WI: Fascist Israel

[Free Palestine]

I ask this entirely out of curiosity, and not to be an anti-Israel troll:

I have never quite written a real timeline.  With my interest in the Israel-Palestine conflict, which involved a lot of rapid learning on the subject, I thought of an interesting idea for a "debut" timeline, which I like because it's an interesting idea, not so much because of my political views:

With a POD some time after Israel's founding, Israel becomes a genuinely authoritarian, fascistic state, perhaps Kahaneist in particular.

Any ideas, for how such a thing could happen?  I'm looking for a POD soon after or before the Six Day War, ideally.

[Old Europe]

What about a more socialist (or outright communist) Israel which ends up on the Soviet Union's side during the Cold war? Which means that the PLO would probably be co-funded and trained by the CIA in this TL.

[Senator Snowstalker]

[Free Palestine]

What about a more socialist (or outright communist) Israel which ends up on the Soviet Union's side during the Cold war? Which means that the PLO would probably be co-funded and trained by the CIA in this TL.

Well, I was thinking more far-right rather than far-left.  That's what I was planning for the TL, anyways.

[The Mikado]

Ernest is going to love this.

[True Federalist]

Ernest is going to love this.

Given the subject matter, I'll need to watch this one carefully.  (I've already had to delete one comment from the peanut gallery.)  However, there's no reason such a timeline would be impossible to write without veering into trollery.  That said, I strongly suggest you make any historical parallels to Fascist Italy, Falangist Spain, and the Portuguese Estado Novo rather than Nazi Germany.  For one thing, they'd be more believable.

[CathKhan]

What about a more socialist (or outright communist) Israel which ends up on the Soviet Union's side during the Cold war? Which means that the PLO would probably be co-funded and trained by the CIA in this TL.

This would actually be really interesting.

[Vosem]

Doing this with our timeline's Israel is very, very tricky, as Israel was totally dominated by the left until the 1970s, so before that when you have interesting details like legitimately hostile Arab states it's nearly impossible to accomplish. You can make Kahane have more MKs, but actually taking over without some sort of moderation is a nonstarter; in the 1984-1988 Knesset when he was a member, every single party boycotted his speeches, and they would band together to prevent him from coming to power -- not to mention that he didn't have very much support from the populace as a whole.

The most promising thing I can think of is in the immediate aftermath of the declaration of the State of Palestine, many Orthodox settlers were afraid that Israel would pull out of the West Bank, entirely or in large part, and planned to declare a rival, halakhic 'State of Judea' in reaction to such a pullout. It's not hard to get a State of Judea declared if set boundaries give most of the West Bank to Palestine, but making such a state successful is very difficult, as not all settlers would support it, and both Israel and Palestine would work together to crush it, and the settlements are spread out enough that it would be difficult for the 'Judeans' to take and hold land (the same problem the Syrian rebels are facing now). Such a timeline would take more research than the anti-Israeli propaganda you (I presume, considering your opinions) get your news and history from.

What about a more socialist (or outright communist) Israel which ends up on the Soviet Union's side during the Cold war? Which means that the PLO would probably be co-funded and trained by the CIA in this TL.

This would actually be really interesting.

This is very possible and could've really occurred; in 1948 the war was not particularly connected to the Cold War at large. Israel tilted toward the West because politicians supported it (to get the Jewish vote), whereas Stalin became anti-Semitic late in life and was allegedly planning to deport all the Soviet Jews to Birobidzhan before his death. To get this, first you would have to remove Stalin, probably shortly after the end of the war (1948-1950 or thereabouts) and replace him with someone who would be staunchly pro-Israel; Lazar Kaganovich comes to mind as probably the best bet. (This produces lots of interesting butterflies, as Kaganovich was exceptionally longlived, not dying until 1992, and was an unrepentant Stalinist hardliner until his death; no Secret Speech ITTL). In the US, you would have to remove Truman and replace him with someone who is not as favorable to Israel; Jews were even more staunchly Democratic at the time than they are now, so a two-term Dewey Administration could be sufficient -- Dewey was not anti-Semitic but he wouldn't be viewed as being as pro-Israel as Kaganovich. If you can butterfly away the rise of Nasserism, you could have Israel end up on the leftist side of the Cold War and the Arabs on the right. This would be interesting because it's doubtful Israel would cease to be a legitimately democratic state (some kind of eventual turn to the right is inevitable by the 1970s, maybe '80s -- and then what?), and they would probably still be able to win the day in '67 and '73-equivalents, which has further butterflies for American politics. Whether some sort of Christian fundamentalist admiration for Israel might emerge anyway ("Israel is necessary for Jesus to come back") and whether this would then be tied into support for radical-leftist policies in the US would be interesting to see.

That was much longer than I intended, but the point is it would be a whole different world.

[Free Palestine]

Thanks for the insight, Vosem.

I was actually thinking of the POD that leads to a fascist Israel occurring before it's founding, thus altering the state's entire history.

I was thinking of butterflying Hitler away, as a POD.  World War I might end up roughly the same, Germany goes communist, and the Holocaust is butterflied away.

I'd have to think of how to morph the character of early Zionism.  Perhaps Ben-Gurion pulls a Mussolini?  I don't know.  National Zionism (lol) can't just come out of nowhere, of course -- it needs some sort of cause.

