WI-"The far superior pollster (© Krazen) Marquette" has Obama up 8

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Wisconsin Republicans took the last few weeks off (after the recall), are just starting to pay attention to the senate primary, and have yet to put any focus on the presidential race.  Given that, Obama seems to be up 1-to-3 points.  Something like 51-49.   

How do you take two polls: one saying Obama +8 and the other Obama +6, and say he "seems to be up 1-to-3 points"? Clearly two different polls have shown he's up by at least 5.

Obama polls at 51, 50, 49, 48 etc in Wisconsin.  Romney polls between 44 and 46ish.  Several polls showed the state 45-45.  The state is distracted and Romney hasn't done anything in the state yet.  Obama is hitting a hard ceiling and Romney is on his floor.

If you think five points less than in 2008 is a "hard ceiling", I don't know what to say to you.

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Someone has no idea about how undecided voters work.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Wisconsin Republicans took the last few weeks off (after the recall), are just starting to pay attention to the senate primary, and have yet to put any focus on the presidential race.  Given that, Obama seems to be up 1-to-3 points.  Something like 51-49.   

How do you take two polls: one saying Obama +8 and the other Obama +6, and say he "seems to be up 1-to-3 points"? Clearly two different polls have shown he's up by at least 5.

Obama polls at 51, 50, 49, 48 etc in Wisconsin.  Romney polls between 44 and 46ish.  Several polls showed the state 45-45.  The state is distracted and Romney hasn't done anything in the state yet.  Obama is hitting a hard ceiling and Romney is on his floor.

If you think five points less than in 2008 is a "hard ceiling", I don't know what to say to you.

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Someone has no idea about how undecided voters work.

So you think Obama will out preform Romney with undecideds?  LOL.  That is not how it works. 

So you think Romney will win over 80% of undecideds? LOL. That is not how it works.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Wisconsin Republicans took the last few weeks off (after the recall), are just starting to pay attention to the senate primary, and have yet to put any focus on the presidential race.  Given that, Obama seems to be up 1-to-3 points.  Something like 51-49.   

How do you take two polls: one saying Obama +8 and the other Obama +6, and say he "seems to be up 1-to-3 points"? Clearly two different polls have shown he's up by at least 5.

Obama polls at 51, 50, 49, 48 etc in Wisconsin.  Romney polls between 44 and 46ish.  Several polls showed the state 45-45.  The state is distracted and Romney hasn't done anything in the state yet.  Obama is hitting a hard ceiling and Romney is on his floor.

If you think five points less than in 2008 is a "hard ceiling", I don't know what to say to you.

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Someone has no idea about how undecided voters work.

So you think Obama will out preform Romney with undecideds?  LOL.  That is not how it works. 

So you think Romney will win over 80% of undecideds? LOL. That is not how it works.

No.  Romney is likely to gain a few percent and will win something at least 60% of undecideds.  Pretty routine sequence of events really.   

52-48, which you claimed as best-case for Obama, means Romney wins over 80% of undecideds. Elementary-school maths.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Maybe read the first part of the sentence.

You mean the part that you added after I posted?

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And where do you get this number from? Random wishful thinking?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

No.  Romney is likely to gain a few percent and will win something at least 60% of undecideds.  Pretty routine sequence of events really.   

52-48, which you claimed as best-case for Obama, means Romney wins over 80% of undecideds. Elementary-school maths.

Maybe read the first part of the sentence.

You mean the part that you added after I posted?
If the race is 48-45 Obama [...]

And where do you get this number from? Random wishful thinking?

A composite of polls, intelligence, and trends.  Obama is up, but he isn't above 50 and he isn't up 8.  Just like Tammy Baldwin isn't tied with Tommy Thompson like PPP said yesterday.  Use your head with this stuff, everyone knows the weights or sample might be slightly off.     

OK, guy. Obama got 56% in 2008, if you believe his ceiling is 52% and that this poll, as well as the PPP one, is overestimating him, wait and see in november what happens . I think that even if he loses the election, Obama will carry Wisconsin by at least 4-6 points.

That is probably his best case scenario given that from 2010 through 2012 no democrat has won statewide in Wisconsin and given how strong the nature of that trend has been. 

No Democrat won statewide in a lean-D state in 1) the worst election for Democrats in modern history and 2) recalls? I'm stunned.

Paul Ryan basically is a new version of Jack Kemp.  Ryan was a Kemp congressional aide.   

Also, the polling aggregate for Wisconsin is 47- 44 Obama right now, so my model of 48 - 45 is really unreasonable.  O, wait...   

The polling aggregate is currently composed of two-thirds junk polls.