PPP: Obama matching 2008 performance in VA, NC

[cope1989]

How could Obama be matching his 2008 performance in VA and NC?  Doesn't make sense.

Care to explain why it doesn't make sense?

If you assume Obama is up 3-4 points nationally, which is half his margin of victory in 2008, why would NC and VA have shifted so that much more to the left in just three and a half years when VA wasn't kind at all to Obama in 2010?

Doesn't really matter though, four months is a very long time politically given that the economy has stalled.

It hasn't really stalled. It looks like Obama's typical summer slowdown. The euro crisis looks like it's in a holding pattern for now which could bring relief to companies. Hiring could very well pick up in the fall.

[Minnesota Mike]

How could Obama be matching his 2008 performance in VA and NC?  Doesn't make sense.

Care to explain why it doesn't make sense?

If you assume Obama is up 3-4 points nationally, which is half his margin of victory in 2008, why would NC and VA have shifted so that much more to the left in just three and a half years when VA wasn't kind at all to Obama in 2010?

Doesn't really matter though, four months is a very long time politically given that the economy has stalled.

The 2012 electorate is not going to be like the 2010 electorate. It will be larger, younger and have more people of color.

Virginia and North Carolina are trending Democratic compared to the nation as whole and I expect that to continue. If the nation swings 3 or 4 points towards the Republicans it makes perfect sense to me that VA and NC would stay about where they were in 2008.

[Smash255]

How could Obama be matching his 2008 performance in VA and NC?  Doesn't make sense.

Care to explain why it doesn't make sense?

If you assume Obama is up 3-4 points nationally, which is half his margin of victory in 2008, why would NC and VA have shifted so that much more to the left in just three and a half years when VA wasn't kind at all to Obama in 2010?

Doesn't really matter though, four months is a very long time politically given that the economy has stalled.

Both VA & NC have been shifting Democratic for the last several elections.  2010 was a midterm, the turnout dynamics are going to be very different this time, granted its not going to be the same as 08 either, but its at least a Presidential election.

Regardless it makes sense that both VA & NC are going to trend a few points more Democratic than the rest of the nation. 

When it comes down to it I would generally expect the margin in NC to be roughly 2-3 points more friendly to the GOP than the nation, and in VA I would say about 3-4 points more Democratic than the nation.