Libya 2012

[Speaker Dereich]

Thought we should have one of these. The Libyans are having a "Public National Conference" election tomorrow, which seems to be similar to the Egyptian constitutional assembly election a few months ago.  Also, some of the Benghazites who want a more federal system are calling for boycotts.
 
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/07/06/libya-election.html

It also sounds like the government thats most likely is made up of the MB aligned Freedom and Construction party and that of secularist former PM Jibril:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/9379022/Libya-elections-Muslim-Brotherhood-set-to-lead-government.html

[Tender Branson]

It should be noted that the provisional parliament will consist of 200 members, out of which 80 are for party list members and 120 are for independent candidates. Party list members need to be 50% female, while there is no requirement for Independents. Which means that of about 3000 Independent candidates, only about 80 are female.

So, it looks like about 40-45 out of 200 MP's will be women.

[Mr. Morden]

link

The leader of one of Libya's main Islamist parties said on Sunday that a rival liberal coalition had a solid advantage after the country's first election since the ouster of Moamer Kadhafi.

"The National Forces Alliance achieved good results in some large cities except Misrata. They have a net lead in Tripoli and in Benghazi," said Mohammed Sawan, who heads the Justice and Construction party.

The bulk of Libya's population and registered voters are concentrated in the capital, which lies in the west of the oil-rich desert country, and in the eastern city of Benghazi.

"But it is a tight race for us in the south," Sawan added.
.
.
.
Votes are still being tallied by Libya's electoral commission with preliminary results expected within 48 hours.

[Senator MaxQue]

Good than in a fragile democracy, the losers recognise than they lose.

[Californian Tony]

Good than in a fragile democracy, the losers recognise than they lose.

Yes, it's rare enough to be praised.

[Hashemite]

Even if Jibril is a former Gaddafi stalwart, I guess his guys are probably the least horrible guys and they're not Islamists.

[RogueBeaver]

What Hash said.

[So the Heroes Fall]

So the liberals won? There's hope for legalizing alcohol.

[Californian Tony]

Interesting how Tunisia and Egypt, which are generally presented as the most "modern" countries, saw Islamist landslides whereas in the allegedly archaic Libya the liberals seem to be winning.

[hawkeye59]

Interesting how Tunisia and Egypt, which are generally presented as the most "modern" countries, saw Islamist landslides whereas in the allegedly archaic Libya the liberals seem to be winning.

Probably because Gaddafi had much more of a connection to Islamism than Ben Ali or Mubarak. But still, good news.

[The Mikado]

Interesting how Tunisia and Egypt, which are generally presented as the most "modern" countries, saw Islamist landslides whereas in the allegedly archaic Libya the liberals seem to be winning.

More that the Libyan liberals saw what happened in the others and ran as a united front to prevent vote splitting.  (Remember that Ennadha in Tunisia won eith only ~38% due to secularist vote splitting).

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, another huge difference from Egypt and Tunisia is that in Libya there was an actual armed revolt against the regime, and the leadership of that armed revolt (to the extent that it had leadership) was the same liberal bloc that is winning this election.

More:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/09/world/africa/libya-election-latest-results.html?google_editors_picks=true

The party that appeared to be running second, the bloc established by the Muslim Brotherhood, appeared to received only about 20 percent of the vote or less in both the Tripoli and Benghazi regions, the parties and election monitors said, indicating a trend that is likely to carry over into the competition between individual candidates. Another loosely Islamic party, one founded by Abdel Hakim Belhaj, a former leader of an armed insurgency here who became the head of Tripoli’s military council, also fell short in the voting. Though it had been expected to be a major competitor, it appeared to attract even less support than the Brotherhood’s bloc.

More official preliminary results are expected on Monday night, with final results expected perhaps as soon as the end of the week.

Libyans turned out to vote in great numbers on Saturday, defying expectations and, in some places, bullets to do so.
.
.
.
The interim government announced with pride that 94 percent of the polling places had opened despite the violence, and turnout was over 60 percent. And as vote-counting began Saturday night, joyful voters in cars jammed the streets of the major coastal cities of Tripoli, Benghazi and Misurata, honking madly, and waving ink-stained fingers in victory signs.

[Zuza]

Interesting how Tunisia and Egypt, which are generally presented as the most "modern" countries, saw Islamist landslides whereas in the allegedly archaic Libya the liberals seem to be winning.

More that the Libyan liberals saw what happened in the others and ran as a united front to prevent vote splitting.  (Remember that Ennadha in Tunisia won eith only ~38% due to secularist vote splitting).

In elections participated at least 2 liberal parties (National Forces Alliance and National Front Party).

[Vasall des Midas]

Of course, another huge difference from Egypt and Tunisia is that in Libya there was an actual armed revolt against the regime, and the leadership of that armed revolt (to the extent that it had leadership) was the same liberal bloc that is winning this election.

In short, the victors are not "liberal" in any meaningful way and are not as "modern" as Islamists.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

So the liberals won? There's hope for legalizing alcohol.

All that matters for you...

Seriously, shut up sometimes.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Interesting how Tunisia and Egypt, which are generally presented as the most "modern" countries, saw Islamist landslides whereas in the allegedly archaic Libya the liberals seem to be winning.

As of Tunisia, first of all, the Ennahda Movement is very moderate when compared to parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood.

Second of all, it was hardly some great "Islamic landslide", considering that Ennahda is significantly below a parliamentary majority and had to form a coalition government with the social democratic parties such as Ettakatol or Congress for the Republic, which also took the Presidency.

Finally, Gaddafi was hardly a "liberal".

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/09/us-libya-elections-idUSBRE86412N20120709

Jibril's National Forces Alliance (NFA) was heading for landslide victories in the Tripoli suburb of Janzour and the western region towns of Zlitan, Misalata, Tarhouna and Khoms with over three-quarters of votes counted in those areas.

In Misrata, Libya's third city, the Union for the Homeland led by a long-time Gaddafi opponent, was on course to win.

Neither the Justice and Construction party - political wing of the Libyan counterpart of the Muslim Brotherhood that now dominates the Egyptian parliament - nor the Al-Watan Islamist group led by an ex-rebel militia chief did well in the tallies.

A strong showing by US-educated Jibril, a fluent English-speaker already familiar in Western capitals for conducting most of the rebels' diplomacy last year, is likely to sit well with NATO allies who backed the uprising to oust Gaddafi.

But analysts cautioned that parties only have 80 out of 200 seats in a new assembly which will appoint a caretaker prime minister and cabinet before preparing for parliamentary polls next year, with independent candidates taking the other 120.

"We have no way of knowing yet how they (the independents) will align themselves," said Hanan Salah of campaign group Human Rights Watch.

There is speculation that Jibril, who will not sit in the new assembly himself, may seek a greater role for himself - possibly even as president if such a position is created in a new Libyan constitution to be drafted next year.
.
.
.
Nearly 1.8 million of 2.8 million registered voters cast their ballots, a turnout of around 65 percent, authorities said.

Earlier, international observers declared Saturday's election credible, saying violent incidents and anti-vote protests in the restive east failed to stop Libyans turning out.

[Californian Tony]

BTW, can a constituency map be found somewhere ?

[RBH]

try this: http://www.hnec.ly/modules/googlemaps/

[Mr. Morden]

Wikipedia has some results now:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_General_National_Congress_election,_2012

With some additional context given here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/17/us-libya-election-idUSBRE86G1EN20120717

Jibril's faction ended up winning 39 of the 80 party seats, well ahead of 2nd place (Muslim Brotherhood-backed) Justice and Construction Party, with 17 seats.  But since the majority of the new parliament will be independents, no one really knows for sure who's going to form a government.

[RBH]

List of winners: http://www.libyaherald.com/elected-members-of-the-national-congress-by-constituency/ (caution, the site is slow)

Most popular winners:
Ibrahim Ali Mohamed Abu Shaala, Mizdah, 9,279 votes (68.23%)
Maree Mohamed Mansour Raheel, Tawergha, 3,572 votes (67.99%)
Abdulaziz Ettaher Ehreba Zabasi Al-Kekli, Kekla/El-Galaa, 5,483 votes (66.91%)
Nouri Ali Mohamed Abu Sahmain, Zuara, 8,079 votes (58.07%)
Abu Bakr Murtada Mukhtar Emdawer, Ghadames, 3976 votes (57.82%)

Least popular winners (one-winner seat):
Hamed Abdussalam Abdullah Al-Baghdadi, Wadi Eshatti (Al Gurda), 811 votes (16.43%)
Mohamed Besheer Misbah Bin Meskeen, Wadi Eshatti (Brak), 676 votes (16.23%)
Abdulmajid Al Mahdi Miloud Azantuni, Aziziya, 1,997 votes (15.77%)
Zidan Misbah Abdullah Mohamed Marzoug, Wadi Eshatti (Idri), 903 votes (14.46%)
Besheer Mahmoud Mohamed Al-Hosh, Ajilat, 2,131 votes (14.02%)
Abdul Aali Anwar Mahmoud Al-Murtada, Qasr Libya, 1,144 votes (13.98%)
Othman Mabrouk Miftah Al-Ghedwi, Emsehel, Essayeh, Esbea, 1,743 votes (11.26%)

The wonder of this electoral system also means that the Benghazi seat, which had 258 candidates facing off for 9 seats led to 6 winners who didn't top 1% of the total vote.

So maybe in an election or two, they'll stop going Papua New Guinea style with having giant non-partisan elections for some seats

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.euronews.com/2012/08/10/moderate-islamist-mohammed-magarief-voted-leader-of-libya-national-assembly/

Mohammed Magarief, a main figure in the opposition against former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, is the new president of the the country’s national assembly.

Magarief, who is now effectively head of state, comes from the eastern city of Benghazi, where the uprising against Gaddafi first began.

Choosing a prime minister and organising full parliamentary elections are two of the tasks ahead for Magarief and the new ruling body.