Romanian presidential impeachment referendum 2012

[Marcus Aurelius]

A referendum on whether or not the President of Romania, Traian Basescu, narrowly reelected in 2009 by only 70 000 votes (a margin of 0,6 %), should be impeached will be held in Romania on July 29th, 2012.

Basescu already faced such a referendum in 2007, when he was confirmed in his role. Nevertheless, the present government seems to have a serious grudge against him, since they altered the electoral law to validate the referendum with only a majority of expressed voters, whereas a majority of eligible voters was required before.

Basescu belongs to the PD-L, Democratic Liberal Party, member of the EPP. His run-off challenger in 2009 was Geoana, a member of the PSD, the Social Democratic Party affiliated with the Socialist International.

I've heard on the news here in France (well, on Arte... not on any conventional television...) that the governing PSD held Basescu responsible for austerity measures that destroy the country's economy, something like that, but I'll confess I still did not look into it more thoroughly, so any clarification is welcome.

It is also to be noted that the PSD is governing in a Social Liberal Union with the National Liberal Party (PNL), member of ELDR/ALDE, and the... Conservative Party.

It seems a poll showed 64 % of popular support for the impeachment measure.

[Marcus Aurelius]

Apparently, the government restored the 50%+1 turnout threshold for the referendum's validity, due to EU pressure. This could be well be decisive since turnout in Romania has not been known to be up the charts (54% in last presidential, but 39% in last legislative...)

No one even a bit interested ? ;-)

[Simfan34]

Impeachment referendum? So the country's one big jury here? This hardly seems fair.

[asexual trans victimologist]

Impeachment referendum? So the country's one big jury here? This hardly seems fair.

It seems like it's more or less the same as a recall election except it's triggered by the Parliament.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

It seems a poll showed 64 % of popular support for the impeachment measure.

I'm interested about turnout. During 2007 referendum only 44.45% voted.

[Gustaf]

My Romanian friends tell me that this is basically part of an insane power-grab from the government which is apparently fcked up even by Romanian standards.

[Vosem]

On AH.com they're saying Romania's pulling 'another Hungary' (ie, parliamentary dictatorship), only this time from the left, not the right...

[Californian Tony]

Yeah, they apparently even got called out by the European Commission (which is something considering their usual "prudence" on this kind of topics).

[Tender Branson]

Turnout looks abysmal: At 4pm, only 28% have voted.

[Californian Tony]

Turnout looks abysmal: At 4pm, only 28% have voted.

Any hint what the results should look like ?

[Tender Branson]

Turnout looks abysmal: At 4pm, only 28% have voted.

Any hint what the results should look like ?

If recent trends are any indication, turnout should be about 40% in the end.

For example, in the 2nd round of the Pres. runoff in 2009, at 4pm already 40% have voted. In the end, 58% voted.

As for the result of the referendum: All polls say that about 60-70% want Basescu to be re-called.

But because turnout is less than 50% anyway, he will remain in office.

[Californian Tony]

Turnout looks abysmal: At 4pm, only 28% have voted.

Any hint what the results should look like ?

If recent trends are any indication, turnout should be about 40% in the end.

For example, in the 2nd round of the Pres. runoff in 2009, at 4pm already 40% have voted. In the end, 58% voted.

As for the result of the referendum: All polls say that about 60-70% want Basescu to be re-called.

But because turnout is less than 50% anyway, he will remain in office.

I see. Good thing there are these kinds of provisions.

[Tender Branson]

It also looks like that almost all Basescu voters from 2009 are staying at home today:

In some areas where Basescu won big in 2009, only 6-20% have voted until 5pm !

On the other hand, 2009 Socialist regions have turnout in the 30s, 40s and 50s.

http://www.becreferendum2012.ro/DOCUMENTE%20BEC/Statistici/Participarea%20la%20vot/comunicat%20prezenta%20ora%2017.pdf

[Tender Branson]

But it's still too early to say what final turnout will be like:

Today, polling hours will be extended until 11pm and because today there's a heat wave in Romania with degrees of 39°C (100°F), people might actually only start going to the polls after 8 or 9pm when it gets "colder" ...

