E: -3.10, S: -3.83
Update seasons are much quicker. Simpsons had already been on the air for about 30 seasons when Update began. 5 years later, and Update has about half as many seasons. The biggest threat to Update's winning is Bushie's health. He can't have a fatal event in the next 5 years are so. He's fairly young, doesn't drink or smoke. People much fatter than him and with worse habits routinely live into their 40s and even beyond. I'm going with Update.