WI (PPP): Hovde leads Thompson AND Baldwin

[AmericanNation]

I still want Thompson but Hovde leading Tammy this soon is quite a surprise. And Thompson is apparently only tied with her? This one seems fishy.

Hovde has spent the most money, no one has gone negative, and the primary is like the presidential -- Thompson vs. Anti Thompson.  These numbers keep up and you will see something negative on Hovde from Neumann and/or Thompson.  He's an unknown quantity, so It will be interesting to see how he takes fire from two directions, if this poll is any good.  I still can't believe how good this field of candidates is... wow.        

[AmericanNation]

Am I reading this right in their release, that Thompson's general electorate favorability rating is 40%, and unfavorability rating is 47%?  What the heck happened to the guy who won his last statewide race by 20 points?  Granted, that was more than 10 years ago, but why would his numbers have tanked that badly?

Not sure where you're getting that from.  Maybe the #'s vs. "someone" more conservative?  He has the highest favorables AND he has high negatives from the very conservatives who would prefer someone MORE conservative.  

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable........................................................ 56%
Unfavorable .................................................... 28%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%


                                                      Base / Tea Party ID
                                                                Yes - No - Not sure
Thompson or Someone More Conservative?
Tommy Thompson                           34% 20% 40% 33%
Someone more conservative          50% 68% 43% 44%
Not sure                                         17% 13% 16% 23%

Edit: I see where you got it.  That 2008 cross tab on page 19 looks all messed up.     

[AmericanNation]

Since when is Tommy Thompson too liberal for the GOP? I can at least understand why Castle lost in the primary, but Tommy Thompson!?

He isn't.  Age is a factor that combines with the very conservatives hoping for a better option.  The guy is 71 and hasn't been "in" state politics for 10 years.  The Party has moved right since then, but Tommy wasn't "too Liberal" he made shrewd deals with liberals who controlled the legislature most of the time he was governor.  His opponents will say "HE" grew government 100% while in office, when really he bought off dems to get the most 'Conservative' policy innovations of the 80's and 90's done.  Presiding over a booming economy allows you that option.  He lead conservatives out of the wilderness in Wisconsin (like Moses lead the jews out of Egypt), so I don't buy them turning their back on him, they are just exploring options.

The People who oppose Tommy say things like:
"I want some new blood"
"I want someone who can hold the seat for two or three terms" 
"I want a SPENDING cuter, that's not Tommy."

People who support Tommy say:
"I want to win the seat. PERIOD."

Am I reading this right in their release, that Thompson's general electorate favorability rating is 40%, and unfavorability rating is 47%?  What the heck happened to the guy who won his last statewide race by 20 points?  Granted, that was more than 10 years ago, but why would his numbers have tanked that badly?

Not sure where you're getting that from.  Maybe the #'s vs. "someone" more conservative?  He has the highest favorables AND he has high negatives from the very conservatives who would prefer someone MORE conservative.   

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable........................................................ 56%
Unfavorable .................................................... 28%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

No, those are the numbers for the GOP primary electorate.  The first half of the release is the GOP primary poll, while the second half is the general election poll.  The general election part has:

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable........................................................ 40%
Unfavorable .................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

PPP's writeup makes that clear, when they say that Thompson's favorability is underwater at -7%.

Yea I know the distinction, they look messed up.  A guy who is 75%-to-95% likely to have a floor of 51%-to-53% in the general doesn't have a negative 7 approval ratting.  Maybe if you take the 60% of Republicans who aren't supporting him in the primary out of the general approval it makes sense.  You should really add them in though because 95% of them will for sure support him.