But still hard to see 50+ turnout.

[Angel of Death]

Someone has not been thinking this thing through:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Participation_criterion#Quorum_requirements

[Tender Branson]

Romanian president survives impeachment referendum



(Reuters) - Romanian President Traian Basescu survived a referendum on his impeachment on Sunday after the voter turnout fell short of the required level and derailed an effort by his opponents to oust him from office.

Leftist Prime Minister Victor Ponta's efforts to unseat the conservative Basescu have brought a stern dressing-down from the European Union, which accused him of undermining the rule of law and intimidating judges.

The row over Basescu has delayed policymaking, sent the leu currency plunging to record lows, and pushed up borrowing costs. It also raised concern about the future of Romania's 5 billion euro ($6.2 billion) International Monetary Fund-led aid deal.

The election bureau said the voter turnout was 46 percent, below the 50 percent threshold Ponta's leftist Social Liberal Union (USL) needed to make the referendum valid.

Exit polls showed more than 80 percent of those who went to the ballot box had voted to remove the president.

"The flame of democracy has remained alight. Romanians have rejected the coup d'etat," Basescu said.

Ponta, whose government took office in May, suspended Basescu and held the referendum to seek popular backing for the impeachment for overstepping his powers. The president is unpopular for backing austerity and for perceptions of cronyism.

The electoral bureau's figures have a margin of error of three percentage points and do not include Romanians voting abroad, but it is now almost certain that final figures - probably on Monday - will show turnout was below 50 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/29/us-romania-politics-idUSBRE86S0I420120729

[Californian Tony]

I guess it's better so (though I'm not exactly in love with Basescu...)

[Sibboleth]

Seems fairly clear that both sides are happy to game the system to their own advantage. Going to run and run, isn't it? Though it has done already, of course.

[Insula Dei]

Ponta meanwhile has announced he'll bury the tomahawk for the time being, even if he initially was of the opinion that Basescu had 'lost all legitimacy'.

[Tender Branson]

The ironic thing is:

In the past 10 years, the population in Romania dropped by 3 million from 22.5 million in 2001 to 19.5 million in the 2011 Census.

Which means that the people eligible to vote dropped from 18 million to 15.5 million, but the voter lists will only be updated starting on Jan. 1, 2013 - but in this election the "old" voter lists have been used.

If the voter lists had been updated because of the mass-emigration in the past 10 years to 15.5 million ahead of this referendum, Basescu would now be history, because turnout would be 50%+ ...

[Tender Branson]

"Shocking" political pressure on Romania court - Council of Europe

BUCHAREST (Reuters) - Romania's Constitutional Court is under "shocking" political pressure ahead of its ruling on the validity of a referendum to impeach the president and has appealed to the Council of Europe for protection, a council official said on Tuesday.

Prime Minister Victor Ponta's leftist Social Liberal Union (USL) is trying to oust suspended President Traian Basescu. Ponta accuses Basescu of abusing his position to block government legislation, but the European Union has regarded some of the government's moves as undermining democracy.

The row has stalled policymaking in Romania, delayed vital economic reforms and raised concerns over the Balkan state's International Monetary Fund-led aid deal.

An impeachment referendum held on July 29 yielded an 88 percent majority in favour of removing the right-wing Basescu, but the turnout did not reach the 50 percent threshold required by the Constitutional Court.

The Court was expected to invalidate the plebiscite but has put off its ruling until August 31 and asked to see voter lists to assess the true size of the electorate after USL officials asserted that the actual number of voters was much smaller.

http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFBRE8760LY20120807

[Marcus Aurelius]

That, gentlemen, is NOT how you impeach an elected official and get any feeling of legitimacy among the public...

[Californian Tony]

Yeah, looks like Ponta is an Orban wannabe. Only he isn't in the same position of absolute power as Orban, fortunately.

[Marcus Aurelius]

I started to distrust his party when it got into an alliance with the Conservative Party... this is not what I call a left coalition.

[Hashemite]

The PSD, much like every other major Romanian party, has never really had a real ideology. They're all corrupt shells.