Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 03, 2014, 02:17:59 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Will Democrats gain 25 seats gross in the House?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Poll
Question: Will Democrats gain 25 seats gross in the house?
Yes   -5 (8.9%)
No   -51 (91.1%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 56

Author Topic: Will Democrats gain 25 seats gross in the House?  (Read 1754 times)
MD
Newbie
*
Posts: 16
View Profile
« Reply #25 on: July 30, 2012, 03:45:39 pm »
Ignore

Maybe they net 12-15. Tops.

This is my prediction. Smiley

6 months ago, I honestly thought along these lines.  Now, I am backing it off to 8 to 10, at most and it could be a little less.   The new maps pretty much resulted in a wash.  Cook has an excellent tally on that.  TX and FL were 2 states the GOP thought they would make huge gains with new maps but due to some issues around mandatory minority created districts, that didn't happen.  IL and NC pretty much cancel each other out.  The R's gain because of less seats in some places (MA, PA) but the new maps themselves don't make much of a difference.   In the past few months the R's have caught some breaks.  CA 31 wasw gift wrapped.  Boren retired.  The seats in PA look safe fror them. 
Logged
MD
Newbie
*
Posts: 16
View Profile
« Reply #26 on: July 30, 2012, 03:47:37 pm »
Ignore

Sorry about the last post.  The screen started to jump when I typed my second paragraph.  Anyway, I do think 8 to 10 is now the max.  It could be less.  If not, I look for the D's to make gains in NY and OH big time. 
Logged
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5922
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.32, S: -5.74


View Profile
« Reply #27 on: July 30, 2012, 08:30:22 pm »
Ignore

Depending on how bad Romney fails, the Dems could even face net loss from being boned in redistricting in several states. I think it'll be like D+3 or 4 myself but I do no see any scenario short of Obama winning in a decent landslide where they pick up a large amount of House seats.
Logged

MD
Newbie
*
Posts: 16
View Profile
« Reply #28 on: July 31, 2012, 10:30:59 am »
Ignore

If Obama had been fortunate and had the opportunity to run against Santorum or Newt, then the House would have been in play.  The POTUS election has all the makings of being a very close contest.  I would give Obama an advantage today based on the swing states but a win is not 100% certain. 
Logged
greenforest32
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2547


Political Matrix
E: -7.94, S: -8.43

View Profile
« Reply #29 on: August 01, 2012, 08:23:46 am »
Ignore

Is Nate Silver going to make 2012 projections for the House races?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/23/do-democrats-have-a-shot-at-the-house/

NYT has ratings now: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house
Logged
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4963


View Profile
« Reply #30 on: August 02, 2012, 03:09:03 pm »
Ignore

Depending on how bad Romney fails, the Dems could even face net loss from being boned in redistricting in several states. I think it'll be like D+3 or 4 myself but I do no see any scenario short of Obama winning in a decent landslide where they pick up a large amount of House seats.

If Democrats have a net loss in both the House and Senate, it will have been the first time in history that a President was reelected while his party lost seats in both Houses. 
Logged
Speaker Dereich
Dereich
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1878


View Profile
« Reply #31 on: August 02, 2012, 03:56:44 pm »
Ignore

Depending on how bad Romney fails, the Dems could even face net loss from being boned in redistricting in several states. I think it'll be like D+3 or 4 myself but I do no see any scenario short of Obama winning in a decent landslide where they pick up a large amount of House seats.

If Democrats have a net loss in both the House and Senate, it will have been the first time in history that a President was reelected while his party lost seats in both Houses. 


Not so. Republicans gained seats in both houses in 1916 while Woodrow Wilson won reelection.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19222
United States


View Profile
« Reply #32 on: August 02, 2012, 07:08:21 pm »
Ignore

How do you even count the gross gains in a year where you have redistricting?  If, for example, you have a state that's gaining more districts, then does a newly created district that's won by a Democrat count as a seat that they've gained?  Even in states where the number of seats stays the same, there won't be perfect continuity between the old districts and the new districts.  So what counts as a gain?
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4963


View Profile
« Reply #33 on: August 02, 2012, 07:28:26 pm »
Ignore

Depending on how bad Romney fails, the Dems could even face net loss from being boned in redistricting in several states. I think it'll be like D+3 or 4 myself but I do no see any scenario short of Obama winning in a decent landslide where they pick up a large amount of House seats.

If Democrats have a net loss in both the House and Senate, it will have been the first time in history that a President was reelected while his party lost seats in both Houses. 


Not so. Republicans gained seats in both houses in 1916 while Woodrow Wilson won reelection.

96 years is still an awful long time. 
Logged
zorkpolitics
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1036
United States


View Profile
« Reply #34 on: August 02, 2012, 07:52:42 pm »
Ignore

Depending on how bad Romney fails, the Dems could even face net loss from being boned in redistricting in several states. I think it'll be like D+3 or 4 myself but I do no see any scenario short of Obama winning in a decent landslide where they pick up a large amount of House seats.

If Democrats have a net loss in both the House and Senate, it will have been the first time in history that a President was reelected while his party lost seats in both Houses.  


Of course if Romney wins and the GOP gains seats in the Senate but loses seats in the House then it will just be another typical election.
Logged

"Scientists are treacherous allies on committees, for they are apt to change their minds in response to arguments" C.M. Bowra
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4963


View Profile
« Reply #35 on: August 02, 2012, 10:21:28 pm »
Ignore

Depending on how bad Romney fails, the Dems could even face net loss from being boned in redistricting in several states. I think it'll be like D+3 or 4 myself but I do no see any scenario short of Obama winning in a decent landslide where they pick up a large amount of House seats.

If Democrats have a net loss in both the House and Senate, it will have been the first time in history that a President was reelected while his party lost seats in both Houses.  


Of course if Romney wins and the GOP gains seats in the Senate but loses seats in the House then it will just be another typical election.

That's what happened in 1992. 
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines