserve saying inflation caught them by surprise is like an army saying an invasion caught them by surprise." If what you're saying is true, you failed at your job.

So now the FED is stuck.
It can't cut interest rates in the middle of a large expansion without risking another inflation wave. It failed to raise market rates, because the market no longer responds due to the ever larger government deficit funding the economy.

The Fed is stuck because we have a two-speeds economy. All economic growth of this year is being driven by a very small minority of stocks. These small minority of stocks all tend to be in tech and was driven by the AI craze. The rest of the economy is flat to going down. In the S&P 500 prior to a few weeks ago when the markets took Jerome Powell's statement as incredibly dovish and a sign of instant rate cuts, it was 7 vs. 493. So if you're tech or your life is connected to tech, you're doing awesome. If you're not in tech or your life is not connected to tech, chances are you're middling to sucking.

One obvious problem with having economic performance driven by one very narrow sector is if that sector goes down...

"The Federal Reserve saying inflation caught them by surprise is like an army saying an invasion caught them by surprise."

1930: Fed keeps rates too high, doesn't realize the shortage of money.
1973: Fed keeps rates too low, doesn't realize the economy has a shortage of raw materials.
1990: Fed keeps rates too high, doesn't realize the economy has a surplus of raw materials.
1998: Fed keeps rates too low, doesn't realize the existance of the Tech Bubble.
2005: Fed keeps rates too low, doesn't realize the existance of the Housing Bubble.
2010: Fed buys stocks, doesn't realize the Stock Market can't drive the economy.
2021: Fed keeps rates too low, doesn't realise the surplus of money.

My guess is that since the government has such high control of the economy, policy mistakes by the FED show up when they are amplified by government policy.

Right now western government policy is to restrict the production of goods while favouring services, and splurging to cover short term pain while ignoring long term costs of their policy.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Basically what happened was that the combination of stimulus and Zero rates created a huge inflation wave in 2021 that caught the FED off guard.

I have a huge problem with that statement. I'm not saying anything you're saying is wrong. It's more the Fed being caught off guard. "The Federal Reserve saying inflation caught them by surprise is like an army saying an invasion caught them by surprise." If what you're saying is true, you failed at your job.

So now the FED is stuck.
It can't cut interest rates in the middle of a large expansion without risking another inflation wave. It failed to raise market rates, because the market no longer responds due to the ever larger government deficit funding the economy.

The Fed is stuck because we have a two-speeds economy. All economic growth of this year is being driven by a very small minority of stocks. These small minority of stocks all tend to be in tech and was driven by the AI craze. The rest of the economy is flat to going down. In the S&P 500 prior to a few weeks ago when the markets took Jerome Powell's statement as incredibly dovish and a sign of instant rate cuts, it was 7 vs. 493. So if you're tech or your life is connected to tech, you're doing awesome. If you're not in tech or your life is not connected to tech, chances are you're middling to sucking.

That's........... interesting to say since most of the analysis has been that the blue collar economy has been booming. While the white collar world has been struggling.

I'm just talking stock market, which is everyone's retirement even if you're in a union pension fund.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Looks like the indicators were correct, they were just 1 year early.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looks like the indicators were correct, they were just 1 year early.

Lol you must not be employed I have an income and the Economy is fine we just gotta get rid of the silly 2 T dollar Trump tax cuts as I told you before, on people making over 200 K they don't need it