[Vosem]

The problem with butterflying Hitler is that without government-sanctioned anti-Semitism there was no reason for the Jews to leave Europe and emigrate to Palestine. An interesting alternative might be to make the Nazis slightly less evil/batsh**t crazy and instead of killing them all have Hitler deport them all to Palestine, where they may form a Nazi-affiliated state. In addition to the changes in the makeup and thoughts of the German leadership in such a scenario, you would also have to have somebody other than the British control Palestine -- someone willing to let the Jews in. The main possibilities are some sort of surviving Ottoman state or the Hashemites, but neither of those are conducive to what you're doing. The best thing to have in Palestine is total anarchy, and the likeliest way to do that is to have WW1 finish roughly on course but then have Britain fall to some sort of internal revolution (I'm sure you'd enjoy writing about that) that throws the colonies into chaos. In the chaos, a Jewish state is declared in Palestine and is reinforced by people deported from Germany by Diet Nazis -- in the aftermath, the state is controlled by the military. What you need to get that sort of chaos is a lot of pressure on Britain -- the Great Depression coinciding with some sort of war with somebody -- if you want to work America in, you could have a rise of fascism locally result in a war with Canada and by default the rest of the Commonwealth.

This is how it would work, to summarize: an alternate Great Depression results in the far-right taking power in the US while the Nazis in Germany are in a sort of uneasy alliance with the old Prussian aristocracy (a moderating influence, though we are obviously speaking relatively). Righties in the US start a war with Canada and the Commonwealth; this war lasts for some time. On the continent, WW2 fails to break out; Germany is contained by a Franco-Italo-Soviet axis (Mussolini was not, at the start of things, very friendly with the Nazis). After the US-Commonwealth war has gone on for a while, with the US generally winning, an internal socialist revolution topples the British government and the colonies all go to hell, with European powers trying to intervene. A Jewish state is declared in Palestine; Germany deports lots of Jews there, and after the war the state ends up a military dictatorship.

[True Federalist]

One of the primary interests the wacky Brits had in Palestine was to enable them to build and control a Cairo to Baghdad railway.  The original Sykes–Picot Agreement had a territory roughly corresponding to the northern half of Mandatory Palestine as a zone to be jointly administered by the big three powers of Britain, France, and Russia as a possible future Jewish homeland.

The French were never happy with the idea of a tripartite condominium, and there was a proposal for the area to be made a Belgian mandate instead.  Italy also was a possibility.  After all, the King of Italy was also one of the claimants to the defunct title of King of Jerusalem from the days of the Crusader states.

[The Mikado]

After all, the King of Italy was also one of the claimants to the defunct title of King of Jerusalem from the days of the Crusader states.

As was...just about every other monarchy in Europe.  "King of Jerusalem" is one of those titles that basically everyone had.

[True Federalist]

After all, the King of Italy was also one of the claimants to the defunct title of King of Jerusalem from the days of the Crusader states.

As was...just about every other monarchy in Europe.  "King of Jerusalem" is one of those titles that basically everyone had.

True, but the King of Italy was the only Allied monarch who had one of those titles, and Italy didn't end up with any of the Mandates.  They would have needed to do better in World War I than they did to earn any, but this is an alternate history board.

[Free Palestine]

The problem with butterflying Hitler is that without government-sanctioned anti-Semitism there was no reason for the Jews to leave Europe and emigrate to Palestine. An interesting alternative might be to make the Nazis slightly less evil/batsh**t crazy and instead of killing them all have Hitler deport them all to Palestine, where they may form a Nazi-affiliated state. In addition to the changes in the makeup and thoughts of the German leadership in such a scenario, you would also have to have somebody other than the British control Palestine -- someone willing to let the Jews in. The main possibilities are some sort of surviving Ottoman state or the Hashemites, but neither of those are conducive to what you're doing. The best thing to have in Palestine is total anarchy, and the likeliest way to do that is to have WW1 finish roughly on course but then have Britain fall to some sort of internal revolution (I'm sure you'd enjoy writing about that) that throws the colonies into chaos. In the chaos, a Jewish state is declared in Palestine and is reinforced by people deported from Germany by Diet Nazis -- in the aftermath, the state is controlled by the military. What you need to get that sort of chaos is a lot of pressure on Britain -- the Great Depression coinciding with some sort of war with somebody -- if you want to work America in, you could have a rise of fascism locally result in a war with Canada and by default the rest of the Commonwealth.

This is how it would work, to summarize: an alternate Great Depression results in the far-right taking power in the US while the Nazis in Germany are in a sort of uneasy alliance with the old Prussian aristocracy (a moderating influence, though we are obviously speaking relatively). Righties in the US start a war with Canada and the Commonwealth; this war lasts for some time. On the continent, WW2 fails to break out; Germany is contained by a Franco-Italo-Soviet axis (Mussolini was not, at the start of things, very friendly with the Nazis). After the US-Commonwealth war has gone on for a while, with the US generally winning, an internal socialist revolution topples the British government and the colonies all go to hell, with European powers trying to intervene. A Jewish state is declared in Palestine; Germany deports lots of Jews there, and after the war the state ends up a military dictatorship.

Originally my thought was that no Nazis and no Holocaust would mean fewer Jews in Palestine, and thus perhaps more of a "threatened" feeling among Jewish settlers, which somehow has a part in the rise of fascism among the Zionists.

But then I remembered that you'd have six million more Jews in Europe, who might like to settle in Palestine.

Looking at population figures, there was a huge jump in Jewish population from 1931 to 1947.  So perhaps my original assessment would be right.

I'll take that all into account, Vosem.  And I thank you for being willing to help me with this a bit.

[enigmajones]

After all, the King of Italy was also one of the claimants to the defunct title of King of Jerusalem from the days of the Crusader states.

Totally gonna use that in my timeline.

[© Tweed the Younger]

why do we need a what-if for this?

[enigmajones]

why do we need a what-if for this?

 Well Israel is no doubt a populist, militaristic, garrison state, it still holds democratic (ish) elections.